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Trump Dönemi Ticaret Savaşlarında Türk Demir Çelik Sektörü İhracatının Politik Ekonomisi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 85 - 119, 08.01.2023

Öz

ABD'nin dış ticaret politikasında yapılan değişiklikler, geniş bir alanda birçok ülkeyi etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle, ABD, dünyadaki en önemli ithalatçı ülke olarak, dış ticaret politikasında korumacı önlemlere başvurduğunda, ABD'ye ihracat yapan birçok ülkenin dış ticaretinde de değişiklikler olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada ABD’nin başlattığı ticaret savaşları ve özellikle son ABD başkanlarından Trump'ın 2018 yılında başlattığı ticaret savaşının Türkiye demir, çelik ve alüminyum sektörleri üzerindeki etkisi değerlendirilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, tarihi vaka analizi ve istatistiki veri analizi yöntemi uygulanmıştır. ABD'nin dış ticaret geçmişinde almış olduğu korumacı önlemler, bu kapsamda analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda, Trump döneminde, siyasi gerekçelerle Türkiye'nin ABD'ye ihraç ettiği demir çelik ürünlerinden alınan gümrük vergisi iki kez artırılmış, Türkiye'nin yaptığı misillemeler sonucunda ikinci gümrük vergisi artışı geri alınmıştır. Bu şartlar altında, Türkiye'nin ABD'ye ihraç ettiği demir çelik ürünlerine aynı yılda yapılan iki gümrük vergisi artışı, Türkiye'nin ihracatını kısa vadede düşürmüştür. Ancak, sonraki yıllarda, Türkiye’nin demir, çelik alüminyum ihracatında kayıpların göreceli olarak telafi edildiği tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Allen, W. R. (1953). The international trade philosophy of cordell hull, 1907- 1933. The American Economic Review.43(1). 101–116.
  • Ashbee, E. and Waddan, A. (2010). The Obama Administration and United States Trade Policy. The Political Quarterly. 81(2). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pd f/10.1111/j.1467-923X.2010.02088.x?casa_token=sW9lmHG2pnMAAAAA: CG9uM4Na7B3JsTvaBMY2ciGb3v5Beuy6q60nwyHRXsGB7qErBUcjQDKx8fePvB2M6BKh7mwVl2AG1Mw
  • Balassa, B. (1965). Tariff protection in industrial countries: an evaluation. Journal of Political Economy 73(6), 573–594.
  • Baldwin, R. (2008). The case against infant-industry tariff protection. Journal of Political Economy 77, 3 (1969), 295–305.
  • Baldwin, R. E. (2008). The changing nature of US trade policy since world war i1. In The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy. University of Chicago Press. 5–32.
  • Baldwin, R. E. (2009). US trade policy since 1934: an uneven path toward greater trade liberalization. Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Baldwin, R. E., Krueger (1984), A. O., et al. The structure and evolution of recent US trade policy. University of Chicago Press Chicago, Il.
  • Bairoch, R. (1995) Economics and world history: myths and paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. Beghin, J. C.; Maertens, M. and Swinnen, J. (2015). Non-tariff measures and standards in trade and global value chains LICOS Discussion Paper, No. 363
  • Bown, C. P. and Kolb, M. (2022). Trump’s Trade War Timeline: An Up to Date Guide. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://policycommons.net/artifacts/2473612/trumps-trade-war-timeline/3495669/
  • Bown, C. P., Euijin, J. and Zhang, E. (2018). Trump’s steel tariffs have hit smaller and poorer countries the hardest. Trade and Investment Policy Watch, Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.wita.org/atp-research /trumps-steel-tariffs- have-hit-smaller-and-poorer-countries-the-hardes/
  • Buehn, A. and Stefan, E. (2011). Trade Misinvoicing: The dark side of world trade. The World Economy. 34(8), 1263- 1287.
  • Breuninger, K. and Wilkie, C. (2019). Trump’s hard-line views on Trade were formed long before he targeted China With Tariffs. Politics. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/trumps-hard-line-trade-views-wereformed-long-before-China-tariffs.
  • Çavuşgil, S.T. (2009) International business: Strategy, management, and the new realities. Pearson Education India.
  • Çeştepe, H. ve Tunçel, A. (2018). Türkiye Demir Çelik Sektörünün Uluslararası Rekabet Gücü Analizi. International Turkish Studies International Congress on Social Sciences 13 (15), 113-129.https://www.acarindex.com/pdfler/acarindex -304a69e4-954b.pdf
  • Cohen, S., Raul, J. and Blecker (1996). Fundamentals of U.S. Foreign Trade Policy. Newyork.https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324 /9780429037269/fundamentals-foreign-trade-policy-stephen-cohen-joel-paul-robert-blecker
  • Conybeare, J. (1985). Trade Wars: A Comparative Study Of Anglo-Hanse, Franco- Italian, And Hawley-Smoot Conflicts. World Politics 38, (1),147–172.
  • Deardorff, A. V. (1989). Trade Policy of The Reagan Period. Research Seminar in International Economics. Seminar Discussion Paper. No.239.
  • Destler, I. M. (1991). U.S. Trade Policy Making in the Eighties. Politics and Economics in the Eighties. Ed.by Alberto Alesina and Geoffrey Carliner. http://www.nber.org/books/ales91-1
  • Dixit, A. (1984). International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries. Economic Journal.94, 1-16.
  • Dixit, A. (1987). International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries, International Trade, ed. Bhagwati, Jagdish. Cambridge. 183-192
  • Dünya Ticaret Örgütü (2022). World Trade Organization. Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation Prepared by staff of IMF, OECD, World Bank, and WTO https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news22_e/igo_22apr22_e.pdf
  • Dünya Ticaret Örgütü (2022). Dış Ticaret Politika Araçları.
  • Eaton, J. and Grossman, G.M. (1986). Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly. Quarterly Journal of Economics.101, 383-406.
  • Feenstra, R.C. (1984) Voluntary Export Restraint in US autos, 1980-1981: Quality, employment, and welfare effects. The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy., 35.
  • Fleming, D. (1936). How the smoot-hawley tariff was made. Proceedings of the Annual Session (Southern Political Science Association), 9, 14–19.
  • Galbraith, J. (2018). Us tariffs on steel and aluminum imports go into effect, leading to trade disputes. The American Journal of International Law. 112 (3), 499–504.
  • Gerber, J. (2017). International Economics. Pearson.
  • Grossman, Gene, M. and Elhanan Helpman (1995). Trade Wars and Trade Talks. Journal of Political Economy 103(4), 675-708.
  • Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. R. (1989). Trade Policy and Market Structure. The MIT Press, Cambridge.
  • Ho, K. K. (2003). Trading Rights and Wrongs: The 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs. Berkeley Journal of International Law. 21, 825.
  • Hung, H. (2021). The periphery in the making of globalization: the China Lobby and the Reversal of Clinton’s China Trade Policy, 1993–1994, Review of International Political Economy, 28:4, 1004-1027.
  • Krueger, A. O. (1987). Protectionism and non-tariff barriers in world trade. Harvard International Review,19–23.
  • Krugman, P. R, Obstfeld, M. and Melitz, M. (2022). International Economics. Pearson.
  • Krugman, P. R. (1994) Introduction to” empirical studies of strategic trade policy. In Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy. University of Chicago Press, 1–10.
  • Irwin, D. A. (1995). The GATT In Historical Perspective. The American Economic Review 85(2), 323–328.
  • Liang, G. and Ding, H. (2020). The China-US Trade War Edition 1st Edition. Pub. London. Routledge.
  • Lovely, M. (2021). U.S.-China The New Cold War. https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/us-china-the-new-cold-war.
  • Lovely, M. E and Yang, L. (2018). Revised tariffs against China hit non-Chinese supply Chains even harder. PIE Charts, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Murphy, S. D. (2002). Imposition of US Tariffs on Steel Imports. American Journal of International Law .96 (4) 977–978.
  • Nicita, A. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of United States tariffs in China. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD Research Paper. 37, 1-17. UNCTAD/SER.RP/2019/9.
  • Ohlin, B. (1935). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Owoye, O. and. Onafowora, O.A. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Tariff Restricted Trade Wars Between the United States and China Under the Recent Past Four Presidents: Did they Achieve Their Objectives Journal of Economics Management and Trade. 9-21 10.9734/jemt/2021/v27i930364
  • Ozay, M. (2013). Thoughts Upon The Policies of The Ottoman State In the 16 Century Indian Ocean. World Journal of Islamic History and Civilization, 3(3), 9-20.
  • Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London
  • Türkiye Çelik İhracatçıları Birliği (2022). Türkiye Çelik Üretim ve İhracat İstatistikleri.
  • Scott, R. (2014). The Obama Administration Moves to Protect U.S. Steel Industry from Unfair Trade Practices, Economic Policy Institute. https://policycommons. net/artifacts/1410719/the-obama-administration-moves-to-protect-us/2024983/
  • Schott, J., J. and Zhiyao, L. (2018). Korea Steel Deal Means More US Steel Barriers Lie Ahead” Trade and Investment Policy Watch. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Sheppard, H. E. (2002). The NAFTA Trucking Dispute: Pretexts for Noncompliance and Policy Justifications for U.S. Facilitation of CrossBorder Services Minnesota Journal of International Law. 53. https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/mjil/53
  • Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: W. Strahan and T. Cadell.
  • Stolper, W.F. and Samuelson, P. A. (1941). Protection and Real Wages. Review of Economic Studies. IX, 58-73.
  • Soukup, B. J. (2010). Obama’s First Trade War: The US Mexico Cross Border Trucking Dispute and the Implication of Strategic Cross Sector Retaliation on US Compliance Under NAFTA. University of Richmond Law Student Publications.
  • Vernon, J. (1982). International Investment And International Trade In The Product Cycle. In International Economics Policies and their Theoretical Foundations. Elsevier, 1982, pp. 307–324.
  • World Steel Association (2022). World Steel Production and Export Statistics.

The Political Economy of Turkish Iron and Steel Industry Exports under the Trade Wars Policies of Trump Period

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 85 - 119, 08.01.2023

Öz

The changes made in the foreign trade policy of the US affect many countries in a wide area. Therefore, when the USA, as the most important importing country in the world, resorts to protective measures in its foreign trade policy, there are changes in the foreign trade of many countries exporting to the USA. This study aims to analyze the effects of the trade wars started by the USA, and especially the Turkish iron, steel and aluminum sectors of the last US president Trump's trade war started in 2018 were evaluated. In this study, historical case analysis and statistical data analysis methods were applied. The protectionist measures taken by the USA in its foreign trade history are analyzed in this context. During the Trump era, the customs duty on iron and steel products exported by Turkey to the USA was increased twice due to political reasons. With Turkey's retaliation, the second customs duty increase was withdrawn. Two customs tariff increases in the same year on iron and steel products exported by Turkey to the USA reduced Turkey's exports in the short term, however, Turkey relatively compensated for its losses in the following years.

Kaynakça

  • Allen, W. R. (1953). The international trade philosophy of cordell hull, 1907- 1933. The American Economic Review.43(1). 101–116.
  • Ashbee, E. and Waddan, A. (2010). The Obama Administration and United States Trade Policy. The Political Quarterly. 81(2). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pd f/10.1111/j.1467-923X.2010.02088.x?casa_token=sW9lmHG2pnMAAAAA: CG9uM4Na7B3JsTvaBMY2ciGb3v5Beuy6q60nwyHRXsGB7qErBUcjQDKx8fePvB2M6BKh7mwVl2AG1Mw
  • Balassa, B. (1965). Tariff protection in industrial countries: an evaluation. Journal of Political Economy 73(6), 573–594.
  • Baldwin, R. (2008). The case against infant-industry tariff protection. Journal of Political Economy 77, 3 (1969), 295–305.
  • Baldwin, R. E. (2008). The changing nature of US trade policy since world war i1. In The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy. University of Chicago Press. 5–32.
  • Baldwin, R. E. (2009). US trade policy since 1934: an uneven path toward greater trade liberalization. Tech. rep., National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Baldwin, R. E., Krueger (1984), A. O., et al. The structure and evolution of recent US trade policy. University of Chicago Press Chicago, Il.
  • Bairoch, R. (1995) Economics and world history: myths and paradoxes. University of Chicago Press. Beghin, J. C.; Maertens, M. and Swinnen, J. (2015). Non-tariff measures and standards in trade and global value chains LICOS Discussion Paper, No. 363
  • Bown, C. P. and Kolb, M. (2022). Trump’s Trade War Timeline: An Up to Date Guide. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://policycommons.net/artifacts/2473612/trumps-trade-war-timeline/3495669/
  • Bown, C. P., Euijin, J. and Zhang, E. (2018). Trump’s steel tariffs have hit smaller and poorer countries the hardest. Trade and Investment Policy Watch, Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.wita.org/atp-research /trumps-steel-tariffs- have-hit-smaller-and-poorer-countries-the-hardes/
  • Buehn, A. and Stefan, E. (2011). Trade Misinvoicing: The dark side of world trade. The World Economy. 34(8), 1263- 1287.
  • Breuninger, K. and Wilkie, C. (2019). Trump’s hard-line views on Trade were formed long before he targeted China With Tariffs. Politics. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/10/trumps-hard-line-trade-views-wereformed-long-before-China-tariffs.
  • Çavuşgil, S.T. (2009) International business: Strategy, management, and the new realities. Pearson Education India.
  • Çeştepe, H. ve Tunçel, A. (2018). Türkiye Demir Çelik Sektörünün Uluslararası Rekabet Gücü Analizi. International Turkish Studies International Congress on Social Sciences 13 (15), 113-129.https://www.acarindex.com/pdfler/acarindex -304a69e4-954b.pdf
  • Cohen, S., Raul, J. and Blecker (1996). Fundamentals of U.S. Foreign Trade Policy. Newyork.https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324 /9780429037269/fundamentals-foreign-trade-policy-stephen-cohen-joel-paul-robert-blecker
  • Conybeare, J. (1985). Trade Wars: A Comparative Study Of Anglo-Hanse, Franco- Italian, And Hawley-Smoot Conflicts. World Politics 38, (1),147–172.
  • Deardorff, A. V. (1989). Trade Policy of The Reagan Period. Research Seminar in International Economics. Seminar Discussion Paper. No.239.
  • Destler, I. M. (1991). U.S. Trade Policy Making in the Eighties. Politics and Economics in the Eighties. Ed.by Alberto Alesina and Geoffrey Carliner. http://www.nber.org/books/ales91-1
  • Dixit, A. (1984). International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries. Economic Journal.94, 1-16.
  • Dixit, A. (1987). International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries, International Trade, ed. Bhagwati, Jagdish. Cambridge. 183-192
  • Dünya Ticaret Örgütü (2022). World Trade Organization. Subsidies, Trade, and International Cooperation Prepared by staff of IMF, OECD, World Bank, and WTO https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news22_e/igo_22apr22_e.pdf
  • Dünya Ticaret Örgütü (2022). Dış Ticaret Politika Araçları.
  • Eaton, J. and Grossman, G.M. (1986). Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly. Quarterly Journal of Economics.101, 383-406.
  • Feenstra, R.C. (1984) Voluntary Export Restraint in US autos, 1980-1981: Quality, employment, and welfare effects. The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy., 35.
  • Fleming, D. (1936). How the smoot-hawley tariff was made. Proceedings of the Annual Session (Southern Political Science Association), 9, 14–19.
  • Galbraith, J. (2018). Us tariffs on steel and aluminum imports go into effect, leading to trade disputes. The American Journal of International Law. 112 (3), 499–504.
  • Gerber, J. (2017). International Economics. Pearson.
  • Grossman, Gene, M. and Elhanan Helpman (1995). Trade Wars and Trade Talks. Journal of Political Economy 103(4), 675-708.
  • Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. R. (1989). Trade Policy and Market Structure. The MIT Press, Cambridge.
  • Ho, K. K. (2003). Trading Rights and Wrongs: The 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs. Berkeley Journal of International Law. 21, 825.
  • Hung, H. (2021). The periphery in the making of globalization: the China Lobby and the Reversal of Clinton’s China Trade Policy, 1993–1994, Review of International Political Economy, 28:4, 1004-1027.
  • Krueger, A. O. (1987). Protectionism and non-tariff barriers in world trade. Harvard International Review,19–23.
  • Krugman, P. R, Obstfeld, M. and Melitz, M. (2022). International Economics. Pearson.
  • Krugman, P. R. (1994) Introduction to” empirical studies of strategic trade policy. In Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy. University of Chicago Press, 1–10.
  • Irwin, D. A. (1995). The GATT In Historical Perspective. The American Economic Review 85(2), 323–328.
  • Liang, G. and Ding, H. (2020). The China-US Trade War Edition 1st Edition. Pub. London. Routledge.
  • Lovely, M. (2021). U.S.-China The New Cold War. https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/us-china-the-new-cold-war.
  • Lovely, M. E and Yang, L. (2018). Revised tariffs against China hit non-Chinese supply Chains even harder. PIE Charts, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Murphy, S. D. (2002). Imposition of US Tariffs on Steel Imports. American Journal of International Law .96 (4) 977–978.
  • Nicita, A. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of United States tariffs in China. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD Research Paper. 37, 1-17. UNCTAD/SER.RP/2019/9.
  • Ohlin, B. (1935). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
  • Owoye, O. and. Onafowora, O.A. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Tariff Restricted Trade Wars Between the United States and China Under the Recent Past Four Presidents: Did they Achieve Their Objectives Journal of Economics Management and Trade. 9-21 10.9734/jemt/2021/v27i930364
  • Ozay, M. (2013). Thoughts Upon The Policies of The Ottoman State In the 16 Century Indian Ocean. World Journal of Islamic History and Civilization, 3(3), 9-20.
  • Ricardo, D. (1817). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London
  • Türkiye Çelik İhracatçıları Birliği (2022). Türkiye Çelik Üretim ve İhracat İstatistikleri.
  • Scott, R. (2014). The Obama Administration Moves to Protect U.S. Steel Industry from Unfair Trade Practices, Economic Policy Institute. https://policycommons. net/artifacts/1410719/the-obama-administration-moves-to-protect-us/2024983/
  • Schott, J., J. and Zhiyao, L. (2018). Korea Steel Deal Means More US Steel Barriers Lie Ahead” Trade and Investment Policy Watch. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Sheppard, H. E. (2002). The NAFTA Trucking Dispute: Pretexts for Noncompliance and Policy Justifications for U.S. Facilitation of CrossBorder Services Minnesota Journal of International Law. 53. https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/mjil/53
  • Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: W. Strahan and T. Cadell.
  • Stolper, W.F. and Samuelson, P. A. (1941). Protection and Real Wages. Review of Economic Studies. IX, 58-73.
  • Soukup, B. J. (2010). Obama’s First Trade War: The US Mexico Cross Border Trucking Dispute and the Implication of Strategic Cross Sector Retaliation on US Compliance Under NAFTA. University of Richmond Law Student Publications.
  • Vernon, J. (1982). International Investment And International Trade In The Product Cycle. In International Economics Policies and their Theoretical Foundations. Elsevier, 1982, pp. 307–324.
  • World Steel Association (2022). World Steel Production and Export Statistics.
Toplam 53 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Zelha Altınkaya 0000-0002-6964-7182

Metin Altın 0000-0002-0178-6581

Yayımlanma Tarihi 8 Ocak 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Altınkaya, Z., & Altın, M. (2023). Trump Dönemi Ticaret Savaşlarında Türk Demir Çelik Sektörü İhracatının Politik Ekonomisi. Barış Araştırmaları Ve Çatışma Çözümleri Dergisi, 11(1), 85-119.