OECD ÜLKELERİNDE YAŞLANMA PROFİLLERİNİN HARİTALANMASI: NÜFUS YAŞLANMASI, YAŞAM BEKLENTİSİ VE SAĞLIK HARCAMALARININ KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, OECD ülkelerindeki yaşlanma eğilimleri 2000–2023 dönemine ait ikincil veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analize 38 ülkenin 65 yaş ve üzerindeki nüfus oranı, doğuşta yaşam beklentisi ve cari sağlık harcamalarının gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla içindeki payı dâhil edilmiştir. Çalışmada tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve trend analizinin yanı sıra, ülke ortalamalarına dayalı Pearson korelasyon analizi ve K-means kümeleme analizi kullanılmıştır. OECD genelinde 65 yaş ve üzerindeki nüfusun ortalama payı 2000 yılında %13,12 iken 2023 yılında %18,74’e yükselmiştir. Nüfus yaşlanması, yaşam beklentisiyle (r = 0,341; p = 0,036) ve sağlık harcamalarıyla (r = 0,415; p = 0,010) pozitif yönde ilişkili bulunmuştur. Yaşam beklentisi ile sağlık harcamaları arasında da pozitif bir ilişki belirlenmiştir (r = 0,516; p = 0,001). Kümeleme analizi, nüfus yaşlanması, yaşam beklentisi ve sağlık harcamalarının farklı birleşimlerini yansıtan dört ülke profili ortaya koymuştur. Bulgular, nüfus yaşlanması ile sağlık harcamalarının ilişkili olduğunu, ancak benzer yaşlanma düzeylerinin ülkeler arasında aynı harcama ve yaşam beklentisi örüntülerini doğurmadığını göstermektedir. Bu nedenle yaşlanmaya yönelik politikaların, ülkelerin demografik yapıları ve mevcut sağlık sistemi kapasiteleri dikkate alınarak geliştirilmesi; sağlıklı yaşlanma, koruyucu hizmetler ve bakım koordinasyonunun birlikte ele alınması önem taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• nüfus yaşlanması
• sağlık harcamaları
• OECD ülkeleri
• yaşam beklentisi
• kümeleme analizi

MAPPING AGEING PROFILES IN OECD COUNTRIES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POPULATION AGEING, LIFE EXPECTANCY AND HEALTH EXPENDITURE

Öz

This study examines population ageing trends in OECD countries using secondary data for the period 2000–2023. The analysis includes the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, life expectancy at birth, and current health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product for 38 countries. In addition to descriptive statistics and trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis based on country-level averages and K-means cluster analysis were conducted. The average proportion of the population aged 65 years and over across OECD countries increased from 13.12% in 2000 to 18.74% in 2023. Population ageing was positively associated with life expectancy (r = 0.341, p = 0.036) and healthcare expenditure (r = 0.415, p = 0.010). A positive relationship was also found between life expectancy and healthcare expenditure (r = 0.516, p = 0.001). The cluster analysis identified four country profiles reflecting different combinations of population ageing, life expectancy, and healthcare expenditure. The findings show that population ageing is associated with healthcare expenditure, but countries with similar ageing levels do not necessarily display the same spending and life expectancy patterns. Policies addressing population ageing should therefore take account of national demographic conditions and existing health-system capacity, while combining healthy ageing, preventive services, and care coordination.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• population ageing
• healthcare expenditure
• OECD countries
• life expectancy
• cluster analysis

Kaynakça

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