ON THE SENSITIVITY AND CONVERGENCE PROPERTIES OF THE LEONTIEF INVERSE: A LINEAR-ALGEBRAIC APPROACH WITH A FOUR-SECTOR APPLICATION

Öz

This study explores the economy-wide consequences of changes in food-sector demand using a four-sector input-output framework intentionally simplified yet reflecting key structural characteristics of the Turkish economy. The analysis is confined to Agriculture, Food, Trade, and Transportation to make the main transmission mechanisms of demand shocks transparent. We establish a demand-driven Leontief model and assume that final demand for food products increases by 20% and then decreases by 20%. Subsequently, we monitored how this interest affected other aspects of the market through their interconnections. The results show that if food demand declines by 20%, the corresponding decline in overall output is approximately 23 billion TL. This demonstrates that a 1 lira decrease in demand for Food results in 1.99 liras in overall output. This shift influences various sectors of the economic structure differently. Agriculture is severely affected because it supplies many of the inputs required by the Food sector. Trade and Transport are not primarily influenced, as they don't directly produce it. Overall, this indicates that the Food industry, together with its vendors, is closely associated. Gradually, results have shown that input-output models are useful for analysing sectoral demand shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Input-Output analysis
• Leontief model
• Economic Multipliers
• Turkish Economy
• Computational Economics
• Matrix Algebra
• Applied Mathematics

Proje Numarası

Araştırma bir proje ile desteklenmemektedir

Etik Beyan

I declare that all processes of this study comply with research and publication ethics, and that I have adhered to ethical rules and principles of scientific citation.

ON THE SENSITIVITY AND CONVERGENCE PROPERTIES OF THE LEONTIEF INVERSE: A LINEAR-ALGEBRAIC APPROACH WITH A FOUR-SECTOR APPLICATION

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinin yapısal özelliklerini yansıtacak şekilde oluşturulan dört sektörlü (Tarım, Gıda, Ticaret ve Ulaştırma) stilize bir girdi-çıktı modeli kullanarak gıda talebindeki değişimlerin ekonomik etkilerini incelemektedir. Model, gıda ürünlerine yönelik nihai talepteki ±%20’lik bir değişimin sektörel üretim üzerindeki doğrudan ve dolaylı etkilerini Leontief’in talep yönlü çerçevesi kapsamında değerlendirmektedir. Bulgular, gıda talebindeki %20’lik bir azalmanın toplamda yaklaşık 23 milyar TL’lik üretim kaybına yol açtığını ve gıda sektörü için hesaplanan üretim çarpanının 1,99 olduğunu göstermektedir. Tarım sektörü güçlü geri bağlantılar nedeniyle önemli dolaylı kayıplar yaşarken, Ticaret ve Ulaştırma sektörleri dağıtım ve lojistik kanallarındaki daralma yoluyla etkilenmektedir. Sonuçlar, gıda değer zincirinin yapısal bağımlılıklarını ortaya koymakta ve girdi-çıktı analizinin talep şoku senaryolarının değerlendirilmesindeki analitik katkısını vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Girdi-Çıktı analizi
• Leontief modeli
• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• Ekonomik Çarpanlar

Proje Numarası

Araştırma bir proje ile desteklenmemektedir

Etik Beyan

Çalışmanın tüm süreçlerinin araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygun olduğunu, etik kurallara ve bilimsel atıf gösterme ilkelerine uyduğumu beyan ederim.

Kaynakça

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