THE MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF NEET: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES AND RUSSIA

Öz

This study aims to investigate the impact of macroeconomic indicators on Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) population in Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey accepted as Fragile Five countries and Russia 2005-2018 period by using the panel data analysis method. Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDP), Inflation Rate (Consumer prices, INF), Adjusted savings for education expenditure (% of Gross National Income, S), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), HDI index data were used for explaining the NEET for selected countries. The relationship between variables was analyzed using the Panel Data Methods via Fixed-Effects Model. Therefore, according to the findings of Driscoll and Kraay Estimator- One-Way Fixed Effects Model, "HDI, GDP, FDI and S" variables have a statistically significant effect on NEET as the dependent variable. According to findings, while a 1% increase in HDI and FDI respectively give rise an increase of 2.14% and 0.03% on NEET, a 1% increase in GDP, and S resulted in a decrease of 0.77% and 0.38% on NEET. The findings of the correlation matrix of residuals revealed that the correlation between countries was highest between India and Brazil and the lowest between Russia and Indonesia. According to preliminary results requirement for human development indicators and attraction to FDI should be directed to rural areas for reducing the NEET rates in FFC.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fragile Five
• NEET
• Youth Unemployment
• Panel Data Analysis
• Fixed Effects Model.

NEET’İN MAKROEKONOMİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİ VE RUSYA İÇİN BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2005-2018 yılları arasında Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri olarak kabul edilen Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ile Rusya’nın Ne Eğitimde, Ne İstihdamda (NEET) yer alan nüfusu üzerindeki makroekonomik göstergelerin etkisini panel veri analizi yöntemi ile araştırmaktır. Araştırmada NEET’in belirleyicilerini açıklamak için kişi başına düşen Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla, Enflasyon Oranı (Tüketici fiyatları), Gayrisafi Milli Gelir içindeki eğitim harcamaları için yapılan tasarruf (%), Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İnsani Kalkınma Endeksi verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki panel veri yöntemleri Sabit Etkiler Modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu nedenle Driscoll ve Kraay Tahmincisi- Tek Yönlü Sabit Etkiler Modeli bulgularına göre “HDI, GDP, FDI ve S” değişkenlerinin bağımlı değişken olan NEET üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etki etmektedir. HDI, FDI GDP ve S’de meydana gelen %1’lik bir artış, NEET üzerinde sırasıyla %2,14’lük ve %0.03’lük bir artışa; %0.77 ve %0.38’lik bir azalışa sebep olmaktadır. Artıkların Korelasyon Matrisi bulguları ise ülkeler arasında korelasyonun Hindistan ve Brezilya arasında en yüksek, Rusya ve Endonezya arasında ise en düşük düzeyde olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde NEET sorunun azaltılması için insani gelişim gösterge ihtiyaçları ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilgisinin kırsal kalkınma bölgelerine yönlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kırılgan Beşli
• NEET
• Genç İşsizliği
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Sabit Etkiler Modeli

Kaynakça

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