DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, VERGİ GELİRLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELER ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1980-2018 yılları arasında vergi gelirleri, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi kırılgan beşli ülke grubu için (Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika, Türkiye) panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizleri ile tespit etmektir. Panel eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını göstermektedir. Panel VECM nedensellik analizi sonuçları ise, uzun dönemde vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu, kısa dönemde ise ekonomik büyümeden vergi gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bunun yanında, panel VECM nedensellik testi sonuçları, uzun dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarından hem vergi gelirlerine hem de ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve vergi gelirlerine ilişkin politikaların uzun dönemde daha etkin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları
• Vergi Gelirleri
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Panel Nedensellik Analizi

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TAX REVENUES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Öz

The aim of the study is to test the relationship between tax revenues, foreign direct investments and economic growth, using panel cointegration and panel causality analyses for fragile five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey) for the period of 1980-2018. Panel cointegration test results show that there is long term relationship between the variables. Panel VECM causality test results also show that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in the long term while there is a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to tax revenues in the short term. Moreover, panel VECM causality analysis results show that there is a one-way causality relationship from foreign direct investments to both economic growth and tax revenues in the long term. These findings reveal that economic policies regarding the economic growth, tax revenues and foreign direct investments for these countries is more effective in the long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Tax Revenues
• Economic Growth
• Panel Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Acar, Y. (2002). İktisadi büyüme ve büyüme modelleri. 1. Baskı, İstanbul: VİPAŞ Yayınları.
2. Afşar, M. (2007). The causality relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in Turkey. Business and Economics Society International, July, 16-20, Antibes, France.
3. Ağayev, S. (2010). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Geçiş ekonomileri örneğinde panel eştümleşme ve panel nedensellik analizleri. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (12)1, 159-184.
4. Aktan, C. C. (1991). Talep-yönlü iktisat ve 1970'li yılların iktisadi sorunları. Banka ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 28 (1-2), 33-47.
5. Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Özcan, S. ve Sayek S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics (64)1, 89-112.
6. Alzaidy, G., Ahmad, M. ve Lacheheb, Z. (2017). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Malaysia: The role of financial development. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, (7)3, 382-388.
7. Anastassiou, T. ve Dritsaki, C. (2005). Tax revenues and economic growth: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, (1)2, 99-104.
8. Anwar, S. ve Nguyen, L. P. (2010). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Vietnam. Asia Pacific Business Review, (16)1-2, 183-202.

9. Arbatli, E. C. (2011). Economic policies and fdi inflows to emerging market economies. (Working Paper No: WP/11/192). New York: International Monetary Fund, Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Economic-Policies-and-FDI-Inflows-to-Emerging-Market-Economies-25160, (11 Ocak 2020).
10. Arnold, J. (2008). Do tax structures affect aggregate economic growth? Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries. (Working Paper No: 64). New York: OECD Economics Department. Erişim adresi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/236001777843, (10 Ocak 2020).
11. Aslam, A. M. (2015). A case study of cointegration relationship between tax revenue and foreign direct ınvestment: Evidence from Sri Lanka. In 2nd International Symposium, FIA, South Eastern University of Sri Lanka, 246-251.
12. Ayouni, S. E., Issaoui, F. ve Brahim, S. (2014). Financial liberalization, foreign direct ınvestment and economic growth: A dynamic panel data validation. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, (4)3, 677-697.
13. Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M. ve Sapsford, D. (1996). Foreign direct investment and growth in EP and IS countries. Economic Journal, (106)434, 92-105.
14. Barro, R. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, (106)2, 407-444.
15. Bayar, Y. ve Öztürk, O. F. (2018). Impact of foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in OECD countries: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Theoretical and Applied Economics, (25)1, 31-40.
16. Blomström, M., Lipsey, R. E. ve Zejan, M. (1992). What explains developing country growth?. (Working Paper No: 4132). UK: Cambridge University National Bureau of Economic Research, Erişim adresi: https://www.nber.org/papers/w4132, (13 Ocak 2020).
17. Boly A., Coulibaly, S. ve Kéré, E. N. (2019). Tax policy, foreign direct investment and spillover effects ?. (Working Paper No: 310). Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire: African Development Bank, Erişim adresi: https://www.afdb.org › Documents › Publications, (06 Ocak 2020).
18. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. ve Lee, J. (1995). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?. (Working Paper No: 5057). UK: Cambridge University National Bureau of Economic Research, Erişim adresi: https://www.nber.org/papers/w5057, (07 Ocak 2020).
19. Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
20. Bunescu, L. ve Comaniciu, C. (2014). Analysis of correlation between tax revenue and other economic indicators in European Union member states. Studies in Business & Economics, (9)1, 24-34.
21. Campos, N. F. ve Kinoshita Y. (2002). Foreign direct investment as technology transferred: Some panel evidence from the Transition Countries. (Working Paper No: 438). Michigan USA: University of Michigan William Davidson Institute.
22. Carkovic, M. V. ve Levine, R. (2002). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth?. (Working Paper No: 314924). Minneapolis USA: University of Minnesota Department of Finance, Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/abstract=314924 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.314924. (15 Ekim2019).
23. Chaudhry, I. S. ve Munir, F. (2010). Determinants of law tax revenue in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 30(2), 439-452.
24. Çelikay, F. (2018). Vergi yükünün ekonomik büyüme hızı üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye’deki iller örnekleminde ampirik bir analiz (2005-2014). İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(5), 37-55.
25. De Mello, Jr. ve Luiz, R. (1997). Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey. The Journal of Development Studies, (34)1, 1-34.
26. Değer, K. M. ve Emsen, S. Ö. (2006). Geçiş ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri: Panel veri analizleri (1990–2002). C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, (7)2, 121–137.
27. Durkaya, M. ve Ceylan, S. (2006). Vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme. Maliye Dergisi, 150, 79-89.
28. Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., Bulut, Ş. ve Dam, M. M. (2010). Ekonomik büyüme ile vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişki: Sınır testi yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 28, 97-110.
29. Gropp, R. ve Kostial, K. (2000). The disappearing tax base: Is foreign direct investment eroding corporate income taxes?. (Working Paper No: 31). Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
30. Gupta, A. S. (2007). Determinants of tax revenue efforts in developing countries. (Working Paper No: 07-184). New York USA: International Monetary Fund IMF, Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Determinants-of-Tax- Revenue-Efforts- in-Developing-Countries-21040, (02 Mart 2020).
31. Gülenay Chadwick, M. (2018). Dependence of “fragile five” and “troubled ten” emerging markets’ financial system to us monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty. (Working Paper No: 18/17). Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, Erişim adresi: https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/.-2./wp1817.pdf?, (06 Ocak 2020).
32. Hansen, H. ve Rand, J. (2004). On the causal links between fdi and growth in developing countries. (Discussions Paper No: 04-30). Copenhagen Denmark: Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen and Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
33. IMF. (2020). Government finance statistics, New York: International Monetary Fund, Erişim adresi: http://data.imf.org/?sk=77413F1D-1525-450A-A23A-47AEED40FE78, (03 Ocak 2020).
34. Kamacı, A. (2019). Yeni kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde gelir eşitsizliğinin ekonomik büyümeye etkileri. Fiscaoeconomia, 3(3), 58-71.
35. Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F. ve Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal policy and growth: Evidence from Oecd countries. Journal of Public Economies, 74, 171-190.
36. Lee, Y. ve Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89, 1027-1043.
37. Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economic, 22, 3-42.
38. Mahmood, H. ve Chaudhary, A. R. (2013). Impact of fdi on tax revenue in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, (7)1, 59-69.
39. Merlevede B. ve Schoors, K. (2004). Reform, fdi and economic growth: Tale of the tortoise and the hare. (Working Paper No: 730). Michigan USA: University of Michigan William Davidson Institute.
40. Mucuk, M. ve Alptekin, V. (2008). Türkiye’de vergi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Var analizi (1975-2006). Maliye Dergisi, 155, 159-174.
41. Nair‐Reichert, U. ve Weinhold, D. (2001). Causality tests for cross‐country panels: A new look at fdi and economic growth in developing countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (63)2, 153-171.
42. Odabaş, H. (2015). Foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in the Transition Economies of European Union. Global Journal on Humanities and Social Sciences, (2)2, 17-22.
43. OECD. (2008). Tax effects on foreign direct investment. New York: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Erişim adresi: https://www.oecd.org/investment/investment-policy/40152903.pdf, (06 Ocak 2020).
44. OECD. (2019). Foreign direct ınvestment (fdi), New York: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Erişim adresi: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/foreign-direct-investment-fdi/indicator-group/english_9a523b18-en, (06 Ocak 2020).
45. Okey, M. K. N. (2013). Tax revenue effect of foreign direct investment in West Africa. African Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, (2)1, 1-22.
46. Özsağır, A. (2008). Dünden bugüne büyümenin dinamiği. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1, 332-347.
47. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. (Working Paper No: 0435). UK: Cambridge University.
48. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2(2), 265-312.
49. Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
50. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
51. Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, (99)3, 500-521.
52. Samuelson, P. A. ve Nordhaus, W. D. (2010). Macroeconomics, Nineteenth Edition, New York USA: Mc Graw-Hill.
53. Sağdıç, E. N. (2019), Vergi gelirlerini belirleyen faktörlerin bölgesel analizi: Türkiye örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 60, 155-178.
54. Sarısoy, İ. ve Koç, S. (2010). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının kurumlar vergisi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisinin ekonometrik analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, Ağustos-Aralık, 133-153.
55. Satrovic, E. (2019). New evidence on the link between fdi and economic growth. Çağlar Ü., Şimşek, H. ve Şiriner, İ. (Ed.). Current Debates in Economic Growth & Public Finance & Game Theory Studies içinde 55-65, London.
56. Savaş, V. (2000). Politik iktisat, 4. Baskı, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın.
57. Simdi, H. ve Seker, A. (2017). Analysis of fragility levels of fragile five in terms of exchange rates. Press Academia Procedia, (3)1, 241-245.
58. Stoilova D. (2017). Tax structure and economic growth: Evidence from the European Union. Contaduría y Administración, 62, 1041-1057.
59. Sun, X. (2002). Foreign direct investment and economic development what do the states need to do?. (Working Paper No: 1). Marrakech, Morocco: FIAS (Foreign Investment Advisory Service), Erişim adresi: https://docs.igihe.com/IMG/pdf/unpan006348.pdf, (21 Ocak 2020).
60. Şaşmaz, M. Ü. ve Yayla, Y. E. (2018). Impact of foreign direct investment on economic development: OECD countries example. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 11(1), 359-374.
61. Tabasam, F. (2014). Impact of foreign capital inflows on tax collection: A case study of Pakistan. Journal of Global and Social Science Issues, (2)2, 51-60.
62. Tang, L. (2012). The direction of cultural distance on fdi: Attractiveness or incongruity?. Cross Cultural Management, 19(2), 233-256.
63. Temiz, D. (2008). Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: 1960-2006 dönemi. 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, 20-22 Şubat 2008, İzmir, 1-18.
64. The WB. (2020). Data, Erişim adresi: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, (03.01.2020).
65. Tiwari, A. ve Mutascu, M. (2011). Economic growth and fdi in ASIA: A panel data approach. (MPRA Paper No: 28172), Münich, Germany: Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28172/, (11 Ocak 2020).
66. Tocar, S. (2018). Determinants of foreign direct investment: A review, Review of Economics & Business Studies, 11(1), 165-196.
67. Tutgun, S. (2019). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların Türkiye’deki vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (17)4, 36-49.
68. UNCTAD. (1999). Foreign direct investment and the challenge of development, World Investment Report 1999, New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Erişim adresi: https://unctad.org›Docs› wir1999_en, (06 Ocak 2020).
69. UNCTAD. (2019). World investment report: Annex tables, fdi inflows, by region and economy 1990-2018, New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Erişim adresi: https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/Annex-Tables.aspx, (03 Ocak 2020).
70. UNCTAD. (2020). FDI statistic, New York: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Erişim adresi: https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/FDI%20Statistics/FDI-Statistics.aspx, (03 Ocak 2020).
71. Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-223.
72. Widmalm, F. (2001). Tax structure and growth: Are some taxes better than others?. Public Choice, 107, 199-219.
73. Yıldız, F. ve Sandalcı, U. (2019). Vergi yapısı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye’de iller düzeyinde ampirik bir analiz (2004-2014). Vergi Dünyası Dergisi, 452, 20-34.
74. Zenasni, S. ve Benhabib, A. (2013). The determinants of foreign direct investment and their ımpact on growth: Panel data analysis for AMU countries. International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, (2)3, 300-313.