THE EFFECT OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ON AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND LEVERAGE

Öz

Consumer confidence measures and their effects on macroeconomic variables have been subject to extensive research since it was devised in the 1940s. Some empirical studies suggest that it is one of the leading causes of macroeconomic fluctuations through its effects on household consumption. Particularly, consumer durables spending and household borrowing are found to be sensitive to consumer confidence. In this study, a stock-flow-consistent system dynamics model is developed to explain how consumer confidence affects the aggregate household behavior and the macroeconomic dynamics of the economy. The simulation results confirm that consumer confidence strongly affects the economy's dynamic behavior. It is shown that the psychological and structural parameters determine the stability properties of the economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumer confidence
• Consumption
• Borrowing
• stock-flow-consistent framework
• System dynamics
• Simulation

TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİNİN TOPLAM HANEHALKI TÜKETİMİ VE KALDIRACI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Öz

1940'larda kavramsal olarak ortaya çıkışından bu yana, tüketici güveni ölçütleri ve bunların makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerine ilişkin birçok araştırma yapılmıştır. Bazı ampirik çalışmalar, tüketici güveninin hanehalkı tüketimi üzerindeki etkileri aracılığıyla makroekonomik dalgalanmaların en önemli nedenlerinden biri olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Özellikle, dayanıklı tüketim malı harcamaları ve hanehalkı borçlanması tüketici güvenine oldukça duyarlıdır. Bu çalışmada, tüketici güveninin toplam hanehalkı davranışını ve tüm ekonomiyi nasıl etkilediğini açıklamak üzere stok-akım-tutarlı bir sistem dinamiği modeli geliştirilmiştir. Simülasyon sonuçları tüketici güveninin ekonominin dinamik davranışını güçlü bir biçimde etkilediğini teyit etmiştir. Bunun yanında, ekonomideki psikolojik ve yapısal parametrelerin ekonominin istikrarlılığını belirlediği ortaya konulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tüketici Güveni
• Tüketim
• Borçlanma
• Stok-akım-tutarlı modelleme
• sistem dinamiği
• simülasyon

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