CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE AND FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS IN TURKEY: WHAT CAUSES WHAT?

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 4, 71 - 86, 31.12.2018

Özge Barış Tüzemen Samet Tüzemen

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.446112

Cited By: 1

Öz

Turkish
economy suffers from chronic current account deficit for many years due to insufficient
savings and dependency on import energy and intermediate goods. In order to close
the deficit, many developing countries need foreign capital. This is also the
case for the Turkish economy. In the pre-financial liberalization period, the
direction of causality would be expected from current account balance to
foreign capital. After the liberalization, on the other hand, the direction of
causality has become an intensively debated issue. This study aims to determine
the direction of the causality between current account and financial account
using Toda-Yamamoto causality and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality tests. The data
cover the period of 2002:01-2017:12. Evidence from the asymmetric causality
test shows that the negative shocks of the portfolio investment Granger causes
both the negative and the positive shocks of the current account balance in
Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ADF unit roots, Toda-Yamamoto approach, Asymmetric causality, Foreign capital inflows, Financial liberalization

TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIK VE YABANCI SERMAYE ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisi yetersiz iç
tasarruflar ve enerji ve ara malı ithalatına olan bağımlılığı nedeniyle uzun
yıllar boyunca kronik cari açık sorunuyla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Çoğu gelişmekte
olan ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de cari açığın finansmanı için yabancı
sermayeye ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Finansal serbestleşme öncesi dönemde iki
değişken arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün cari dengeden yabancı sermayeye doğru
olması beklenebilirdi. Ancak, finansal serbestleşme sonrasında sözü edilen
nedenselliğin yönü çokça tartışılan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın
amacı cari işlemler hesabı ile alt kalemler bazında finans hesabı arasındaki
olası nedensellik ilişkisini Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik ve Hatemi-J asimetrik
nedensellik testleri ile incelemektir. Bunun için aylık olarak derlenen veri
seti Ocak 2002 ile Aralık 2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Asimetrik nedensellik
testinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre finans hesabı içerisinde yer alan portföy
yatırımlarının negatif şokları cari dengenin hem negatif hem de pozitif
şoklarının Granger nedeni olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ADF birim kök testi, Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı, Asimetrik nedensellik, Yabancı sermaye girişi, Finansal serbestleşme

Kaynakça

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