The Effect of Geopolitical Risk Index on Military Expenditures

Öz

The aim of the study is to examine the effect of geopolitical risk index (GPR) on the military expenditures. Panel analysis method is applied by using the data of 1993-2018 period for 17 developing countries where GPR is calculated. The military expenditures are considered as the dependent variable and GPR index as an independent variable. As control variables, exports, imports and GDP per capita are taken. After determining the existence of long-term relationships between variables with Westerlund (2007) cointegration test, long-term coefficients are estimated with the panel AMG estimator. Following the estimation results, it is observed that GPR and GDP per capita have a positive effect on military expenditures. In addition, it is determined that exports affect military expenditures negatively, while imports are not found to have a statistically significant effect on military expenditures. For the short-term analysis, the causality test developed by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) is applied and a two-way causality relationship between military expenditures and the geopolitical risk index and per capita GDP is determined. However, no causal relationship is found between exports, imports and military expenditures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geopolitical Risk Index
• Military Expenditures
• Panel Data Analysis

Jeopolitik Risk Endeksinin Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Çalışmada jeopolitik risk endeksinin (GPR), askeri harcamalar üzerine etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. GPR’nin hesaplandığı 17 gelişmekte olan ülkeye ait 1993-2018 dönemi verilerinden yararlanılarak panel analiz yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Askeri harcamalar bağımlı değişken, GPR endeksi ise bağımsız değişken olarak ele alınmıştır. Kontrol değişkenler olarak da ihracat, ithalat ve kişi başı GSYH’ye yer verilmiştir. Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme testiyle değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı saptandıktan sonra panel AMG tahmincisiyle uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarında jeopolitik risk endeksindeki ve kişi başı gelirdeki artışların ülkelerin askeri harcamalarını arttırdığı görülmüştür. Ayrıca ihracattaki artışların da askeri harcamalarda azalışa neden olduğu tespit edilmiştir. İthalatın ise askeri harcamalar üzerinde istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Kısa dönem analizi için Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve askeri harcamalar ile jeopolitik risk endeksi ve kişi başına GSYH arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ancak ihracat ve ithalat ile askeri harcamalar arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılmamıştır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi
• Askeri Harcamalar
• Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

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