COVID-19’un Sektörel Üretkenlik Ağlarına Etkisi: Türkiye İncelemesi

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 2017 yılının ilk çeyreği ile 2025 yılının ilk çeyreği arasındaki dönemde Türkiye’de sektörel verimlilik dinamiklerinin nasıl değiştiğini ortaya koymaktır. Özellikle COVID-19 pandemisinin öncesi ve sonrasında sektörler arası ilişkilerde meydana gelen değişiklikler üzerinde durulmaktadır. Yöntem: Analizde, çalışma saatleri endeksi ile sektörler arası üretim endeksi verileri kullanılmıştır. Ağ teorisi yaklaşımı benimsenerek, bir yandan korelasyona dayalı eş zamanlı ilişkiler, diğer yandan Granger nedensellik testlerine dayalı yönlendirilmiş ilişkiler birlikte değerlendirilmiştir. Bütüncül yaklaşım sayesinde, sektörler arasındaki etkileşimlerin yalnızca gücü değil, aynı zamanda yönü ayrıntılı biçimde incelenmiştir. Bulgular: Elde edilen bulgular, pandemi öncesi ve sonrası dönemler arasında sektörel ağ yapısında belirgin farklılıklar bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Korelasyona dayalı ağlar, pandemi sonrasında bağlantı yoğunluğunun genel olarak azaldığına işaret ederken; Granger nedensellik analizleri, sektörel ilişkilerin daha yönlü karmaşık bir yapıya büründüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. İmalat, ulaştırma ve finans sektörlerinin ağ içerisindeki merkezi konumlarının güçlendiği görülürken, bazı sektörlerde bağlantıların zayıfladığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, pandemi sonrasında Türk ekonomisinin verimlilik yapısında önemli bir yapısal değişim yaşandığını düşündürmektedir. Özgünlük: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de sektörel verimlilik ilişkilerini ağ teorisi çerçevesinde ele alarak hem korelasyon temelli hem de Granger nedenselliğe dayalı yaklaşımları bir arada kullanan sınırlı sayıdaki çalışmadan biridir. Pandemi öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerin karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmesi, sektörel dayanıklılık ve yapısal dönüşüm politikalarına yönelik özgün ve bütüncül değerlendirmeler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sektörel Üretkenlik
• Ağ Analizi
• Korelasyon
• Granger Nedensellik
• COVID-19
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

The Impact of COVID-19 on Sectoral Productivity Networks: Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to reveal how sectoral productivity dynamics in Türkiye changed in period between the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2025. Particularly, it focuses on the transformation that occurred in inter-sectoral relations before and after COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: In the analysis, working hours index and inter-sectoral production index data were used. By adopting a network theory approach, both correlation-based simultaneous relationships and directed relationships based on Granger causality tests were evaluated. Thanks to this holistic approach, not only the strength of interactions between sectors but also their direction was examined in detail. Findings: The obtained findings show that there are significant differences in the sectoral network structure between pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. While correlation-based networks indicate connection density generally decreased after the pandemic; Granger causality analyses reveal that sectoral relationships have taken on a more directional complex structure. While it is observed that the central positions of manufacturing, transportation and finance sectors within the network have strengthened, it has been determined that connections weakened in some sectors. These results suggest that an important structural change occurred in the productivity structure of the Turkish economy after the pandemic. Originality: This study is one of the limited number of studies that handle sectoral productivity relationships in Türkiye within the framework of network theory by using both correlation-based and Granger causality-based approaches together. The comparative examination of pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods provides original and holistic evaluations for sectoral resilience and structural transformation policies.

Keywords

• Sectoral Productivity
• Network Analysis
• Correlation
• Granger Causality
• COVID-19
• Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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