İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ: YAĞIŞLARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Öz

Yağış miktarındaki değişimin gelişmemiş veya tarıma bağımlı ülkelerde daha güçlü olduğu ve sanayi ekonomileri için daha az etkili olduğu görülmüştür. Türkiye, büyüyen hizmet ekonomisine sahip yeni sanayileşmiş bir ülke olduğundan, dünya ulusları arasında yükselen bir ekonomi olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Ancak, tarım endüstrisi özellikle istihdam düzeyinde ekonomide önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu makalenin amacı kuraklığın tarım sektörü üzerindeki ekonomik sonuçları ve bunun dolaylı olarak genel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. İncelenen dönem boyunca yağış ve tarımsal sanayi arasında pozitif bir korelasyonun olduğu görülmektedir. Tarım sektöründeki büyüme, genel ekonomik büyüme ile yüksek derecede korelasyona sahip olduğu ve yine ülkedeki yağış trendi ile genel ekonomik büyüme arasında bir ilişkinin olduğu bulunmuştur. Türkiye’de kuraklığın egemen olduğu yıllarda ekonomik krizlerin bu dönemleri izlediği gözlemlenmiştir. Yağışın yanı sıra, bir başka değişken olan sıcaklık verisi de analize konu edilmiştir. Yağışların aksine, sıcaklığın tarımsal üretim üzerinde bir etkisi bulunmamıştır. İstatistikî rakamlar, tarım endüstrisinin tüm ekonominin küçük bir kısmını içermekte olduğunu gösterse de, makalenin sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de yağış miktarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde düşünüldüğünden daha fazla etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık
• Yağış
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Tarım
• İklim Değişikliği

CLIMATIC CHANGE: THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

The variation in rainfall amount is found to be more forceful in poorer or agriculture-dependent countries and seems to be less effective for industrial economies. As Turkey is a newly industrialised country with a growing service economy, it is categorized as an emerging economy in the world. However, agricultural industry still plays a significant role in the economy especially in terms of the level of employment. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of rainfall on economy through economic outcomes of drought on agricultural industry. There seems to be a positive correlation between rainfall and agricultural industry in over the investigated period. As the growth in agricultural industry is highly correlated, similarly rainfall and overall economic growth appear to be coinciding and moving together. When there is drought in the country, economic crises follow this pattern. Besides rainfall, another variable, temperature, is allowed to identify whether it has any effect on the growth. Contrary to rain, temperature has no influence on agricultural output. The descriptive figures note that while agricultural industry involves a small share of the whole economy, the results of the study imply rainfall amount in Turkey has more impacts on economic growth than thought. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Drought
• Rainfall
• Economic Growth
• Agriculture
• Climate Change

Kaynakça

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