The Impact of Retail and E-commerce Sales on Inflation Including the Covid-19 Period: Evidence from Turkiye

Yıl 2023, , 1 - 13, 30.12.2023

Hasan Kazak , Mustafa Kavacık , Ahmet Tayfur Akcan

https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1341533

Öz

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of retail or online shopping on the producer price index before and during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Thus, the impact of crisis periods will be clearly revealed. For this reason, In the study, data between January 2010 and November 2022 are used in the case of Turkey. As a result of the empirical analyses, it was determined that the causality relationship between the Producer Price Index and the Internet and Mail Order Turnover Index, which was valid in every canton without exception until the Covid-19 pandemic, disappeared with the pandemic. No causal relationship has been identified from Internet and Mail Orders Turnover Index to Producer Price Index. While bi-directional causality was detected between Retail Turnover Index and Producer Price Index in some quantiles, unidirectional causality was detected from Producer Price Index to Retail Turnover Index in some quantiles.

Anahtar Kelimeler

E-commerce sales, Retail sales, Inflation, Fourier test, Covid-19

Covid-19 Dönemi Dahil Perakende ve E-ticaret Satışlarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Covid-19 pandemi dönemi öncesi ve döneminde perakende veya online alışverişin üretici fiyat endeksi üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmektir. Böylece kriz dönemlerinin etkisi net bir şekilde ortaya konulacaktır. Bu nedenle çalışmada Türkiye örneğinde Ocak 2010 ile Kasım 2022 tarihleri arasındaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik analizler sonucunda, Covid-19 pandemisine kadar istisnasız her kantonda geçerli olan Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ile İnternet ve Posta Siparişi Ciro Endeksi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin pandemi ile birlikte ortadan kalktığı tespit edilmiştir. İnternet ve Posta Siparişi Ciro Endeksi'nden Üretici Fiyat Endeksi'ne doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Perakende Ciro Endeksi ile Üretici Fiyat Endeksi arasında bazı niceliklerde çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilirken, bazı niceliklerde Üretici Fiyat Endeksi'nden Perakende Ciro Endeksi'ne doğru tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

E-ticaret satışları, Perakende satışlar, Enflasyon, Fourier testi, Covid-19

Kaynakça

• Abdioğlu, Z., & Korkmaz, Ö. (2012). Price transmission between consumer and producer price indices: Sub-sectors. Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Business Administrative Sciences, 16(2), 65–81.
• Akcay, S. (2011). The causal relationship between producer price index and consumer price index: Empirical evidence from selected European countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), 227–232. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v3n6p227
• Batarfi, R., Jaber, M. Y., & Zanoni, S. (2016). Dual-channel supply chain: A strategy to maximize profit. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 40(21–22), 9454–9473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.06.008
• Bilgicer, T., Jedidi, K., Lehmann, D. R., & Neslin, S. A. (2015). Social contagion and customer adoption of new sales channels. Journal of Retailing, 91(2), 254–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2014.12.006
• Calson-Öhman, F. (2018). The effect of increased e-commerce on inflation. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1214628/FULLTEXT01.pdf.
• Cavallo, A. (2018). More Amazon effects: Online competition and pricing behaviors. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25138
• Charbonneau, K. B., Evans, A., Sarker, S., & Suchanek, L. (2017). Digitalization and inflation: A review of the literature. https://www.banqueducanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/san2017-20.pdf
• Chen, K.-Y., Kaya, M., & Özer, Ö. (2008). Dual sales channel management with service competition. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 10(4), 654–675. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0177
• Cheng, K., Hsueh, H.-P., Ranjbar, O., Wang, M.-C., & Chang, T. (2021). Urbanization, coal consumption and CO2 emissions nexus in China using bootstrap Fourier Granger causality test in quantiles. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 14, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-020-00263-0
• Çoban, M. N. (2022). The Effect of the Internet on Inflation: A Research on ASEAN-5 Countries. JAS (Journal of ASEAN Studies), 10(1). https://doi.org/10.21512/jas.v10i1.7310
• Duca, J. V., & VanHoose Jr, D. D. (2000). Has greater competition restrained US inflation? Southern Economic Journal, 66(3), 729–741. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2000.tb00284.x
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
• Erdem, H. F., & Yamak, R. (2014). The Transitivity Degree between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(4), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.25661
• Eryüzlü, H. (2020). E-Ticaretin Enflasyona Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 23(2), 394–400. https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.637665
• Eştürk, Ö., & Albayrak, N. (2018). Investigation of the relationship between agricultural products-food price increases and inflation. ÜİİİD-IJEAS, 18, 147–158. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.353991
• Fabo, B., & Slovenska, N. B. (2018). Implications of e-commerce for central banking: A review. SSRN. https://www.nbs.sk/_img/documents/_publik_nbs_fsr/biatec/rok2018/04-2018/07_biatec4_fabo.pdf
• Gabrielsson, M., Kirpalani, V. M., & Luostarinen, R. (2002). Multiple channel strategies in the European personal computer industry. Journal of International Marketing, 10(3), 73–95. https://doi.org/10.1509/jimk.10.3.73.19542
• Goolsbee, A. D., & Klenow, P. J. (2018). Internet rising, prices falling: Measuring inflation in a world of e-commerce. Aea Papers and Proceedings, 108, 488–492. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181038
• Ha, A. Y., Luo, H., & Shang, W. (2022). Supplier encroachment, information sharing, and channel structure in online retail platforms. Production and Operations Management, 31(3), 1235–1251. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13607
• Hatemi-J, A., & Uddin, G. S. (2012). Is the causal nexus of energy utilization and economic growth asymmetric in the US? Economic Systems, 36(3), 461–469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2011.10.005
• Hua, G., Wang, S., & Cheng, T. E. (2010). Price and lead time decisions in dual-channel supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 205(1), 113–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2009.12.012
• Huang, S., Guan, X., & Chen, Y.-J. (2018). Retailer information sharing with supplier encroachment. Production and Operations Management, 27(6), 1133–1147. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.12860
• Hübner, A., Wollenburg, J., & Holzapfel, A. (2016). Retail logistics in the transition from multi-channel to omni-channel. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 46(6/7), 562–583. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-08-2015-0179
• Jiang, T., Liu, T., Tang, K., & Zeng, J. (2022). Online prices and inflation during the nationwide COVID-19 quarantine period: Evidence from 107 Chinese websites. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103166
• Jo, Y. J., Matsumura, M., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The impact of e-commerce on relative prices and consumer welfare. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26506
• Koçak, N. A. (2021). Tüketici ve Üretici Fiyatları Arasında Geçişkenliğin Alternatif Ölçümü: Alt Endeksler Ayrımında Türkiye Örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 67, 12–27. https://doi.org/10.51290/dpusbe.739204
• Kulakov, M. V., & Vinogradov, A. A. (2020). Study on the impact of e-commerce development on inflation in the euro area. π-Economy, 13(2), 110–119. https://doi.org/10.18721/JE.13210
• Matolcsy, G., Nagy, M., Palotai, D., & Virág, B. (2020). Inflation in the digital age: Inflation measurement and bias in the 21st Century. Financial and Economic Review, 19(1), 5–36. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.19.1.536
• Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2018). Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Managerâ€TM s Index (PMI) in South Africa. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 10(6 (J)), 25–32. https://doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i6(J).2590
• Mols, N. P. (2000). Dual channels of distribution: A transaction cost analysis and propositions. The International Review of Retail, Distribution and Consumer Research, 10(3), 227–246. https://doi.org/10.1080/095939600405956
• Nakamura, A. O., Nakamura, E., & Nakamura, L. I. (2011). Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement. Journal of Econometrics, 161(1), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.09.005
• Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N. A., & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
• Öner. (2018b). YURT İÇİ ÜRETİCİ FİYAT ENDEKSİ İLE ALT ENFLASYON KALEMLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ. Uygulamalı Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2(1), 42–53. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.432268
• Öner, H. (2018a). Tüketici Ve üretici Fiyat Endeksleri Arasindaki i̇lişkinin Granger Nedensellik Testi Yoluyla i̇ncelenmesi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(1), 318–327. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.380397
• Ronayne, D., & Taylor, G. (2020). Competing sales channels. http://www.lcii.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/IODE4_Ronayne_CompetingSalesChannels.pdf
• Seifbarghy, M., & Kafshian Ahar, H. (2022). Price and Lead Time Decisions in a Dual-Channel Supply Chain with Traditional and Online Sales Channels Considering Centralized and Decentralized Conditions and Transportation Modes. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 12(1, Spring 2022), 135–159. https://doi.org/10.52547/jimp.12.135
• Sheng, J., & Lu, Q. (2020). The influence of information communication technology on farmers’ sales channels in environmentally affected areas of China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 42513–42529. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10203-6
• Steinfield, C., Bouwman, H., & Adelaar, T. (2002). The dynamics of click-and-mortar electronic commerce: Opportunities and management strategies. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 7(1), 93–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/10864415.2002.11044254
• Szolnoki, G., & Hoffmann, D. (2014). Consumer segmentation based on usage of sales channels in the German wine market. International Journal of Wine Business Research, 26(1), 27–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJWBR-10-2012-0028
• Terzi, H., & Tütüncü, A. (2017). Examination of the relationship between producer price index and consumer price index: ARDL bounds testing approach. Sosyoekonomi, 25(34), 173–186. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926
• TurkStat. (2023). National Data Sheet [Data Portal for Statistics]. Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). https://www.tuik.gov.tr
• Wang, C., Leng, M., & Liang, L. (2018). Choosing an online retail channel for a manufacturer: Direct sales or consignment? International Journal of Production Economics, 195, 338–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.11.001
• Widodo, E., Takahashi, K., Morikawa, K., Pujawan, I. N., & Santosa, B. (2011). Managing sales return in dual sales channel: Its product substitution and return channel analysis. International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 9(2), 121–149. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJISE.2011.042831
• Xia, Y., & Zhang, G. P. (2010). The impact of the online channel on retailers’ performances: An empirical evaluation. Decision Sciences, 41(3), 517–546. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.2010.00279.x
• Yang, H., Luo, J., & Zhang, Q. (2018). Supplier encroachment under nonlinear pricing with imperfect substitutes: Bargaining power versus revenue-sharing. European Journal of Operational Research, 267(3), 1089–1101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.12.027
• Yim, S. T., Son, J. C., & Lee, J. (2022). Spread of E-commerce, prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from online price big data in Korea. Journal of Asian Economics, 80, 101475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101475
• Zhang, C., Li, Y., & Ma, Y. (2021). Direct selling, agent selling, or dual-format selling: Electronic channel configuration considering channel competition and platform service. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 157, 107368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2021.107368
• Zhang, P., He, Y., & Shi, C. V. (2017). Retailer’s channel structure choice: Online channel, offline channel, or dual channels? International Journal of Production Economics, 191, 37–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.05.013
• Zhang, S., Zhang, J., & Zhu, G. (2019). Retail service investing: An anti-encroachment strategy in a retailer-led supply chain. Omega, 84, 212–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2018.05.005
• Zhang, T., Tang, Z., & Han, Z. (2022). Optimal online channel structure for multinational firms considering live streaming shopping. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, 56, 101198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.elerap.2022.101198
• Zheng, B., Chu, J., & Jin, L. (2021). Recycling channel selection and coordination in dual sales channel closed-loop supply chains. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 95, 484–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2021.02.022