PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, EXCHANGE RATE AND TRADE OPENNESS IN NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

Öz

This study examines the effects of foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, real exchange rate, and trade openness on economic growth in newly industrialized countries for 1982 and 2019 by using the panel ARDL method. Before estimating panel ARDL, we tested the existence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries, determining the degree of the integrations of variables by using second-generation panel unit root tests and examining the cointegration among the variables. Finally, we carry out the Dumitreuscu Hurlin causality test to determine the direction of the causal relationship between variables. The study results indicate a positive long-run relationship between economic growth and FDI, gross capital formation and real exchange rate, and a negative long-run relationship with trade openness. The study's findings have significant implications for the industrial policies that these countries should adopt to reach developed countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Newly Industrialized Countries
• Panel ARDL
• Panel Unit Root Tests
• Panel Cointegration Tests
• Dumitrescu Hurlin Causality Test

YENİ SANAYİLEŞEN ÜLKELERDE EKONOMIK BÜYÜME, DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIM, DÖVİZ KURU VE TİCARİ AÇIKLIK ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde 1982 ve 2019 yılları için doğrudan yabancı yatırım, brüt sabit sermaye oluşumu, reel döviz kuru ve ticarete açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini panel ARDL yöntemiyle araştırmaktadır. Panel ARDL'yi tahmin etmeden önce, ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığını test edilmiştir. İkinci nesil panel birim kök testleri kullanarak değişkenlerin entegrasyon derecesi belirlenmiş ve aralarındaki eşbütünleşme incelenmiştir. Son olarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensel ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek için Dumitreuscu Hurlin nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme ile DYY, brüt sermaye oluşumu ve reel döviz kuru arasında uzun dönemli pozitif bir ilişkiye ve ticari açıklık ile uzun dönemli negatif bir ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, bu ülkelerin gelişmiş ülkelere ulaşmak için benimsemeleri gereken sanayi politikaları üzerinde önemli etkilere sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkeler
• Panel ARDL
• Panel Birim Kök Testleri
• Panel Eşbütünleşme Testleri
• Dumitrescu Hurlin Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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