Evaluation of Empirical Modelling Techniques for the Estimation of Sediment Amount in Rivers

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 309 - 318, 12.12.2016

Başak Güven , Zeynep Akdoğan

https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.276942

Öz

The sediment transport processes of streams have
been the subject of research for many years. Sediment amount carried by a river is strongly correlated with the
river’s flow rate and sediment concentration. This study aims to represent this
correlation and to estimate the sediment amount using four different modelling
techniques: MLR, PLS, SVM, and ANN. Records
of river flow, sediment concentration and sediment amount obtained from the
Göksu River, located in the
Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey, are used
as input data in the models. The aim of is this study is to evaluate the
effectiveness of ANN modelling in the estimation of sediment amount carried by
river flow. Fifty percent of the data are used
as training set to develop the models. The other half of the data is used for
verification set. The performance of the four models is evaluated by
determination coefficient of prediction set (r²_pred). The
results indicate that ANN is the most effective method (r²_pred
= 0.94), followed by SVM (r²_pred = 0.72). MLR and PLS
methods are the least effective techniques (r²_pred =
0.67) for estimating sediment amount in the Göksu River. Therefore, ANN
approach is further studied to propose the best configuration for the
prediction of river sediment amount.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sediment amount, River, Modelling, ANN

NEHİRLERDE SEDİMENT MİKTARININ BELİRLENMESİNDE AMPİRİK MODELLEME TEKNİKLERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Öz

Nehirlerdeki sediment taşınım süreçleri uzun
yıllardır önemli bir araştırma konusu olmuştur. Nehirlerde taşınan sediment
miktarı, nehrin akımı ve sediment konsantrasyonu ile güçlü bir ilişki
içerisindedir. Bu çalışma, bu ilişkiyi göstermeyi ve dört farklı modelleme
tekniği olan MLR, PLS, SVM ve ANN
metotlarını kullanarak sediment miktarını hesaplamayı amaçlamaktadır.
Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz bölgesinde yer alan Göksu Nehri’ne ait akım, sediment
konsantrasyonu ve sediment miktarı modellerde girdi verisi olarak
kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, nehir akımıyla taşınan sediment miktarının
tahmin edilmesinde ANN modelleme tekniğinin etkisini değerlendirmektir.
Verilerin yüzde ellisi modelin geliştirilmesi için öğrenme seti olarak, kalan
veriler ise modelin validasyonu  için
test seti olarak kullanılmıştır. Test setinin belirleme katsayısı (r²_pred) dikkate alınarak dört
modelin performansı değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar ANN’nin en etkili yöntem
olduğunu (r²_pred = 0.94) ve onu SVM’nin takip ettiğini (r²_pred=0.72)
göstermektedir. MLR ve PLS ise Göksu Nehri’ndeki sediment miktarının
belirlenmesinde en az etkili yöntemlerdir 
(r²_pred = 0.67). Bu nedenle, nehirdeki sediment
miktarını tahmin etmek için en etkili yöntem, ANN’nin farklı konfigürasyonları çalışılarak
araştırılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sediment miktarı, Nehir, Modelleme, ANN

Kaynakça

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