Kurumlar Vergisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Özelinde Fourier Temelli Bir Analiz

Öz

Teorik olarak kurumlar vergisinin ekonomik büyümeye zarar verici etkisi sıklıkla vurgulanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, son çalışmalar kurumlar vergisi oranlarındaki indirimlerinin ekonomik büyüme oranlarını her zaman arttırmayacağının altını çizmektedirler. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye özelinde kurumlar vergisinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin ne olduğuna ilişkin yeterli düzeyde kanıt bulunmamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, bu çalışmada 1965-2024 yıllarını kapsayan dönem için Fourier temelli ekonometrik tekniklerini kullanarak Türkiye’de kurumlar vergisi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini analiz etmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, kurumlar vergisi ve ekonomik büyüme serileri uzun dönemde yapısal kırılmalar altında birlikte hareket etmektedirler. Bu doğrultuda yürütülen uzun dönem tahmin sınamaları, kurumlar vergisinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Farklı yapısal özelliklere sahip üç tahmincinin ortalamasına göre, yapısal kırılmalar altında kurumlar vergisindeki %1’lik artış ekonomik büyümeyi %0.084 azaltıcı bir etkiye sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kurumlar Vergisi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Türkiye
• Fourier

Corporate Tax and Economic Growth: A Fourier-Based Analysis in the Context of Türkiye

Öz

Theoretically, the detrimental effect of corporate tax on economic growth is often emphasized. However, recent studies emphasize that reductions in corporate tax rates do not always increase economic growth rates. In this regard, there is insufficient evidence regarding the impact of corporate tax on economic growth in Türkiye. Within this scope, this study analyzes the relationship between corporate tax and economic growth in Türkiye for the period 1965-2024 using Fourier-based econometric techniques. According to the analysis results, corporate tax and economic growth series move together under structural breaks in the long term. Long-term estimation tests indicate that corporate tax has a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth. According to the average of three estimators with different structural properties, a 1% increase in corporate tax under structural breaks has a negative effect on economic growth of 0.084%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Corporate Tax
• Economic Growth
• Türkiye
• Fourier

Kaynakça

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