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THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1, 139 - 159

Zaim Reha Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1621178

Öz

Uncertainties create asymmetric and variable effects in economic and financial decision-making processes. However, empirical findings on how these effects differ depending on market conditions remain to be limited. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the returns of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) index in a layered manner, using a quantile regression model, in the case of Türkiye. Empirical findings show that both economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty have a negative impact on returns during periods of poor market conditions.This result indicates that rising uncertainty increases the risk premium, triggers negative expectations in the market and worsens market conditions.On the other hand, when market returns tend to increase, the impact of uncertainties changes in a positive direction and increasing uncertainties have positive effects on returns. As a result, the findings provided by quantile regression reveal that the effects of uncertainty on financial markets are not static and homogeneous but variable.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kantitatif Regresyon Hisse Senedi Getirileri Belirsizlikler

Etik Beyan

Etik kurul onayı veya izni gerektiren herhangi bir durum bulunmamaktadır.

Destekleyen Kurum

Yoktur

Teşekkür

Yoktur

Kaynakça

  • Abdalla, I. S. A., and Murinde, V. (1997) “Exchange Rate And Stock Price Interactions in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan, and Philippines”, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), 25–35.
  • Amano, R.A. and Norden, S. (1992) “Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof”, Working Paper No. 92-7, Bank Of Canada.
  • Ariff, M., Chung T. F., and Shamsher, M. (2012)M “oney Supply, Interest Rate, Liquidity and Share Prices: A Test of Their Linkage”, Global Finance Journal, 23, 202–220.
  • Bahloul, S., and Ben Amor, N. (2022) “A Quantile Regression Approach to Evaluate the Relative Impact of Global and Local Factors on the MENA Stock Markets”, International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17(10), 2763-2786.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016) “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636.
  • Belen, M., and Karamelikli, H. (2016) “Türkiye’de Hisse Senedi Getirileri ile Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Yaklaşımı”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 45(1), 34-42.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983) “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85.
  • Bernanke, B., and K. N. Kuttner. (2005). What Explains The Stock Market’s Reaction To Federal Reserve Policy?. The Journal Of Finance, 60(3), 1221–1257.
  • Boyacıoğlu, M. A., and Çürük, D. (2016). Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Hisse Senedi Getirisine Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, (70), 143-156.
  • Bloom, N. (2009) “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685.
  • Bloom, N., Kose, A. M., and Terrones, M. E. (2013) “Held Back by Uncertainty: Recoveries Are Slowed When Businesses and Consumers Are Unsure of the Future”, Finance & Development, 50, 38-41. Https://Www.Elibrary.İmf.Org/View/Journals/022/0050/001/Article-A012-En.Xml
  • Cai, Y. (2018) “Predictive Power of Us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shock on Stock Returns in Australia and New Zealand”, Australian Economic Papers, 57(4), 470–488.
  • Cassola, N., and C. Morana. (2004) “Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in the Euro Area”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 26(3), 387–399.
  • Chen, Y., Zhu, X., and Li, H. (2022) “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Uncertainty on Non-Ferrous Metal Market: Based on Quantile Regression”, Energy, 246, 123365.
  • Chiang, T. C. (2021) “Spillovers of U.S. Market Volatility and Monetary Policy Uncertainty to Global Stock Markets”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58.
  • Chulia, H., M. Martens, and D. V. Dijk. (2010) “Asymmetric Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities and Correlations”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(4), 834–839.
  • Dağlı, H., and Ayaydın, H. (2012) “Gelişen Piyasalarda Hisse Senedi Getirisini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Bir İnceleme: Panel Veri Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 45-65.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R. (1994) “Investment Under Uncertainty”, Princeton University Press. Https://Doi.Org/10.1515/9781400830176
  • Dornbush, R., and Fisher S. (1980) “Exchange Rates and the Current Account”, American Economic Review, 70, 960– 971. Enders, W. (2008) “Applied Econometric Time Series”, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Erilli, N., and Çamurlu, S. (2018) “Kantil Regresyon Analizinde Bootstrap Tahmini”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 35(2), 16-25.
  • Ewing, B. T., J. E. Payne, and S. M. Forbes. (1998) “Co-Movement of the Prime Rate, CD Rate, and The S&P Financial Stock Index”, Journal of Financial Research, 21(4), 469–482.
  • Ewing, B. T., S. M. Forbes, and J. E. Payne. (2003) “The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks on Sector-Specific Returns”, Applied Economics ,35(2), 201–207.
  • Fama, E. F. (1981) “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money”, The American Economic Review, 71(4): 545–565.
  • Ge, Z. (2023) “The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on China Stock Market: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 89, 120-125.
  • Granger, C. W., and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995) “Basic Econometrics”, Third Edition, Singapore.
  • Heimonen, K.(2010) “Money and Equity Returns in the Euro Area”, Global Finance Journal, 21(2),152–169.
  • Jin, J. Y., Kanagaretnam, K. G., Liu, Y., and Lobo, G. J. (2018) “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and Bank Earnings Opacity”, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and Bank Earnings Opacity (January 6).
  • Kabir, S. H., Bashar, O. K., and Masih, A. M. M. (2014) “Is Domestic Stock Price Cointegrated with Exchange Rate and Foreign Stock Price? Evidence from Malaysia”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 285-302.
  • Kapusuzoğlu, A., and İbicioğlu, M. (2010) “Döviz Kuru ile Hisse Senedi Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Muhasebe Bilimi Dünyası, 12(4), 135-153.
  • Kartal, M. T., Ayhan, F., and Altaylar, M. (2023) “The Impacts of Financial and Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Stability in Emerging Countries: Evidence from Turkey’s Nonperforming Loans”, Journal of Risk, 25(3).
  • Kassouri, Y., and Altıntaş, H. (2020) “Threshold Cointegration, Nonlinearity, and Frequency Domain Causality Relationship Between Stock Price and Turkish Lira”, Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 1– 18.
  • Kaya, V., Çömlekçi, İ., and Kara, O. (2013) “Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler 2002-2012 Türkiye Örneği”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı 35,167-176
  • Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G. (1978) “Regression Quantiles”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50.
  • Koenker, R. (2005) “Quantile Regression”, Cambridge University Press, USA.
  • Koenker, R., and Hallock, K.F. (2001) “Quantile Regression: An Introduction”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 143–156.
  • Kumar, N. P., and P. Padhi. (2012) “The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data”, Munich Personal Repec Archive MPRA Paper No. 38980, 1–24.
  • Kundu, S., and Paul, A. (2022) “Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Return and Volatility Under Heterogeneous Market Characteristics”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 80, 597-612.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y. (1992) “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Kwon, C. S., and T. S. Shin. (1999) “Cointegration and Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal ,10(1), 71–81.
  • Maskay, B. (2007) “Analyzing the Effect of Change in Money Supply on Stock Prices”, The Park Place Economist, 15(1), 72-79.
  • Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Reboredo, J. C., and Nguyen, D. K. (2014) “Do Global Factors Impact BRICS Stock Markets? A Quantile Regression”, Approach. Emerging Markets Review, 19, 1-17.
  • Nusair, S. A., and Al-Khasawneh, J. A. (2023) “Changes in Oil Price and Economic Policy Uncertainty and the G7 Stock Returns: Evidence from Asymmetric Quantile Regression Analysis”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56(3), 1849-1893.
  • Obben, J., Pech, A., and Shakur, S. (2006) “Analysis of the Relationship Between the Share Market Performance and Exchange Rates in New Zealand: A Cointegrating VAR Approach”, New Zealand Economic Papers, 40(2), 147- 180.
  • Paule-Vianez, J., Gómez-Martínez, R.,and Prado-Román, C. (2020a) “Effect of Economic and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Stock Markets. Evidence on Return, Volatility and Liquidity”, Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1261–1271.
  • Paule-Vianez, J., Prado-Román, C., and Gómez-Martínez, R. (2020b) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns: Influence of Limits to Arbitrage and the Economic Cycle”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 777–798.
  • Pearce, D. K., and Roley, V. V. (1984) “Stock Prices and Economic News (No. W1296)”, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika,75, 335-346. Ratanapakorn, O., and S. C. Sharma. (2007) “Dynamic Analysis Between The US Stock Returns and the Macroeconomic Variables”, Applied Financial Economics, 17(5), 369–377.
  • Sellin, P. (2001) “Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 15, 491–541.
  • Schlitzer, G. (1995) “Testing the Stationarity of Economic Time Series: Further Monte Carlo Evidence”, Ricerche Economiche, 49,125-144.
  • Taamouti, A. (2015) “Stock Market’s Reaction to Money Supply: A Nonparametric Analysis”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 19(5), 669-689.
  • Tian, G. G., and Ma, S. (2010) “The Relationship Between Stock Returns and the Foreign Exchange Rate: The ARDL Approach”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 15(4), 490-508.
  • Thorbecke, W. (1997) “On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Finance, 52(2), 635–654.
  • Uğurlu-Yıldırım, E., Kocaarslan, B., and Ordu-Akkaya, B. M. (2021) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, and US Stock Market Performance: New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(2), 1724–1738.
  • Ülkü, N., and Demirci, E. (2012) “Joint Dynamics of Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets in Emerging Europe”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 22, 55–86.
  • Wen, F., Shui, A., Cheng, Y., and Gong, X. (2022) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in G7 and BRICS Countries: A Quantile-on-Quantile Approach”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 78, 457–482.
  • Wiedmann, M. (2011) “Springer Science & Business Media”.
  • Wong, H. T. (2017) “Real Exchange Rate Returns and Real Stock Price Returns”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 340–352.
  • Wu, C. F. J. (1986) “Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resampling Methods in Regression Analysis”, The Annals of Statistics, 14(4), 1261-1295.
  • You, W., Guo, Y., Zhu, H., and Tang, Y. (2017) “Oil Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Industry Stock Returns in China: Asymmetric Effects with Quantile Regression”, Energy Economics, 68, 1-18.
  • Yuan, D., Li, S., Li, R., and Zhang, F. (2022) “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Oil and Stock Markets in BRIC: Evidence from Quantiles Analysis”, Energy Economics, 110, 105972.
  • Oyadeyi, O. (2024) “Banking Innovation, Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in Nigeria”, Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15, 7014–7043. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S13132-023-01396-5

THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1, 139 - 159

Zaim Reha Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1621178

Öz

Uncertainties create asymmetric and variable effects in economic and financial decision-making processes. However, empirical findings on how these effects differ depending on market conditions remain to be limited. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the returns of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) index in a layered manner, using a quantile regression model, in the case of Türkiye. Empirical findings show that both economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty have a negative impact on returns during periods of poor market conditions.This result indicates that rising uncertainty increases the risk premium, triggers negative expectations in the market and worsens market conditions.On the other hand, when market returns tend to increase, the impact of uncertainties changes in a positive direction and increasing uncertainties have positive effects on returns. As a result, the findings provided by quantile regression reveal that the effects of uncertainty on financial markets are not static and homogeneous but variable.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Quantile Regression Stock Returns Uncertanities

Kaynakça

  • Abdalla, I. S. A., and Murinde, V. (1997) “Exchange Rate And Stock Price Interactions in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan, and Philippines”, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), 25–35.
  • Amano, R.A. and Norden, S. (1992) “Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof”, Working Paper No. 92-7, Bank Of Canada.
  • Ariff, M., Chung T. F., and Shamsher, M. (2012)M “oney Supply, Interest Rate, Liquidity and Share Prices: A Test of Their Linkage”, Global Finance Journal, 23, 202–220.
  • Bahloul, S., and Ben Amor, N. (2022) “A Quantile Regression Approach to Evaluate the Relative Impact of Global and Local Factors on the MENA Stock Markets”, International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17(10), 2763-2786.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J. (2016) “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636.
  • Belen, M., and Karamelikli, H. (2016) “Türkiye’de Hisse Senedi Getirileri ile Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Yaklaşımı”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 45(1), 34-42.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983) “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85.
  • Bernanke, B., and K. N. Kuttner. (2005). What Explains The Stock Market’s Reaction To Federal Reserve Policy?. The Journal Of Finance, 60(3), 1221–1257.
  • Boyacıoğlu, M. A., and Çürük, D. (2016). Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Hisse Senedi Getirisine Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, (70), 143-156.
  • Bloom, N. (2009) “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685.
  • Bloom, N., Kose, A. M., and Terrones, M. E. (2013) “Held Back by Uncertainty: Recoveries Are Slowed When Businesses and Consumers Are Unsure of the Future”, Finance & Development, 50, 38-41. Https://Www.Elibrary.İmf.Org/View/Journals/022/0050/001/Article-A012-En.Xml
  • Cai, Y. (2018) “Predictive Power of Us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shock on Stock Returns in Australia and New Zealand”, Australian Economic Papers, 57(4), 470–488.
  • Cassola, N., and C. Morana. (2004) “Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in the Euro Area”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 26(3), 387–399.
  • Chen, Y., Zhu, X., and Li, H. (2022) “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Uncertainty on Non-Ferrous Metal Market: Based on Quantile Regression”, Energy, 246, 123365.
  • Chiang, T. C. (2021) “Spillovers of U.S. Market Volatility and Monetary Policy Uncertainty to Global Stock Markets”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58.
  • Chulia, H., M. Martens, and D. V. Dijk. (2010) “Asymmetric Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities and Correlations”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(4), 834–839.
  • Dağlı, H., and Ayaydın, H. (2012) “Gelişen Piyasalarda Hisse Senedi Getirisini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Bir İnceleme: Panel Veri Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 45-65.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R. (1994) “Investment Under Uncertainty”, Princeton University Press. Https://Doi.Org/10.1515/9781400830176
  • Dornbush, R., and Fisher S. (1980) “Exchange Rates and the Current Account”, American Economic Review, 70, 960– 971. Enders, W. (2008) “Applied Econometric Time Series”, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Erilli, N., and Çamurlu, S. (2018) “Kantil Regresyon Analizinde Bootstrap Tahmini”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 35(2), 16-25.
  • Ewing, B. T., J. E. Payne, and S. M. Forbes. (1998) “Co-Movement of the Prime Rate, CD Rate, and The S&P Financial Stock Index”, Journal of Financial Research, 21(4), 469–482.
  • Ewing, B. T., S. M. Forbes, and J. E. Payne. (2003) “The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks on Sector-Specific Returns”, Applied Economics ,35(2), 201–207.
  • Fama, E. F. (1981) “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money”, The American Economic Review, 71(4): 545–565.
  • Ge, Z. (2023) “The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on China Stock Market: Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 89, 120-125.
  • Granger, C. W., and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (1995) “Basic Econometrics”, Third Edition, Singapore.
  • Heimonen, K.(2010) “Money and Equity Returns in the Euro Area”, Global Finance Journal, 21(2),152–169.
  • Jin, J. Y., Kanagaretnam, K. G., Liu, Y., and Lobo, G. J. (2018) “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and Bank Earnings Opacity”, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and Bank Earnings Opacity (January 6).
  • Kabir, S. H., Bashar, O. K., and Masih, A. M. M. (2014) “Is Domestic Stock Price Cointegrated with Exchange Rate and Foreign Stock Price? Evidence from Malaysia”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 285-302.
  • Kapusuzoğlu, A., and İbicioğlu, M. (2010) “Döviz Kuru ile Hisse Senedi Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Muhasebe Bilimi Dünyası, 12(4), 135-153.
  • Kartal, M. T., Ayhan, F., and Altaylar, M. (2023) “The Impacts of Financial and Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Stability in Emerging Countries: Evidence from Turkey’s Nonperforming Loans”, Journal of Risk, 25(3).
  • Kassouri, Y., and Altıntaş, H. (2020) “Threshold Cointegration, Nonlinearity, and Frequency Domain Causality Relationship Between Stock Price and Turkish Lira”, Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 1– 18.
  • Kaya, V., Çömlekçi, İ., and Kara, O. (2013) “Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Değişkenler 2002-2012 Türkiye Örneği”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı 35,167-176
  • Koenker, R., and Bassett Jr, G. (1978) “Regression Quantiles”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50.
  • Koenker, R. (2005) “Quantile Regression”, Cambridge University Press, USA.
  • Koenker, R., and Hallock, K.F. (2001) “Quantile Regression: An Introduction”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 143–156.
  • Kumar, N. P., and P. Padhi. (2012) “The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data”, Munich Personal Repec Archive MPRA Paper No. 38980, 1–24.
  • Kundu, S., and Paul, A. (2022) “Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Return and Volatility Under Heterogeneous Market Characteristics”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 80, 597-612.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y. (1992) “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Kwon, C. S., and T. S. Shin. (1999) “Cointegration and Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal ,10(1), 71–81.
  • Maskay, B. (2007) “Analyzing the Effect of Change in Money Supply on Stock Prices”, The Park Place Economist, 15(1), 72-79.
  • Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Reboredo, J. C., and Nguyen, D. K. (2014) “Do Global Factors Impact BRICS Stock Markets? A Quantile Regression”, Approach. Emerging Markets Review, 19, 1-17.
  • Nusair, S. A., and Al-Khasawneh, J. A. (2023) “Changes in Oil Price and Economic Policy Uncertainty and the G7 Stock Returns: Evidence from Asymmetric Quantile Regression Analysis”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56(3), 1849-1893.
  • Obben, J., Pech, A., and Shakur, S. (2006) “Analysis of the Relationship Between the Share Market Performance and Exchange Rates in New Zealand: A Cointegrating VAR Approach”, New Zealand Economic Papers, 40(2), 147- 180.
  • Paule-Vianez, J., Gómez-Martínez, R.,and Prado-Román, C. (2020a) “Effect of Economic and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Stock Markets. Evidence on Return, Volatility and Liquidity”, Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1261–1271.
  • Paule-Vianez, J., Prado-Román, C., and Gómez-Martínez, R. (2020b) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns: Influence of Limits to Arbitrage and the Economic Cycle”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 37(4), 777–798.
  • Pearce, D. K., and Roley, V. V. (1984) “Stock Prices and Economic News (No. W1296)”, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika,75, 335-346. Ratanapakorn, O., and S. C. Sharma. (2007) “Dynamic Analysis Between The US Stock Returns and the Macroeconomic Variables”, Applied Financial Economics, 17(5), 369–377.
  • Sellin, P. (2001) “Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 15, 491–541.
  • Schlitzer, G. (1995) “Testing the Stationarity of Economic Time Series: Further Monte Carlo Evidence”, Ricerche Economiche, 49,125-144.
  • Taamouti, A. (2015) “Stock Market’s Reaction to Money Supply: A Nonparametric Analysis”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 19(5), 669-689.
  • Tian, G. G., and Ma, S. (2010) “The Relationship Between Stock Returns and the Foreign Exchange Rate: The ARDL Approach”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 15(4), 490-508.
  • Thorbecke, W. (1997) “On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Finance, 52(2), 635–654.
  • Uğurlu-Yıldırım, E., Kocaarslan, B., and Ordu-Akkaya, B. M. (2021) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, and US Stock Market Performance: New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(2), 1724–1738.
  • Ülkü, N., and Demirci, E. (2012) “Joint Dynamics of Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets in Emerging Europe”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 22, 55–86.
  • Wen, F., Shui, A., Cheng, Y., and Gong, X. (2022) “Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in G7 and BRICS Countries: A Quantile-on-Quantile Approach”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 78, 457–482.
  • Wiedmann, M. (2011) “Springer Science & Business Media”.
  • Wong, H. T. (2017) “Real Exchange Rate Returns and Real Stock Price Returns”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 340–352.
  • Wu, C. F. J. (1986) “Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resampling Methods in Regression Analysis”, The Annals of Statistics, 14(4), 1261-1295.
  • You, W., Guo, Y., Zhu, H., and Tang, Y. (2017) “Oil Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Industry Stock Returns in China: Asymmetric Effects with Quantile Regression”, Energy Economics, 68, 1-18.
  • Yuan, D., Li, S., Li, R., and Zhang, F. (2022) “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Oil and Stock Markets in BRIC: Evidence from Quantiles Analysis”, Energy Economics, 110, 105972.
  • Oyadeyi, O. (2024) “Banking Innovation, Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in Nigeria”, Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15, 7014–7043. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S13132-023-01396-5
Toplam 64 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Finans ve Yatırım (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Zaim Reha Yaşar 0000-0001-7466-6137

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 24 Mart 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Ocak 2025
Kabul Tarihi 18 Şubat 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Yaşar, Z. R. (2025). THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 23(1), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1621178
AMA Yaşar ZR. THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. Mart 2025;23(1):139-159. doi:10.11611/yead.1621178
Chicago Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23, sy. 1 (Mart 2025): 139-59. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1621178.
EndNote Yaşar ZR (01 Mart 2025) THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23 1 139–159.
IEEE Z. R. Yaşar, “THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 1, ss. 139–159, 2025, doi: 10.11611/yead.1621178.
ISNAD Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23/1 (Mart 2025), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1621178.
JAMA Yaşar ZR. THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;23:139–159.
MLA Yaşar, Zaim Reha. “THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 1, 2025, ss. 139-5, doi:10.11611/yead.1621178.
Vancouver Yaşar ZR. THE EFFECT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF MONETARY AND ECONOMY POLICIES ON STOCK MARKETS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;23(1):139-5.