The Impact of Retail and E-commerce Sales on Inflation Including the Covid-19 Period: Evidence from Turkiye

Öz

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of retail or online shopping on the producer price index before and during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Thus, the impact of crisis periods will be clearly revealed. For this reason, In the study, data between January 2010 and November 2022 are used in the case of Turkey. As a result of the empirical analyses, it was determined that the causality relationship between the Producer Price Index and the Internet and Mail Order Turnover Index, which was valid in every canton without exception until the Covid-19 pandemic, disappeared with the pandemic. No causal relationship has been identified from Internet and Mail Orders Turnover Index to Producer Price Index. While bi-directional causality was detected between Retail Turnover Index and Producer Price Index in some quantiles, unidirectional causality was detected from Producer Price Index to Retail Turnover Index in some quantiles.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• E-commerce sales
• Retail sales
• Inflation
• Fourier test
• Covid-19

Covid-19 Dönemi Dahil Perakende ve E-ticaret Satışlarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Covid-19 pandemi dönemi öncesi ve döneminde perakende veya online alışverişin üretici fiyat endeksi üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmektir. Böylece kriz dönemlerinin etkisi net bir şekilde ortaya konulacaktır. Bu nedenle çalışmada Türkiye örneğinde Ocak 2010 ile Kasım 2022 tarihleri arasındaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik analizler sonucunda, Covid-19 pandemisine kadar istisnasız her kantonda geçerli olan Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ile İnternet ve Posta Siparişi Ciro Endeksi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin pandemi ile birlikte ortadan kalktığı tespit edilmiştir. İnternet ve Posta Siparişi Ciro Endeksi'nden Üretici Fiyat Endeksi'ne doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Perakende Ciro Endeksi ile Üretici Fiyat Endeksi arasında bazı niceliklerde çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilirken, bazı niceliklerde Üretici Fiyat Endeksi'nden Perakende Ciro Endeksi'ne doğru tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• E-ticaret satışları
• Perakende satışlar
• Enflasyon
• Fourier testi
• Covid-19

Kaynakça

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