EXTREME WEATHER AND DEMAND: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TURKISH MARKET FOR AIR CONDITIONERS

Öz

Extreme weather can impact both businesses and consumers in significant ways. Firms can be affected through changes and disruptions in production and operations but can also be affected through the demand response as consumers’ demand for various goods and services changes due to extreme weather. We investigate the interdependence between the extreme temperatures and the AC demand. Demand for ACs in Turkey is growing in the last decades due to both demographic factors and an episode of rapid increase in the GDP per capita. However, the pace of the growth is not uniform and varies due to the existence of different climatic and socioeconomic conditions across different regions of Turkey. To reckon with time and cross-sectional variation as well as the city level climatic and socioeconomic differences, we estimate a dynamic fixed effect (DFE) model and use cointegration framework to identify short and long run effects of the extreme weather on the AC demand. We find strong evidence of a long run equilibrium effect where the consumer demand for ACs increases significantly due to extreme hot weather.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL)
• Demand
• Dynamic Panel Estimation
• Extreme Weather

AŞIRI HAVA KOŞULLARI VE TALEP: TÜRKİYE KLİMA PAZARI ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Aşırı hava koşulları hem işletmeleri hem de tüketicileri önemli şekillerde etkileyebilir. Firmalar, üretim ve operasyonlardaki değişiklik ve kesintilerden etkilenebileceği gibi, tüketicilerin çeşitli mal ve hizmetlere olan talebinin aşırı hava koşulları nedeniyle değişmesi nedeniyle talep tepkisinden de etkilenebilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye klima pazarı için aşırı sıcaklıklar ile klima talebi arasındaki karşılıklı bağımlılığın varlığı araştırılmaktadır. Türkiye'de klimalara olan talep hem demografik faktörler hem de kişi başına düşen GSYİH' deki hızlı artış nedeniyle son yıllarda artmaktadır. Ancak, büyümenin hızı tekdüze olmayıp, Türkiye'nin farklı bölgelerindeki farklı iklim ve sosyoekonomik koşulların varlığı nedeniyle büyük farklılıklar göstermektedir. Şehir düzeyindeki iklimsel ve sosyoekonomik farklılıkların yanı sıra zaman ve kesitsel farklılıkları da hesaba katmak için, dinamik bir sabit etki (DFE) modeli tahmin edilmiş ve aşırı hava koşullarının klima talebi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkilerini belirlemek için eş bütünleşme çerçevesi kullanılmıştır. Aşırı sıcak hava nedeniyle tüketici talebinin önemli ölçüde arttığı uzun vadeli denge etkisine dair güçlü kanıtlar bulunmuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARDL Modeli
• Aşırı Hava Koşulları
• Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi
• Talep

Kaynakça

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