THE IMPACTS OF CORRUPTION ON BUDGET BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Öz

Today, maintaining stability, transparency and budget balance are main indicators for developed and emerging countries. Corruption, causing deviation from these indicators and its results are important issues that should be researched. Because, corruption changes the composition of public expenditures leading to inefficient expenditures, as well as dissolving public revenues and affecting budget balance negatively. Increase in budget deficit causes an increase in public debt stock. In this study, the effect of corruption in Turkey on budget balance and public debt is analyzed by using Johansen cointegration, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model) and Granger Causality methods for 1995-2019 years. Empirical findings state that there is not cointegration relationship among variables and there are causalities from budget deficits and public debt burden to corruption and from budget deficit to public debt. VAR method provides evidence that budget deficit and corruption affect each other.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• corruption
• budget balance
• Public Debt Stock

TÜRKİYE’DE YOLSUZLUĞUN BÜTÇE DENGESİ VE KAMU BORÇLANMASI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: BİR AMPİRİK ANALİZ

Öz

Günümüzde gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için istikrar, şeffaflık ve bütçe dengesinin sağlanması önemli göstergeler arasında yer almaktadır. Bu göstergelerden sapmalara neden olan yolsuzluk olgusu ve sonuçları ise araştırılması gereken önemli bir sorunsal olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Çünkü yolsuzluk kamu gelirlerini eritmenin yanında kamu harcamalarının kompozisyonunu değiştirerek verimsiz harcamalara yol açmakta ve bütçe dengesini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Artan bütçe açıkları ise kamu borç stokunun artışını beraberinde getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1995-2019 zaman aralığı için yolsuzluğun bütçe dengesi ve borçlanma üzerindeki etkisini Johansen Eşbütünleşme, VAR (Vector Otoregresif Model) ve Granger Nedensellik yöntemleri ile analiz etmektedir. Ampirik bulgular değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını, bütçe açıklarından ve borç yükünden yolsuzluğa ve bütçe açıklarından borçlanmaya doğru nedenselliklerin var olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. VAR yöntemi ise bütçe açıklarının ve yolsuzluğun birbirlerinden etkilendiklerine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yolsuzluk
• Bütçe Dengesi
• Kamu Borç Stoku

Kaynakça

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