SEÇİLMİŞ ASYA ÜLKELERİNDE HANEHALKI TASARRUFLARI VE FİNANSAL GELİŞME

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 2, 286 - 316, 30.06.2018

Rüya Eser , Bahadır Sinan

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.422007

Cited By: 2

Öz

Ülkelerin
büyüme sürecinde önemli bir unsur olan tasarrufların, çok sayıdaki
belirleyicilerden biri finansal siteminin gelişmişlik düzeyidir. Tasarruflar
ve finansal gelişme açısından gelişmekte olan Asya ülkelerinin başarısı dikkat
çekicidir. Bu çalışmada, 2000-2016 döneminde
gelişmekte olan Çin, Güney Kore, Malezya ve Tayland’da finansal sistemin
gelişmesinin tasarruflar üzerindeki rolü çeşitli toplulaştırılmış göstergeler kapsamında
incelenmektedir. Hanehalkı tasarruflarının finansal
sistem aracılığıyla artırılması konusunda ele alınan Asya ülkelerinde geçmişte
önemli çalışmalar yapılmış ve başarılı sonuçlar alınmıştır. Ancak,
daha sonra söz konusu ülkelerin hanehalkı borçlarında ciddi artışlar meydana
gelmiş, buna karşın hanehalkı tasarruflarında önemli düzeyde azalışlar olmuştur.
Bu değişimin temel nedeni, bu ülkelerin ihracata dayalı büyüme politikalarını
değiştirerek, tüketime dayalı büyüme politikalarına yönelmeleridir. İncelenen Asya
ülkelerinin finansal gelişmişlik düzeyleri ise hala Avrupa ve Dünya
ortalamasının altında kalması nedeniyle, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin tek
başına tasarruflar üzerinde etkili olmadığı, makroekonomik veya kurumsal
faktörlere bağlı olduğu değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hanehalkı Tasarrufları, Finansal Gelişme, İktisadi Büyüme

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSEHOLD SAVING IN SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES

Öz

Saving
is one of the important determinants of economic growth. Therefore determinants
of saving are indirectly important for a sustainable economic growth. Financial
sector has come into prominence as a possible determinant of saving in the
globalized financial markets. This study examines the role of the development
of the financial sector on savings  in
China, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, during the period of 2000-2016, by
using various aggregated indicators. Significant work
has been done in the past and successful results have been obtained in the
selected Asian countries, in terms of increasing household savings through the
financial system. However, later on, there were serious increases in the
household debts of the countries concerned, while there was a significant
decline in household savings. The main reason for this change is that these
countries change their exports-based growth policies and turn to
consumption-based growth policies.It is estimated that the financial
development level of Asian countries under review is still below the average of
Europe and the world, so that the level of financial development alone is not influential
on savings and depends on macroeconomic or institutional factors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Household Savings, Financial Developmen, Economic Growth

Kaynakça

• Agrawal, P., Sahoo, P. & Dash, R.K. (2009). Savings Behaviour in South Asia. Journal of Policy Modelling, 31, 208-224.
• Ang, James, B (2010). “Saving Mobilization Financial Devolepment and Libarization: The Case Of Malaysia”, MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive,: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21718/1/MPRA_paper_ 21718.pdf, (11.02.2018)
• Arora, R.U.. (2014). Access to Finance: An Empirical Analysis, European Journal of Development Research, DOI: 10.1057/ejdr.2013.50
• Asya Kalkınma Bankası (2017) Asian Development Outlook 2017, Asian Development Bank, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/237761/ado-2017.pdf,( 01.03.2018)
• Atamtürk, Burak (2004) “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Nedensellik Yönü Üzerine Bir İnceleme (1975-2003) “İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları”, 32-46
• Atamtürk, Burak (2007) “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde ve Türkiye’de Finansal Serbestleşmenin İç Tasarruflar Üzerine Etkisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(2), 46-78.
• Aziz Zeki Akhtar (2004) “Mardeka Saving Bonds Malaysia - Encouraging Savings in a Dynamic Economy” http://www.bis.org/review/r040115c.pdf), (16.12.2017)
• Banjo, Shelly (2017) “Korea's Stubborn Leviathan”, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-11/korea-s-reform-block-the-495-billion-national-pension-service, (25.12.2017)
• Bangkokbank (2017) http://www.bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/PersonalBanking/BuildYourWealth/MutualFunds/BBLAM/RMF/Pages/default.aspx,(20.11.2017)
• Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Levine, R. (2007). Finance, Inequality and the Poor, Journal of Economic Growth 12, 27-49.
• Brandmeir, Kathrin, Michaela Grimm, Michael Heise, Arne Holzhausen (2017) Allianz Global Wealth Report 2017, https://www.allianz.com/v_1506497732000/media/press/document/AGWR_17-Report_EN.pdf (10.01.2018)
• Ceicdata (2018): https://www.ceicdata.com/en/thailand/gdp-per-capita-usd-asia/gdp-per-capita-usd, (12.11.2017)
• Connoly, Michelle, Kei-Mu-Yii (2008) How Much of South Korea’s Growth MiracleCan BeExplained by Trade Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Papers, https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp08-23bk.pdf(20.11.2017)
• Consumer (2017):https://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/personal-finance/debt/465-household-debt-in-malaysia-is-it-sustainable(12.02.2018)
• Duesenberry, J., (1949), Income, Saving, and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
• Dünya Bankası (2012) “Yüksek Büyümenin Sürdürülebilirliği: Yurtiçi Tasarrufların Rolü Türkiye Ülke Ekonomik Raporu.”66301-Tr, www.dpt.gov.tr/DocObjects/TürkiyeUlkeEkonomiRaporu Tükce.pdf, (12.02.2018).
• DünyaBankası(2016) Kalkınma Göstergeleri :https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS?end=2016&locations=TR&start=2003&view=chart(11.01.2018)
• Dünya Borsalar Federasyonu (2016) World Federation of Exchange Annual Statistics Guide, https://www.world-exchanges.org/home/index.php/statistics/annual-statistics
• Dünya Ekonomik Forumu (2011), “The Financial Development Report 2011.” World Economic Forum, New York: USA Inc.
• Eichengreen, B. (2013). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Long View.”PAFTAD, Pacific Trade and Development Working Paper Series, Paper No. 36-01.
• Ekinci, Aykut., Gül, Ekrem (2007), “Türkiye’de Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Uygulamalı Bir Analiz (1960 – 2004)”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19, 167-184.
• English Yonhapnews (2017) http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2017/11/20/0502000000AEN20171120009851320.html (11.01.2018)
• Eschenbach, Felix (2004). Finance and Growth:A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 2004-039/2.
• Easterly, W., R. Islam, and J. Stiglitz. (2000). “Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility.” In Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2000, edited by B.Pleskovic and J. E. Stiglitz, 191–211. Washington, DC: World Bank.
• Financial Tribune (2017): https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/76829/south-korea-household-debt-surpasses-13t(12.01.2018)
• Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• Gerschenkron, Alexander (1962). Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective: A Book of Essays. Camebridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
• Goldsmith, Raymond W. (1969). Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
• Grabel, I. (2010) ‘Productive Incoherence in an Uncertain World’. PERI Working Paper 214, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
• Haberturk (2017): 12 Kasım 2017 http://www.haberturk.tv/ekonomi/haber/1710636-cin-de-bekarlar-gunu-nde-alisveris-cilginligi,(12.01.2018)
• Hansson, Pontus, Lars Jonung (1997):“Finance and Economic Growth: the Case Sweden, 1834-1991.”, Research in Economics, 51, 1997, 276-277.
• Hepsağ, Aycan (2009). “Finansal Liberalizasyon Politikalarının Geçerliliğinin McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3, 56-73.
• Horoiko, Charles Yuji, Hagiwara, Akiko Terada (2011 ). “The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia”, NBER Working Paper No. 17581
• Hung, Juann H., Rong Qian (2010). “Why Is China’s Saving Rate So High? A Comparative Study of Cross-Country Panel Data”, Working Paper Series, Congressional Budget Office, Washington, D.C., 21-87.
• Işık, Sayim, Harun Doğan, Cem Kadılar (2005), “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: Mckinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 37-51.
• Kadılar, Cem, Harun Doğan, Sayım Işık (2005) “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: Mckinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 20(233), 37–51.
• Jha, Shikha, Eswar Prasad, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara (2009) Saving in Asia and Issues for Rebalancing Growth, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28252/economics-wp162.pdf, (10.01.2018)
• Jinping, Xi (2017) 19th CPC National Congress Report, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/19thcpcnationalcongress/2017-11/04/content_34115212.htm, (03.03.2018)
• Jongwanich Juthattip (2009) “The Determinants of Household and Private Savings in Thailand, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701721067, (02.01.2018)
• Keynes, John Maynard (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
• King, Robert G., Ross Levine (1993). “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 515-563.
• KPMG (2018) https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/tr/pdf/2018/01/sektorel-bakis-2018-bankacilik.pdf,(20.02.2017)
• Krin Institute (2017) http://www.krinstitute.org/The_State_of_Households_II-@HOUSEHOLD_SAVINGS_AND_DEBT.aspx,(10.12.2017)
• Lardy R. Nicholas (2006). “Chine: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path”, (Çevrimiçi): https://piie.com/publications/pb/pb06-6.pdf, 12.11.2017
• Levine, Ross (1997). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, V. 35, 688-726.
• Levine, Ross, Sara Zervos (1998) “Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 88, 537-555.
• McKinnon, Ronald I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution.
• Modigliani, Franco, Richard H. Brumberg, (1954), “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: an Interpretation of Cross-Section Data,” ed. Kenneth K. Kurihara,
• Post-Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick, NJ. Rutgers University Press, 388–436.
• Naugton, Barry (1997) The China Circle: Economics and Electronics in the PRC,Taiwan and Hong Kong, Washington D.C., Brookings Institution Press, (20.01.2018)
• Oktay, Fatih (2017) “Çin ve Değişen Dünya Dengeleri”, Dünya Gazetesi, https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/cin-ve-degisen-dunya-dengeleri/371488, (30.11.2017)
• Özlale, Ümit, Alper Karakurt (2012): “Türkiye’de Tasarruf Açığının Nedenleri ve Kapatılması İçin Politika Önerileri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 83, 1-33 http://www.tbb.org.tr/Dosyalar/Arastirma_ve_Raporlar/ozlale.pdf, (04.12.2017)
• Patrick, H.T., (1966). “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14: 174-189.
• Pension Funds Online (2018) Country Profiles, South Korea, http://www.pensionfundsonline.co.uk/content/country-profiles/south-korea/97, 28.01.2018.
• Pigou, A.C.,(1943), “The Classical Stationary State”, Economic Journal, Vol:53, Nu.212.
• Pongpen Ruengvirayudh, Sakkapop Panyanuku (2005) “The Corporate Bond Market in Thailand” , Bank of Thailand (BoT). https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap26t.pdf
• Pootrakool , K., Ariyapruchya, K., Sodsrichai, T., (2005) “Long Term Saving in Thailand”,https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/ArticleAndResearch/SymposiumDocument/paper5_2548.pdf, (10.01.2018)
• Robinson, Joan (1952). “The Generalization of the General Theory”. In The Rate of Interest and other Essays. London: Macmillan.
• Romer, P.M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037
• Schmidt-Hebbel, K., L. Serven (2002). Financial Liberalization, Saving, and Growth. Banco de Mexico Conference on Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Markets, and Economic Development, Mexico, Nov. 12-13.
• Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1911), The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
• Shaw, Edward S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press.
• Sil, Yoon Yung (2017) “Personal Financial Assets”, http:www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/industry/19521-personal-financial-assets-s-korea-ranks-22nd-capita-net-financial-assets, (12.12.2017)
• Solow, R.M. (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
• Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1989). “Financial Markets and Development”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy; V.5-#4, 55-68.
• Takeshi, Kurihara (2012). “Achievements of Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) in the last Decade and Future Challenges”, http://www.oecd.org/finance/financial-markets/49700575.pdf, (25.12.2017)
• The Economist (2017) “Mutable Values Asian households binge on debt, 2 Kasım 2017 The Economist, https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21730932-what-should-be-good-news-global-economy-has-its-downsides-asian-households, (03.03.2018)
• The Economist Eiu (2016) http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1034832687/south-korea-banking-sector-risk/2016-11-12,(12.01.2018)
• Tobin, James (1965). “Money and Economic Growth”. Econometrica; V. 33-#4, 671-684.
• Tradingeconomics (2017): https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/gross-domestic-savings-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html,(05.12.2017)
• Tupling, Campbell J (2010). “Towards the Optimal Pension System”, Malaysian Bussines, 1-45 http://www.cimbprincipal.com.my/prs/upload/Towards_an_Optimal_Pension_System_Msian_Biz.pdf, (01.02.2018)
• Uluslararası Para Fonu (2017) “Global Financial Stability Report 2017: Is Growth at Risk?”, IMF, World Economic and Financial Surveys, http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/~/media/Files/Publications/GFSR/2017/October/chapter-1/Documents/text.ashx?la=en.(02.02.2018)
• Yang, Denis Tao, Junsen Zhang, Shaojjie Zhou (2011). “Why are Saving Rates so High in China”, (Çevrimiçi): http://www.neber.org/papers/w16771, (20.12.2013).
• Zhang, Hanming Fang (2017) China’s High Saving Rate: Analytics and Prospects, https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/news/conferences/2017/0518-second-research-workshop-chinas-economy/presentations/zhang.pdf. (20.03.2018)