THE ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINING THE AIR CARGO DEMAND OF TÜRKİYE WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF LIBERAL AVIATION POLICIES

Öz

In order for airlines and associated stakeholders operating in the field of air cargo transport to realise their operational planning, make strategic investment decisions, and gain competitive advantage on a global scale, it is necessary to determine the factors affecting air cargo demand in Türkiye. In this study analyses the effect of the level of liberalisation of bilateral air service agreements and other variables identified in the literature on the amount of outbound and inbound air cargo between Türkiye and 15 selected countries for the period 2013-2022. The results of the empirical analysis show that the level of liberalisation of bilateral agreements, Türkiye's import volume, and the distance between countries positively affect both inbound and outbound air cargo volumes, while increases in jet fuel prices have a negative impact on demand.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Air Cargo Demand
• Liberalisation
• Bilateral Air Service Agreements
• Air Liberalisation Index
• Transport Policy

THE ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINING THE AIR CARGO DEMAND OF TÜRKİYE WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF LIBERAL AVIATION POLICIES

Öz

Havayolu şirketleri ve hava kargo taşımacılığı alanında faaliyet gösteren paydaşların operasyonel planlamalarını gerçekleştirebilmeleri, stratejik yatırım kararları alabilmeleri ve küresel ölçekte rekabet avantajı elde edebilmeleri için Türkiye'deki hava kargo talebini etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2013-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye ile seçilmiş 15 ülke arasındaki giden ve gelen hava kargo miktarına, ikili hava hizmet anlaşmalarının liberalleşme düzeyi ve literatürde belirlenen diğer değişkenlerin etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonuçları, ikili anlaşmaların liberalleşme düzeyinin, Türkiye'nin ithalat hacminin ve ülkeler arasındaki mesafenin hem gelen hem de giden hava kargo hacimlerini olumlu etkilediğini, jet yakıtı fiyatlarındaki artışların ise talep üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hava kargo talebi
• Liberalleşme
• İkili hava hizmeti anlaşmaları
• Hava liberalleşme indeksi
• Ulaştırma politikası

Kaynakça

1. Abeyratne, R. (2018) "Law and Regulation Of Air Cargo", In Law and Regulation of Air Cargo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92489-2
2. Adenigbo, A. J., Mageto, J. and Luke, R. (2022) "Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Cargo Flows in Ghana", Latin American Journal of Trade Policy, 5(12): 7–36. https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-9368.2022.67061
3. Akinyemi, Y. C. (2023) "Air Cargo Demand in Africa: Application of Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling Techniques", Journal of Air Transport Management, 109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102399
4. Ali, R., Bakhsh, K. and Yasin, M. A. (2023) "Causal Nexus Between Air Transportation and economic Growth in BRICS Countries", Journal of Air Transport Management, 107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102335
5. Alıcı, A. and Samed Akar, A. (2020) "Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Cargo Demand: a Panel Data Analysis", Transport & Logistics: The International Journal, 20(48): 11–23.
6. Alnıpak, S. and Kale, S. (2022) "Determinants of Air Cargo Demand in The European Region", Journal of Aviation, 6(2): 118–125. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1053662
7. Altuntaş, M. and Kılıç, E. (2021) "Havayolu Taşımacılığı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği", Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(1): 187–202. https://doi.org/10.32709/akusosbil.716045
8. Anderson, J. E. (1979) "A theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation" American Economic Review, 69(1): 106–116.

9. Arellano, M. (1987). Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4): 431–434. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1987.mp49004006.x
10. Aydın, U. and Ülengin, B. (2022a) "Analyzing Air Cargo Flows of Turkish Domestic Routes: A Comparative Analysis of Gravity Models", Journal of Air Transport Management, 102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102217
11. Aydın, U. and Ülengin, B. (2022b) "Is Ignoring the Zero Market a Panacea? A Comparison of Gravity Models for Turkish International Air Cargo", Research in Transportation Business and Management, 45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2022.100870
12. Baltagi, B. H. and Hausman, J. A. (2012) "Essays in Honor of Jerry Hausman", Bingley: Emerald. https://doi.org/10.1108/s0731-9053(2012)0000029024
13. Belobaba, P., Odoni, A. and Barnhart, C. (2016) "The Global Airline Industry. In The Global Airline Industry", Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470744734
14. Boeing (2022) "World Air Cargo Forecast 2022–2041 In Forecast", https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/boeing/boeingdotcom/market/assets/downloads/Boeing_World_Air_Cargo_Forecast_2022.pdf
15. Çakır, M. H. and Küçükkaplan, İ. (2012) "İşletme Sermayesi Unsurlarının Firma Değeri ve Karlılığı Üzerindeki Etkisinin İMKB’de İşlem Gören Üretim Firmalarında 2000 – 2009 Dönemi İçin Analizi", The Journal of Accounting and Finance, 53: 69–86. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/426946
16. Chang, Y. H. and Chang, Y. W. (2009) "Air Cargo Expansion and Economic Growth: Finding the Empirical Link", Journal of Air Transport Management, 15(5): 264–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2008.09.016
17. Chen, S. C., Kuo, S. Y., Chang, K. W. and Wang, Y. T. (2012) "Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Air Passenger and Air Cargo Demand: The application of back-propagation neural networks" Transportation Planning and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2012.673272
18. Chi, J. (2016) "Exchange Rate and Transport Cost Sensitivities of Bilateral Freight Flows Between the US and China", Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 89: 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2016.05.004
19. Choi, J. H. (2023) "A Study on the Change in the Significance of GDP as a Determinant of air Demand - Discussions on Brand-New Air Transport Items", Transport Policy, 133: 186–197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.004
20. Doganis, R. (2006) "The Airline Business", In The Airline Business. London: Routloedge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203596807
21. Erdinç, Z. and Aydınbaş, G. (2021) "Tarımsal Katma Değer Belirleyicilerinin Panel Veri Analizi", Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1): 213–232. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.902602
22. Fageda, X., Fioravanti, R., Ricover, A., Café, E. and Ansaldo, M. (2023) "Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Air Cargo Services Supply in Latin America and the Caribbean", Transport Policy, 135: 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.03.009
23. Gong, Q., Wang, K., Fan, X., Fu, X. and Xiao, Y. bin. (2018) "International Trade Drivers and Freight Network Analysis - The case of the Chinese Air Cargo Sector", Journal of Transport Geography, 71: 253–262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.02.009
24. Grosso, M. and Shepherd, B. (2011) "Air Cargo Transport in APEC: Regulation and Effects on Merchandise Trade" Journal of Asian Economics, 22(3): 203–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.02.004
25. Gujarati, N. D. and Porter, C. D. (2012) "Basic Econometrics", In Temel Ekonometri. İstanbul: Literatür.
26. Güzel, G. and Tunalı, H. (2025). "Türkiye'de Hava Kargo Sektörünü Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler", İstanbul Aydın Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(2): 211-227.
27. Hakim, M. M. and Merkert, R. (2016) "The Causal Relationship Between Air Transport and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Asia", Journal of Transport Geography, 56: 120–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.09.006
28. Hakim, M. M. and Merkert, R. (2019) "Econometric Evidence on the Determinants of Air Transport in South Asian countries", Transport Policy, 83: 120–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.12.003
29. Hanlon, P. (2006) "Global Airlines: Competition in a Transnational Industry. In Global Airlines: Competition in a transnational industry", Oxford: Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780080456102
30. Hausman, J. A. (1978) "Econometrica - Specification Tests in Econometrics", Econometrica, 46(6): 1251–1271. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
31. Hwang, C. C. and Shiao, G. C. (2011) "Analyzing Air Cargo Flows of International Routes: an Empirical Study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport" Journal of Transport Geography, 19(4): 738–744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.09.001
32. IATA (2024) "Air Cargo Brochure. The Value of Air Cargo, Ar Cargo Makes it Happen", https://www.iata.org/contentassets/4d3961c878894c8a8725278607d8ad52/air-cargo-brochure.pdf
33. ICAO and WCO. (2023) "Moving Air Cargo Globally. In Air Cargo and Mail Secure Supply Chain and Facilitation Guidelines", https://www.icao.int/Security/aircargo/Documents/Moving Air Cargo Globally - Third edition.EN.pdf
34. Kasarda, J. D. and Green, J. D. (2005) "Air Cargo as an Economic Development Engine: A note on Opportunities and Constraints", Journal of Air Transport Management, 11(6): 459–462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2005.06.002
35. Kiracı, K. (2025). "The Nexus Between Air Cargo and International Trade: Empirical Evidence From Country Groups", Journal of Air Transport Management, 125, 102778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102778
36. Kiracı, K. and Battal, Ü. (2018) "Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Transportation: A VAR Analysis on Turkey", Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 17(4): 1518–1539. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.391041
37. Kupfer, F., Meersman, H., Onghena, E. and Van de Voorde, E. (2017) "The Underlying Drivers and Future Development of Air Cargo", Journal of Air Transport Management, 61: 6–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.07.002
38. Kuyucak, F. and Vasigh, B. (2012) "Civil Aviation", In H. K. Anheier & M. Juergensmeyer (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Global Studies. New York: Sage Publications.
39. Linnemann, H. (1966) "An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows", The Economic Journal, 77(306), 366–368. https://doi.org/10.2307/2229319
40. Micco, A. and Serebrisky, T. (2006) "Competition Regimes and Air Transport Costs: The Effects of Open Skies Agreements" Journal of International Economics, 70(1): 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.06.015
41. Morrell, P. S. (2011) "Moving boxes by air: The Economics of International Air Cargo. In Moving Boxes by Air: The Economics of International Air Cargo", Farnham: Ashgate Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315180632
42. Nguyen, Q. H., Tran, P. Q. and Ngo, P. D. (2025) "Air Cargo Traffic Forecasting Model : An empirical Study in Vietnam Using the SARIMA-X /( E ) GARCH model", Research in Transportation Business & Management, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101268
43. Oesingmann, K. (2022) "The Determinants of Air Cargo Flows and the Role of Multinational Agreements: An Empirical Comparison with Trade and Air Passenger Flows", World Economy, 45(8): 2370–2393. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13245
44. Pöyhönen, P. (1963) "A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90: 93–100.
45. Sales, M. and Scholte, S. (2023) "Air Cargo Management: Air Freight and the Global Supply Chain: Second edition. In Air Cargo Management: Air Freight and the Global Supply Chain (Third)", London: Routloedge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003167167
46. Sarıkovanlık, V., Koy, A., Akkaya, M., Yıldırım, H. H. and Lokman Kantar. (2020) "Finans Biliminde Ekonometri Uygulamaları (Second)", Ankara: Seçkin Yayınları.
47. Schäfer, J. G. (2023) "Air Cargo: Participants - Processes - Markets - Developments. In Air Cargo: Participants - Processes - Markets - Developments", Wiesbaden: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38193-6
48. Sturm, J. E. and de Haan, J. (2005) "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: New Results Applying Robust Estimation and Extreme Bounds Analysis", Empirical Economics, 30(3): 597–617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0252-x
49. Taşdemir, M. and Yıldız, R. (2022) "Hava Kargo Taşımacılığının Dış Ticaret ve GSMH Üzerindeki Etkilerine Yönelik Çalışma: Avrupa Örneği", International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 18(4): 1150–1180. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1117346
50. Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2021) "Panel Veri Ekonometrisi", İstanbul: Beta Basın Yayın Dağıtım A.Ş.
51. Tinbergen, J. (1962) "Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy", New York: The Twentieth Century Fund. https://doi.org/10.2307/1236502
52. Tuncer, B. and Aydoğan, K. (2019) "Yakıt Mali̇yetleri̇ni̇n Taşınan Hava Kargo Mi̇ktarı Üzeri̇ne Etki̇leri̇: 2007-2018 Türki̇ye Örneği̇", Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 143–158. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.517774
53. Üçler, Y. T. (2026). "Havayolu Taşımacılığı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: G7 Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Örneği". Fiscaoeconomia, 10(1): 1-21. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon. 1798072
54. Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data".Cambridge: MIT Press.
55. WTO. (2006) "Developments in the Air Transport Sector: Quantitative Air Service Agreements Review: Vol.SCW/270",https://doi.org/https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/transport_e/review2_e.htm
56. Yamaguchi, K. (2008) "International Trade and Air Cargo: Analysis of US export and Air Transport Policy", Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 44(4): 653–663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2007.05.006