TÜRKİYE’DE SEÇİM COĞRAFYASI: 24 HAZİRAN 2018 SEÇİMLERİ ÜZERİNE İLÇE TEMELLİ BİR ANALİZ

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 46, 73 - 112, 27.03.2023

Ömer Faruk Gençkaya Erman Bakırcı

Öz

Türkiye’de seçim coğrafyası ile ilgili çalışmalar son yıllarda hız kazanmakla birlikte bu alanda yapılan çalışmalar oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu makale, 24 Haziran 2018 Milletvekili Genel Seçimleri sonuçlarının ilçe temelli olarak kümeleme analiziyle ilçe düzeyinde oy verme örüntüsünün coğrafi dağılımını açıklamayı amaçlamaktadır. Makale, k-ortalamalar tekniği ile yapılan kümelemeler sonucunda ilçe temelli güçlü bir oy verme örüntüsünün olduğunu, bu örüntünün daha önce yapılan il temelli çalışmalara oldukça benzediğini göstermektedir. Farklı dönemi kapsayan, il temelli sonuçları analiz eden ya da farklı bir kümeleme yöntemi kullanan birçok çalışmanın ifade ettiği gibi üçlü (K-3) bir kümelemenin Türkiye’de güçlü bir seçim coğrafyasına işaret ettiği bu çalışmada ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın özgünlüğü, il temelli seçim coğrafyası çalışmalarda yer almayan ildeki örüntüsünden farklılaşan ilçelerin gösterilmesidir. Ayrıca, bu çalışma, ilçe temelli seçim coğrafyasında altılı (K-6) kümelemenin de oldukça anlamlı sonuçlar ortaya koyduğunu öne sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçim, seçim coğrafyası, seçmen davranışı, kümeleme analizi

Destekleyen Kurum

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Proje Numarası

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Teşekkür

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ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY IN TURKEY: A DISTRICT-BASED ANALYSIS ON JUNE 24, 2018 ELECTIONS

Öz

Although studies on electoral geography in Turkey have gained momentum in recent years, studies in this area are limited. This paper aims to explain the geographical distribution of the district-level voting with a district-based cluster analysis of the 24 June 2018 General Election results. This paper presents a significant district-based voting pattern by using the k-means clustering. This voting pattern is quite similar to the province-based studies carried out before. As stated by many studies covering different periods, analyzing province-based results, or using another clustering method, this study reveals that a triple (K-3) clustering points to significant electoral geography in Turkey. The originality of this study is to show the districts that differ from the provincial pattern, which the provincial-based electoral geography studies do not include. In addition, this study argues that the six (K-6) clustering in district-based electoral geography also reveals very significant results.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elections, electoral geography, voting behavior, cluster analysis.

Proje Numarası

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Kaynakça

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