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TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 122 - 143, 15.10.2025

Hasan Azazi , Müşerref Arık , Melike Buse Akcan , Yasemın Tellı Ucler

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1638130

Öz

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between economic confidence and sectoral turnover increases in Turkey. The sectors to be analysed in the study are industry, construction, trade and service sectors and the relationship between sectoral turnovers and economic confidence will be evaluated for the period 2009:01-2023:05. In the study, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and Fourier Granger Causality Test were applied. When the causality test results are analysed, it is seen that the relationship between variables differs on sector basis. In this context, while there is no causality relationship between the turnover of the construction sector and economic confidence, there is a relationship with the turnover of other sectors. The outputs obtained in this context will serve as a source for analysing which sector-specific policy arrangements should be made to increase economic confidence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic confidence Sectoral turnovers Fourier analyses Granger causality test.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, D. A. (2019) "The Effects of Political Stability on Economic Growth of The Presidental Government System", Internatıonal Journal of Economıcs and Polıtıcs Scıences Academıc Researches, 3(9): 18-31.
  • Ahmed, D., Xie, Y., and Issam, K. (2021) "Investor Confidence and Life Insurance Demand: Can Economic Condition Limit Life Insurance Business?", International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(7): 1537-1564.
  • Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1998) "Improving Macro-Economic Forecasts: The Role of Consumer Confidence", International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1): 71-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00052-6
  • Borisov, L. (2022) "Consumer Confidence and Real Economic Growth in the Eurozone", Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 8(3): 7-13. https://ideas.repec.org//a/bal/journl/2256-07422017832.html
  • Bovi, M. (2009) "Economic Versus Psychological Forecasting. Evidence From Consumer Confidence Surveys", Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(4): 563-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2009.04.001
  • Bugarin, M. and Hazama, Y. (2014) "Consumer Economic Confidence and Preference for Redistribution: Main Equilibrium Results", Economics Bulletin, 34(3): 2002-2009.
  • Choudhry, T. and Wohar, M. (2023) "What Drives US Consumer Confidence? The Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29: 4268-4285. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2877
  • Chu, A. C. (2007) "Confidence-Enhanced Economic Growth", The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1495
  • Claveria, O. (2020) "Evolution of Business and Consumer Uncertainty in The Midst of The Covid-19 Pandemic A Sector Analysis In 32 European Countries", SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3688033
  • Claveria, O., Monte, E., and Torra, S. (2020) "Economic Forecasting with Evolved Confidence Indicators", Economic Modelling, 93: 576-585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.09.015
  • Dajčman, S. (2020) "Economic Policy and Confidence of Economic Agents – A Causal Relationship?", Review of Economic Perspectives, 20(4): 471-484. https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2020-0023
  • Demirel, S. and Artan, S. (2017) "The Causality Relationships Between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries", International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7: 417-424.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981) "Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root", Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Enders, W. and Paul, J. (2016) "Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4): 399-419.
  • Filippin, A. and Paccagnella, M. (2012) "Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes", Economics of Education Review, 31(5): 824-834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.06.002
  • Gholipour, H. F., Tajaddini, R., and Farzanegan, M. R. (2023) "Governments’ Economic Support for Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic And Consumer Confidence", Empirical Economics, 65(3): 1253-1272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02367-0
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1912791.pdf
  • Guo, Y. and He, S. (2020) "Does Confidence Matter for Economic Growth? An Analysis from the Perspective of Policy Effectiveness", International Review of Economics and Finance, 69: 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.012
  • Ha, J. and So, I. (2023) "Global Confidence, Uncertainty, and Business Cycles", International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1): 451-495
  • Hanke, S. H. (2008) "Economic Freedom, Confidence and Growth". Içinde W. Bieńkowski, J. C. Brada, and M.-J. Radło (Ed.), Growth versus Security: Old and New EU Members’ Quest for a New Economic and Social Model (ss. 200-207). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230228238_9
  • Hutcheson, J. M. (1994) "Forecasting the Building Industry's Prospects Beyond 2000", Property Management, 12(1): 5-15. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637479410052271
  • Kilci, E. N. (2020) "Do Confidence Indicators Have an Impact on Macro-Financial Indicators? An Analysis of the Financial Service and Real Sector Confidence Indexes: Evidence from Turkey", European Journal of Government and Economics, 9(1): 74-94. https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2020.9.1.5948
  • Kilic, E. and Cankaya, S. (2016) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Activity: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach", Applied Economics, 48(32): 3062-3080. https://doi.org/0.1080/00036846.2015.1133902
  • Koç, E., Şenel, M. C., and Kaya, K. (2018) "Türkiye’de Sanayi Sektörünün Genel Durumu-Sanayi Ciro Endeksi", Mühendis ve Makina, 59(692): 17-34.
  • Kuzenbayev, N. and Pelizzo, R. (2023) "Political Stability, Confidence in the Future, and Values", Social Sciences, 12(2): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12020082
  • Lam, K.-C. (2002) "Interaction Between Economic and Political Factors in the Migration Decision", Journal of Comparative Economics, 30(3): 488-504. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2002.1783
  • Matsusaka, J. G. and Sbordone, A. M. (1995) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations", Economic Inquiry, 33(2): 296-318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01864.x Montes, G. C. and Nogueira, F. da S. L. (2021) "Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Political Uncertainty on Business Confidence and Investment", Journal of Economic Studies, 49(4): 577-602. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2020-0582 Nadenichek, J. (2007). "Consumer Confidence and Economic Stagnation in Japan", Japan and the World Economy, 19: 338-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.05.005
  • Pirinsky, C. (2013) "Confidence and Economic Attitudes", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 91: 139-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.04.013
  • Vadas, G. (2001) "Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary", MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2001/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Vaillant, N. and Flambard, V. (2015) "Economic Conditions and Confidence: Do Changes in the Consumption Level Affect The Dynamics of Confidence?", Economics Bulletin, 35(1): 21-29.
  • Van Suntum, U. (2009) "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0" (Working Paper No. 24). CAWM Discussion Paper. 1-25. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/51272

CİROLAR İLE EKONOMİK GÜVEN DEĞİŞKENLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN FRAKSİYONEL FREKANSLI FOURIER ADF VE GRANGER NEDENSELLİK TESTİ İLE TEST EDİLMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ 2009:01-2023:05

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3, 122 - 143, 15.10.2025

Hasan Azazi , Müşerref Arık , Melike Buse Akcan , Yasemın Tellı Ucler

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1638130

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de ekonomik güven ile sektörel ciro artışları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada analiz edilecek sektörler sanayi, inşaat, ticaret ve hizmet sektörleri olup, sektörel cirolar ile ekonomik güven arasındaki ilişki 2009:01-2023:05 dönemi için değerlendirilecektir. Çalışmada Augmented Dickey Fuller Birim Kök Testi ve Fourier Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçları incelendiğinde değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin sektör bazında farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Bu kapsamda inşaat sektörü cirosu ile ekonomik güven arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmazken, diğer sektörlerin ciroları ile ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bu kapsamda elde edilen çıktılar, ekonomik güvenin artırılması için hangi sektöre özgü politika düzenlemelerinin yapılması gerektiğinin analiz edilmesine kaynak teşkil edecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik güven Sektörel cirolar Fourier analizleri Granger nedensellik testi.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, D. A. (2019) "The Effects of Political Stability on Economic Growth of The Presidental Government System", Internatıonal Journal of Economıcs and Polıtıcs Scıences Academıc Researches, 3(9): 18-31.
  • Ahmed, D., Xie, Y., and Issam, K. (2021) "Investor Confidence and Life Insurance Demand: Can Economic Condition Limit Life Insurance Business?", International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(7): 1537-1564.
  • Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1998) "Improving Macro-Economic Forecasts: The Role of Consumer Confidence", International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1): 71-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00052-6
  • Borisov, L. (2022) "Consumer Confidence and Real Economic Growth in the Eurozone", Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 8(3): 7-13. https://ideas.repec.org//a/bal/journl/2256-07422017832.html
  • Bovi, M. (2009) "Economic Versus Psychological Forecasting. Evidence From Consumer Confidence Surveys", Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(4): 563-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2009.04.001
  • Bugarin, M. and Hazama, Y. (2014) "Consumer Economic Confidence and Preference for Redistribution: Main Equilibrium Results", Economics Bulletin, 34(3): 2002-2009.
  • Choudhry, T. and Wohar, M. (2023) "What Drives US Consumer Confidence? The Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29: 4268-4285. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2877
  • Chu, A. C. (2007) "Confidence-Enhanced Economic Growth", The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1): 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1495
  • Claveria, O. (2020) "Evolution of Business and Consumer Uncertainty in The Midst of The Covid-19 Pandemic A Sector Analysis In 32 European Countries", SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3688033
  • Claveria, O., Monte, E., and Torra, S. (2020) "Economic Forecasting with Evolved Confidence Indicators", Economic Modelling, 93: 576-585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.09.015
  • Dajčman, S. (2020) "Economic Policy and Confidence of Economic Agents – A Causal Relationship?", Review of Economic Perspectives, 20(4): 471-484. https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2020-0023
  • Demirel, S. and Artan, S. (2017) "The Causality Relationships Between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries", International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7: 417-424.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981) "Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root", Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Enders, W. and Paul, J. (2016) "Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR", Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20(4): 399-419.
  • Filippin, A. and Paccagnella, M. (2012) "Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes", Economics of Education Review, 31(5): 824-834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.06.002
  • Gholipour, H. F., Tajaddini, R., and Farzanegan, M. R. (2023) "Governments’ Economic Support for Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic And Consumer Confidence", Empirical Economics, 65(3): 1253-1272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02367-0
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1912791.pdf
  • Guo, Y. and He, S. (2020) "Does Confidence Matter for Economic Growth? An Analysis from the Perspective of Policy Effectiveness", International Review of Economics and Finance, 69: 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.012
  • Ha, J. and So, I. (2023) "Global Confidence, Uncertainty, and Business Cycles", International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1): 451-495
  • Hanke, S. H. (2008) "Economic Freedom, Confidence and Growth". Içinde W. Bieńkowski, J. C. Brada, and M.-J. Radło (Ed.), Growth versus Security: Old and New EU Members’ Quest for a New Economic and Social Model (ss. 200-207). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230228238_9
  • Hutcheson, J. M. (1994) "Forecasting the Building Industry's Prospects Beyond 2000", Property Management, 12(1): 5-15. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637479410052271
  • Kilci, E. N. (2020) "Do Confidence Indicators Have an Impact on Macro-Financial Indicators? An Analysis of the Financial Service and Real Sector Confidence Indexes: Evidence from Turkey", European Journal of Government and Economics, 9(1): 74-94. https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2020.9.1.5948
  • Kilic, E. and Cankaya, S. (2016) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Activity: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach", Applied Economics, 48(32): 3062-3080. https://doi.org/0.1080/00036846.2015.1133902
  • Koç, E., Şenel, M. C., and Kaya, K. (2018) "Türkiye’de Sanayi Sektörünün Genel Durumu-Sanayi Ciro Endeksi", Mühendis ve Makina, 59(692): 17-34.
  • Kuzenbayev, N. and Pelizzo, R. (2023) "Political Stability, Confidence in the Future, and Values", Social Sciences, 12(2): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12020082
  • Lam, K.-C. (2002) "Interaction Between Economic and Political Factors in the Migration Decision", Journal of Comparative Economics, 30(3): 488-504. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2002.1783
  • Matsusaka, J. G. and Sbordone, A. M. (1995) "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations", Economic Inquiry, 33(2): 296-318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01864.x Montes, G. C. and Nogueira, F. da S. L. (2021) "Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Political Uncertainty on Business Confidence and Investment", Journal of Economic Studies, 49(4): 577-602. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2020-0582 Nadenichek, J. (2007). "Consumer Confidence and Economic Stagnation in Japan", Japan and the World Economy, 19: 338-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.05.005
  • Pirinsky, C. (2013) "Confidence and Economic Attitudes", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 91: 139-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.04.013
  • Vadas, G. (2001) "Beyond Macro Variables: Consumer Confidence Index and Household Expenditure in Hungary", MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2001/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Vaillant, N. and Flambard, V. (2015) "Economic Conditions and Confidence: Do Changes in the Consumption Level Affect The Dynamics of Confidence?", Economics Bulletin, 35(1): 21-29.
  • Van Suntum, U. (2009) "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0" (Working Paper No. 24). CAWM Discussion Paper. 1-25. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/51272
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer), Finans
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Hasan Azazi 0000-0003-4241-9857

Müşerref Arık 0000-0002-5334-8743

Melike Buse Akcan 0000-0001-5101-1613

Yasemın Tellı Ucler 0000-0002-7695-2003

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 15 Ekim 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Ekim 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 11 Şubat 2025
Kabul Tarihi 6 Temmuz 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Azazi, H., Arık, M., Akcan, M. B., Tellı Ucler, Y. (2025). TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 23(3), 122-143. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1638130
AMA Azazi H, Arık M, Akcan MB, Tellı Ucler Y. TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. Ekim 2025;23(3):122-143. doi:10.11611/yead.1638130
Chicago Azazi, Hasan, Müşerref Arık, Melike Buse Akcan, ve Yasemın Tellı Ucler. “TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23, sy. 3 (Ekim 2025): 122-43. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1638130.
EndNote Azazi H, Arık M, Akcan MB, Tellı Ucler Y (01 Ekim 2025) TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23 3 122–143.
IEEE H. Azazi, M. Arık, M. B. Akcan, ve Y. Tellı Ucler, “TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 3, ss. 122–143, 2025, doi: 10.11611/yead.1638130.
ISNAD Azazi, Hasan vd. “TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 23/3 (Ekim2025), 122-143. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1638130.
JAMA Azazi H, Arık M, Akcan MB, Tellı Ucler Y. TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;23:122–143.
MLA Azazi, Hasan vd. “TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 3, 2025, ss. 122-43, doi:10.11611/yead.1638130.
Vancouver Azazi H, Arık M, Akcan MB, Tellı Ucler Y. TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURNOVERS AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE VARIABLES WITH FRACTIONAL FREQUENCY FOURIER ADF AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST: THE CASE OF TURKIYE 2009:01-2023:05. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;23(3):122-43.