MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 76 - 97, 30.06.2022

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1987-2020 döneminde yıllık ihracat ve ithalat verileri kullanılarak MINT ülkeleri için cari açığın sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını Husted (1992) ve Quintos (1995) modelleri bağlamında analiz etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tahmini için Durbin-Hausman testi, katsayı tahmini için ortak ilişkili etkiler ortalama grup tahmincisi (CCE-MG), nedensellik ilişkisinin tahmini için ise Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) bootstrap panel nedensellik yaklaşımları kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonuçları ihracat ve ithalat değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiklerini, diğer bir ifade ile eşbütünleşik olduklarını ortaya koymuştur. Dolayısı ile MINT ülkeleri için cari açığın sürdürülebilir olduğu ifade edilebilir. Öte yandan uzun dönem katsayı tahmincisi sonuçlarına göre MINT ülkeleri için ithalat değişkeninin katsayı değeri 0.31 olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuç Husted (1992) ve Quintos (1995) modelleri bağlamında bu ülkeler için cari açığın zayıf düzeyde sürdürülebilir olduğu anlamına gelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cari Açık, Sürdürülebilirlik, Panel Veri Analizi, MINT Ülkeleri.

Destekleyen Kurum

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemektedir.

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