REAL EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTS ON THE BILATERAL MANUFACTURING TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN THE US AND TÜRKİYE: A BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Öz

The exchange rate–trade balance relationship occupies a central place in open-economy macroeconomics, yet empirical evidence on whether currency depreciation generates a J-curve adjustment remains sensitive to the level of aggregation at which trade data are measured. Sector-level analysis is particularly informative in this regard, as it avoids the aggregation bias that arises when opposing dynamics across different product categories cancel each other out in country-level trade balance series. This paper investigates dynamics in the bilateral manufacturing trade balance between the United States and Türkiye using monthly sector-level data over the period 2013M01–2025M12. The trade balance is defined as the ratio of Türkiye's manufacturing exports and Türkiye’s manufacturing imports to the US. Structural breaks are identified endogenously through the Lee–Strazicich (2003) unit root test, and a step dummy variable control for the permanent level shift associated with the COVID-19 shock from March 2020 onward. The ARDL bounds test confirms a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, and the error correction estimates reveal a net negative short-run exchange rate effect that reverses to a positive and significant long-run effect, consistent with the J-curve hypothesis. The findings suggest that real depreciation of the Turkish lira improves the bilateral manufacturing trade balance in the long run, though a temporary deterioration should be anticipated before the competitiveness gains materialize.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARDL
• J-Curve
• Manufacturing Trade Balance
• Disaggregated Trade Data
• Structural Breaks
• Türkiye–US Trade

REAL EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTS ON THE BILATERAL MANUFACTURING TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN THE US AND TÜRKİYE: A BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Öz

Döviz kuru–ticaret dengesi ilişkisi, açık ekonomi makroekonomisinin merkezinde yer almakta; ancak kur değer kaybının J-eğrisi uyumunu ortaya çıkarıp çıkarmadığına ilişkin ampirik bulgular, ticaret verilerinin hangi toplama düzeyinde ölçüldüğüne karşı duyarlılığını korumaktadır. Sektör düzeyinde analiz, bu açıdan özellikle bilgi verici bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır; zira farklı ürün kategorilerindeki zıt dinamiklerin ülke düzeyindeki ticaret dengesi serilerinde birbirini sıfırlamasından kaynaklanan agregasyon yanlılığını ortadan kaldırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 2013M01–2025M12 dönemine ait aylık sektör düzeyi veriler kullanılarak ABD ile Türkiye arasındaki ikili imalat ticareti dengesindeki J-eğrisi dinamiklerini incelemektedir. Ticaret dengesi, Türkiye'nin ABD'ye imalat ihracatının imalat ithalatına oranı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Yapısal kırılmalar, Lee–Strazicich (2003) birim kök testi aracılığıyla içsel olarak belirlenmekte; 2020 yılı Mart ayından itibaren geçerli olan COVID-19 şokuyla ilişkili kalıcı düzey kaymasını kontrol etmek amacıyla kademeli bir kukla değişken modele eklenmektedir. ARDL sınır testi, kararlı bir uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisini doğrulamakta; hata düzeltme modeli tahminleri ise kısa dönemde net negatif olan döviz kuru etkisinin uzun dönemde pozitif ve anlamlı bir değere dönüştüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgu, J-eğrisi hipotezi sağlandığıyla tutarlıdır. Sonuçlar, Türk lirasının reel değer kaybının uzun vadede ikili imalat ticareti dengesini iyileştirdiğine işaret etmekle birlikte, rekabet edebilirlik kazanımlarının gerçekleşmesinden önce kısa vadeli bir bozulma döneminin yaşanacağını da göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ARDL
• J-Eğrisi
• İmalat Ticareti Dengesi
• Ayrıştırılmış Ticaret Verisi
• Yapısal Kırılmalar
• Türkiye–ABD Ticareti

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