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Verimlilik Yanlılığı Hipotezinin Doğrulanması: Seçilmiş Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2023, , 595 - 608, 27.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1309639

Öz

Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı, seçilmiş 10 büyük yükselen piyasa ekonomisinde verimlilik yanlılığı hipotezinin (VYH) geçerliliğini 1991-2021 dönemi için test etmektir.
Yöntem: Bu araştırmada yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri analiz yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda öncelikle birim-kök testiyle kullanılan değişkenlerin (nispi verimlilik ve reel döviz kuru) durağanlık dereceleri belirlenmiştir. Sonraki aşamada kesirli frekanslı esnek Fourier yapılı panel eş-bütünleşme testiyle modeldeki değişkenlerin eş-bütünleşik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Araştırmanın son aşamasında genişletilmiş ortalama grup (AMG) yöntemiyle uzun dönemde nispi verimliliğin reel döviz kurunu nasıl etkilediği bulunarak VYH’nin geçerliliği sınanmıştır.
Bulgular: Birincisi, nispi verimlilik ve reel döviz kuru hem oluşturulan panelde hem de paneldeki ülkelerin tamamında eş-bütünleşiktir. İkincisi, oluşturulan panelde ve paneldeki 10 ülkenin 8’inde (Çin, Mısır, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Kore, Polonya, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika) nispi verimliliğin uzun dönemde reel döviz kurunu artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, VYH’nin geçerliliğini doğrulamaktadır. Son olarak Brezilya ve Meksika’da VYH reddedilmiştir.
Özgünlük: Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde VYH’nin geçerliliğini inceleyen çalışma sayısı son derece sınırlıdır. Ayrıca bu araştırmada kullanılan panel eş-bütünleşme testi, kesirli frekanslı Fourier fonksiyonları yardımıyla, yapısal kırılmaları dikkate almaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Altıner, A. ve Bozkurt, E. (2020). "Yükselen Sanayi Ekonomilerinde Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Panel Veri Analizi" Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi (ASEAD), 7(12), 17-31.
  • Altunöz, U. (2014). "Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı", Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Anwar, S. ve Ali, S.Z. (2015). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from South Asia", Applied Economics Letters, 22(17), 1-6, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1034832.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A. (2005). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis and The Purchasing Power Parity: A Review Article", Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(4), 671-696, DOI: 10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00261.x.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A.B.M. (2004). "ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis", Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2004.00247.x.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nouira, R. (2021). "The Nonlinear ARDL Approach and Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from 68 Countries", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 80-89, DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.001
  • Balassa, B. (1964). "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal", Journal of Political Economy, 72(6), 584-596.
  • Baltagi, B.H., Feng, Q. ve Kao, C. (2012). "A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Cross-Sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model", Journal of Econometrics, 170(1), 164-177, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004.
  • Bank of Mexico. (2009). " Exchange Rate Regimes in Mexico Since 1954 ", Bank of Mexico, 1-13.
  • Bordo, M.D., Choudhri, E.U., Fazio, G. ve MacDonald, R. (2017). "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered", Journal of International Money and Finance, 75, 69–92, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.03.011.
  • Cassel, G. (1918). "Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges", The Economic Journal, 28(112), 413-415. DOI: 10.2307/2223329.
  • Chamon, M. ve Garcia, M. (2016). "Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective?", Journal of International Money and Finance, 61, 163-187, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.08.008.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve Leon-Ledesma, M.A. (2011). "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 15(3), 1-31, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1823.
  • Dada, J.T., Olomola, P.A. ve Ajide, F.M. (2020). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis: New Evidence from Parallel Market Exchange Rate", Economics, 8(1), 31-40, DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2020-0003.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431, DOI: 10.2307/2286348
  • Dünya Bankası. (2023). "Veri Tabanı", https://data.worldbank.org/indicator (Erişim Tarihi: 24.03.2023).
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Teal, F. (2010). "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series", Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Number: 515.
  • Eichler, M., Grass, M., Blöchliger, H. ve Ott, H. (2006). "Determinants of Productivity Growth", BAK Report, 1.
  • Eita, J.H., Khumalo, Z.Z. ve Choga, I. (2021). "Productivity and Real Exchange Rate: Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Misalignment in Five African Countries", Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 68(2), 177-194, DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2021-0011.
  • Ericsson, J. ve Irandoust, M. (2004). "The Productivity-Bias Hypothesis and the PPP Theorem: New Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Models", Japan and the World Economy, 16(2), 121-138, DOI: 10.1016/S0922- 1425(03)00015-X.
  • Garten, J.E. (1997). "The Big Ten: The Big Emerging Markets and How They will Change Our Lives", https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/g/garten-ten.html? scp=17&sq=korea%2520greece&st=cse, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.03.2023).
  • Gedikoğlu, B. ve Yolcu Karadam, D. (2021). "OECD Ülkelerinde Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Açıklanmasında Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi", Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 44, 73-90. DOI: 10.30794/pausbed.873742.
  • Ghosh, S., Nath, S. ve Srivastava, S. (2023). "Productivity and Real Exchange Rates for India: Does Balassa-Samuelson Effect Explain?", Indian Growth and Development Review, 16(1), 41-73. https://doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-11-2022-0130.
  • Halıcıoglu, F. ve Ketenci, N. (2018). "Testing the Productivity Bias Hypothesis in Middle East Countries", Journal of Economic Studies, 45(5), 922-931, DOI: 10.1108/JES-04-2017-0104.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2023). "Reprint of: Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels", Journal of Econometrics, 234, 56-69, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.002.
  • Imai, H. (2018). "China’s Rapid Growth ve Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson Effect", Journal of Asian Economics, 54, 39-52, DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.002.
  • Küçükaksoy, İ. ve Çifçi, İ. (2017). "Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye ve Dış Ticaret Ortakları Uygulaması", Dokuz Eylül Universitesi İktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 57-94, DOI: 10.24988/deuiibf.2017321547.
  • López-Marmolejo, A., Ventosa-Santaulària, D. ve Diaz Muro, G.S. (2023). "Inverse Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Mexico: The Role of the Oil Sector", Empirical Economics, 65, 2273-2300, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02427-5.
  • Njindan Iyke, B. ve Odhiambo, N.M. (2017)." An Empirical Test of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Evidence from Eight Middle-Income Countries in Africa", Economic Systems, 41(2), 297-304. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.10.001
  • Officer, L.H. (1976a). "The Productivity Bias in Purchasing Power Parity: An Econometric Investigation", Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund, 23(3), 545–579, DOI: 10.2307/3866641.
  • Officer, L.H. (1976b). "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Exchange Rates: A Review Article", Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund, 23(1), 1–60, DOI: 10.2307/3866665.
  • Olayeni, R.O., Tiwari, A.K. ve Wohar, M.E. (2021). "Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) for Panel Cointegration Test", Applied Economics Letters, 28(6), 482-486, DOI:10.1080/13504851.2020.1761526.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312, DOI:10.1002/jae.951.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2021). "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panels", Empirical Economics, 60(1), 13-50, DOI:10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7.
  • Samuelson, P.A. (1964). "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46(2), 145-154.
  • Tepekule, U. ve Ergen, E. (2022). "Verimlilik Artışı ve Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki İlişkinin Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi", Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(4), 187-200. DOI: 10.18026/cbayarsos.1099594
  • Vo, H.L. ve Vo, D.H. (2023). "The Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange‐Rate Economics Half a Century on", Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(2), 446-479, DOI: 10.1111/joes.12504.
  • Vural, G. (2020). "Verimlilik Yanlılığı Hipotezinin Gelecek 11 Ülkesi İçin İncelenmesi", Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 20 (40), 165-173.
  • Wang, W., Xue, J. ve Du, C. (2016). "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in the Developed and Developing Countries Revisited, Economics Letters, 146, 33-38, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.07.020.
  • Whitt, A.J.J. (1996). "The Mexican Peso Crisis", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta-Economic Review, 81(1), 1-20.
  • Yolcu Karadam, D. ve Gedikoğlu, B. (2021). "Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Farklı Gelir Grupları Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi", Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 30, 89-106, DOI: 0.18092/ulikidince.771888.

Validating the Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Economies

Yıl 2023, , 595 - 608, 27.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1309639

Öz

Purpose: This research tests the productivity bias hypothesis (PBH) in selected 10 big emerging market economies for the 1991-2021 period.
Methodology: Panel data methods that account for cross-sectional dependency are employed. Initially, the stationarity properties of the variables (relative productivity and real exchange rate) are determined via the unit-root test. In the next stage, the cointegration between the variables is confirmed using the fractional frequency flexible Fourier form (FFFFF) panel cointegration test. In the last stage, the augmented mean group (AMG) method is employed to estimate the long-run effect of relative productivity on the real exchange rate.
Findings: First, cointegration exists between relative productivity and real exchange rate in the panel and in all selected economies individually. Second, in the panel and in 8 out of 10 selected economies (China, Egypt, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Poland, Türkiye, and South Africa), the PBH is valid. Last, the PBH is not confirmed in Brazil and Mexico.
Originality: The number of studies that test the PBH in emerging market economies is rather limited. Additionally, this study uses the FFFFF panel cointegration test to account for structural breaks.

Kaynakça

  • Altıner, A. ve Bozkurt, E. (2020). "Yükselen Sanayi Ekonomilerinde Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Panel Veri Analizi" Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi (ASEAD), 7(12), 17-31.
  • Altunöz, U. (2014). "Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı", Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Anwar, S. ve Ali, S.Z. (2015). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from South Asia", Applied Economics Letters, 22(17), 1-6, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1034832.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A. (2005). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis and The Purchasing Power Parity: A Review Article", Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(4), 671-696, DOI: 10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00261.x.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A.B.M. (2004). "ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis", Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2004.00247.x.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nouira, R. (2021). "The Nonlinear ARDL Approach and Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from 68 Countries", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 80-89, DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.001
  • Balassa, B. (1964). "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal", Journal of Political Economy, 72(6), 584-596.
  • Baltagi, B.H., Feng, Q. ve Kao, C. (2012). "A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Cross-Sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model", Journal of Econometrics, 170(1), 164-177, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004.
  • Bank of Mexico. (2009). " Exchange Rate Regimes in Mexico Since 1954 ", Bank of Mexico, 1-13.
  • Bordo, M.D., Choudhri, E.U., Fazio, G. ve MacDonald, R. (2017). "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered", Journal of International Money and Finance, 75, 69–92, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.03.011.
  • Cassel, G. (1918). "Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges", The Economic Journal, 28(112), 413-415. DOI: 10.2307/2223329.
  • Chamon, M. ve Garcia, M. (2016). "Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective?", Journal of International Money and Finance, 61, 163-187, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.08.008.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve Leon-Ledesma, M.A. (2011). "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 15(3), 1-31, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1823.
  • Dada, J.T., Olomola, P.A. ve Ajide, F.M. (2020). "Productivity Bias Hypothesis: New Evidence from Parallel Market Exchange Rate", Economics, 8(1), 31-40, DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2020-0003.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431, DOI: 10.2307/2286348
  • Dünya Bankası. (2023). "Veri Tabanı", https://data.worldbank.org/indicator (Erişim Tarihi: 24.03.2023).
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Teal, F. (2010). "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production. Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series", Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Number: 515.
  • Eichler, M., Grass, M., Blöchliger, H. ve Ott, H. (2006). "Determinants of Productivity Growth", BAK Report, 1.
  • Eita, J.H., Khumalo, Z.Z. ve Choga, I. (2021). "Productivity and Real Exchange Rate: Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Misalignment in Five African Countries", Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 68(2), 177-194, DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2021-0011.
  • Ericsson, J. ve Irandoust, M. (2004). "The Productivity-Bias Hypothesis and the PPP Theorem: New Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Models", Japan and the World Economy, 16(2), 121-138, DOI: 10.1016/S0922- 1425(03)00015-X.
  • Garten, J.E. (1997). "The Big Ten: The Big Emerging Markets and How They will Change Our Lives", https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/first/g/garten-ten.html? scp=17&sq=korea%2520greece&st=cse, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.03.2023).
  • Gedikoğlu, B. ve Yolcu Karadam, D. (2021). "OECD Ülkelerinde Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Açıklanmasında Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi", Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 44, 73-90. DOI: 10.30794/pausbed.873742.
  • Ghosh, S., Nath, S. ve Srivastava, S. (2023). "Productivity and Real Exchange Rates for India: Does Balassa-Samuelson Effect Explain?", Indian Growth and Development Review, 16(1), 41-73. https://doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-11-2022-0130.
  • Halıcıoglu, F. ve Ketenci, N. (2018). "Testing the Productivity Bias Hypothesis in Middle East Countries", Journal of Economic Studies, 45(5), 922-931, DOI: 10.1108/JES-04-2017-0104.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2023). "Reprint of: Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels", Journal of Econometrics, 234, 56-69, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.002.
  • Imai, H. (2018). "China’s Rapid Growth ve Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson Effect", Journal of Asian Economics, 54, 39-52, DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.002.
  • Küçükaksoy, İ. ve Çifçi, İ. (2017). "Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye ve Dış Ticaret Ortakları Uygulaması", Dokuz Eylül Universitesi İktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 57-94, DOI: 10.24988/deuiibf.2017321547.
  • López-Marmolejo, A., Ventosa-Santaulària, D. ve Diaz Muro, G.S. (2023). "Inverse Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Mexico: The Role of the Oil Sector", Empirical Economics, 65, 2273-2300, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02427-5.
  • Njindan Iyke, B. ve Odhiambo, N.M. (2017)." An Empirical Test of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Evidence from Eight Middle-Income Countries in Africa", Economic Systems, 41(2), 297-304. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.10.001
  • Officer, L.H. (1976a). "The Productivity Bias in Purchasing Power Parity: An Econometric Investigation", Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund, 23(3), 545–579, DOI: 10.2307/3866641.
  • Officer, L.H. (1976b). "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Exchange Rates: A Review Article", Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund, 23(1), 1–60, DOI: 10.2307/3866665.
  • Olayeni, R.O., Tiwari, A.K. ve Wohar, M.E. (2021). "Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) for Panel Cointegration Test", Applied Economics Letters, 28(6), 482-486, DOI:10.1080/13504851.2020.1761526.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007). "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312, DOI:10.1002/jae.951.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2021). "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panels", Empirical Economics, 60(1), 13-50, DOI:10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7.
  • Samuelson, P.A. (1964). "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46(2), 145-154.
  • Tepekule, U. ve Ergen, E. (2022). "Verimlilik Artışı ve Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki İlişkinin Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi", Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(4), 187-200. DOI: 10.18026/cbayarsos.1099594
  • Vo, H.L. ve Vo, D.H. (2023). "The Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange‐Rate Economics Half a Century on", Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(2), 446-479, DOI: 10.1111/joes.12504.
  • Vural, G. (2020). "Verimlilik Yanlılığı Hipotezinin Gelecek 11 Ülkesi İçin İncelenmesi", Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 20 (40), 165-173.
  • Wang, W., Xue, J. ve Du, C. (2016). "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in the Developed and Developing Countries Revisited, Economics Letters, 146, 33-38, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.07.020.
  • Whitt, A.J.J. (1996). "The Mexican Peso Crisis", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta-Economic Review, 81(1), 1-20.
  • Yolcu Karadam, D. ve Gedikoğlu, B. (2021). "Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Farklı Gelir Grupları Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi", Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 30, 89-106, DOI: 0.18092/ulikidince.771888.
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Alper Karasoy 0000-0001-9447-3375

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Ekim 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Karasoy, A. (2023). Verimlilik Yanlılığı Hipotezinin Doğrulanması: Seçilmiş Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinden Kanıtlar. Verimlilik Dergisi, 57(4), 595-608. https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1309639

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