The Contribution of Algerian Dates to Economic Diversification and Export Competitiveness: An Application of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Gravity Model (1995–2023)

Öz

The Algerian economy remains highly exposed to external shocks owing to its persistent reliance on hydrocarbon exports. This study assesses the contribution of the date-palm industry to economic diversification and external competitiveness. A dynamic gravity model is estimated by Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on bilateral data covering 1995-2023, with descriptive figures extended to 2025 through CAGR-based projections. The specification incorporates three-dimensional fixed effects (μ_it,ν_jt,λ_ij) and one period lags of the diversification indices (HHIG,shareDAT). Empirical results indicate a high price elasticity of export demand (-2.42), a substantial restrictive effect of sanitary notifications ( a single RASFF alert reduces bilateral flows by about 23%), and a sectoral expansion driven by the extensive margin. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that an integrated strategy could raise exports by up to 38.1% (conditional upper-bound estimate) and generate roughly USD 140 million in additional annual revenue, with a benefit-cost ratio of 4.6.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Algerian dates
• export diversification
• international competitiveness
• gravity model
• PPML

Destekleyen Kurum

NONE

Proje Numarası

NONE

Etik Beyan

As this study uses secondary data from public sources , literature review and does not involve human subjects or animal experiments, ethical approval was not required.

Teşekkür

NONE

Cezayir Hurmasının Ekonomik Çeşitliliğe ve İhracat Rekabet Gücüne Katkısı: Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Yöntemiyle Dinamik Çekim Modeli Uygulaması (1995–2023)

Öz

Cezayir ekonomisi, hidrokarbon ihracatına olan süregelen bağımlılığı nedeniyle dış şoklara karşı son derece savunmasız durumdadır. Bu çalışma, hurma endüstrisinin ekonomik çeşitlendirme ve dış rekabet gücüne katkısını değerlendirmektedir. Dinamik bir yerçekimi modeli, 1995-2023 dönemini kapsayan ikili veriler üzerinde Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir; açıklayıcı rakamlar ise CAGR temelli tahminler yoluyla 2025 yılına kadar uzatılmıştır. Spesifikasyon, üç boyutlu sabit etkiler (μ_it,ν_jt,λ_ij) ve çeşitlendirme endekslerinin (HHIG, shareDAT) bir dönem gecikmelerini içermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, ihracat talebinin yüksek fiyat esnekliğini (-2,42), sağlık bildirimlerinin önemli bir kısıtlayıcı etkisini (tek bir RASFF uyarısı ikili akışları yaklaşık %23 oranında azaltmaktadır) ve genişleme marjı tarafından yönlendirilen sektörel genişlemeyi göstermektedir. Karşı olasılıklı politika simülasyonları, entegre bir stratejinin ihracatı %38,1'e kadar artırabileceğini (koşullu üst sınır tahmini) ve yaklaşık 140 milyon ABD doları ek yıllık gelir yaratabileceğini, bunun da 4,6'lık bir fayda-maliyet oranına karşılık geldiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cezayir hurması
• ihracat çeşitlendirme
• uluslararası rekabet gücü
• yerçekimi

Destekleyen Kurum

YOK

Proje Numarası

NONE

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma, kamu kaynaklarından elde edilen ikincil verileri ve literatür incelemesini kullanmakta olup, insan denekleri veya hayvan deneylerini içermemektedir, bu nedenle etik onay gerekmemiştir.

Teşekkür

YOK

Kaynakça

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