The Asymmetric Effects of Consumer Confidence on Credit Card Spending in Turkey

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 1, 101 - 114, 28.03.2024

Ali İlhan

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1407003

Öz

This paper analyzes the asymmetric effects of consumer confidence on personal credit card expenditures in Turkey. To this end, the impact of the consumer confidence index on real credit card spending is investigated from January 2013 to June 2023 using the threshold generalized method of moments (GMM). The linear GMM model findings indicate that consumer confidence increases real credit card expenditures. Furthermore, when the threshold GMM model is estimated using the annual percentage change of the consumer confidence index as a threshold variable, the coefficients differ across low- and high-confidence regimes. More specifically, the consumer confidence index has a statistically significant positive impact on credit card expenditure in the low-confidence regime but not in the high-confidence regime. This indicates that the optimistic expectations of economic units in a low-confidence environment may stimulate credit card spending.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Consumer Confidence, Credit Card Spending, Threshold GMM, Turkey

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma etik kurul izni gerektirmemektedir.

Kaynakça

• Ahmed, M. I. and Cassou, S. P. (2016) “Does Consumer Confidence Affect Durable Goods Spending During Bad and Good Economic Times Equally?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 50: 86-97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.008.
• Ando, A. and Modigliani, F. (1963) “The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications Test”, The American Economic Review, 53(1): 55-84.
• Arabacı, Ö. and Özdemir, M. (2020) “Türkiye’de Tüketici Güveni ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi”, TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 7(1): 231-248. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.618904.
• Arısoy, İ. (2012) “Türkiye Ekonomisinde İktisadi Güven Endeksleri ve Seçilmiş Makro Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 162, 304-315.
• Arısoy, İ. and Aytun, C. (2014) “Türkiye’de Tüketim Harcamaları, Krediler ve Tüketici Güveni Arasındaki İlişkilerin Analizi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(2): 33-45.
• Barsky, R. B. and Sims, E. R. (2012). “Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence”, American Economic Review, 102(4): 1343-1377. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.04.1343.
• Brito, D. L. and Hartley, P. R. (1995) “Consumer Rationality and Credit Cards”, The Journal of Political Economy, 103(2): 400-433.
• BRSA (2023) “Monthly Banking Sector Data”, https://www.bddk.org.tr/BultenAylik/tr/Home/Gelismis (29.09.2023).
• Caporale, G. M., Helmi, M. H., Çatık, A. N., Ali, F. M. and Akdeniz, C. (2018) “Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is There an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor rule?”, Economic Modelling, 72:306-319. https://10.1016/j.econmod.2018.02.006.
• CBRT (2014) “Financial Stability Report”, No. 19 https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Reports/Financial+Stability+Report/2014/Financial+Stability+Report+-November+2014%2C+Volume+19, (29.09.2023).
• Dees, S. and Brinca, P. S. (2013) “Consumer Confidence as A Predictor of Consumption Spending: Evidence for The United States and The Euro Area”, International Economics, 134: 1-14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2013.05.001.
• Deniz, P. and Aslanoğlu, E. (2020) “Consumer Confidence in a Structural VAR Model for a Small Open Economy: Turkish Case”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 651: 113-132.
• Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517.
• Friedman, M. (1957) “Theory of Consumption Function”, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. Ghosh, S. (2021) “Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis”, Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, 20(1): 53-85. https://doi.org/10.1177/0976747919898906.
• Gündüz, İ. O., Sönmezler, G. and Akduğan, U. (2017) “An Analysis of the Relationship Between Consumer Confidence Index and Credit Card Expenditures in Turkey”, International Refereed Academic Social Sciences Journal, 27. https://doi.org/10.17364/IIB.2017.3.1
• Hall, R. E. (1978) “Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6): 971-987.
• Juhro, S. M. and Iyke, B. N. (2020) “Consumer Confidence and Consumption Expenditure in Indonesia”, Economic Modelling, 89:367-377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001.
• Kara, H. (2016) “Turkey’s Experience with Macroprudential Policy”, BIS Papers, No. 86, 123-140. Karasoy Can, H. G. and Yüncüler, Ç. (2018) “The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(9): 2136-2152. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1358608.
• Katona, G. (1968) “Consumer Behavior: Theory and Findings on Expectations and Aspirations”, The American Economic Review, 58(2): 19-30.
• Keynes, J. M. (1936) “The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money”, London: Macmillian. Lamdin, D. J. (2008) “Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?”, Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 29: 279-288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-008-9099-6.
• Mankiw, N. G. (2010) “Makroekonomi”, Ö. F. Çolak (ed.), 1st edition, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
• Martin, C. and Milas, C. (2013) “Financial Crises and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the UK”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9: 654-661. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2012.08.002.
• Mazibaş, M. and Tuna, Y. (2017) “Understanding the Recent Growth in Consumer Loans and Credit Cards in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(10): 2333-2346. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1196895.
• Modigliani, F. and R. Brumberg (1954) “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data”, K. Kurihara (ed.) Post Keynesian Economics, New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 388-436.
• Mynaříková, L. and Pošta, V. (2023) “The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior”, Journal of Happiness Studies, 24: 429-453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-022-00603-5.
• Öztürk, B. and Stokman, A. C. J. (2019) “Animal Spirits and Household Spending in Europe and the US”, Economics Letters, 185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108697.
• Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2): 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335.
• Sönmezler, G., Gündüz, İ. O. and Torun, M. (2019) “Türkiye’de Kredi Kartı Harcamaları ile Tüketici Güven Endeksi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 28(1): 17-29.
• Taylor, M. P. and Davradakis, E. (2006) “Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 10(4). https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1359.
• TURKSTAT (2023) “Tüketici Eğilim İstatistikleri ve Tüketici Güven Endeksi” https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Ekonomik-Guven-117 (05.10.2023).
• Vergili, G. (2023) “Tüketici Güven ve Fiyat Endeksleri Banka ve Kredi Kartı Harcamalarında Etkili Mi?”, Uluslararası Akademik Birikim Dergisi, 6(1): 19-28. https://doi.org/10.53001/uluabd.2023.53.
• Yamak, R., Yamak, N. and Erkan, E. (2019) “Tüketim Fonksiyonu ve Tüketici Güven Endeksi”, Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(19): 511-532. https://doi.org/10.9775/kauiibfd.2019.021.
• Yıldırım, M. and Demir, H. U. (2021) “Kredi Kartı Harcamalarını Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler ve COVID-19 Pandemi Dönemi Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1): 159-180. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.830559.