Dutch Disease: The Case of Indonesia-Palm Oil

Öz

Palm oil emerges as an important raw material needed in many fields from food to chemical industry and energy sector. Indonesia is the largest palm oil producer in the world and has great potential to market this domestically and internationally. With a huge production capacity, the inability to effectively use income obtained from export of this product may have an adverse effect on the economic growth rate. This issue is called the Dutch Disease in literature. In this study, it is proposed that the validity of the Dutch Disease needs to be investigated asymmetrically in Indonesia during the period of 2000:Q1-2021:Q4. Using “The Nonlinear Lag Distributed Autoregressive Model” (NARDL) suggested by Shin et al. (2014), it is found that the positive shocks to palm oil price have a positive impact on real effective exchange rate. The findings indicate that the Dutch Disease hypothesis is valid in Indonesia. In this context, the income increase in Indonesia, leading to the diversification of goods by transferring more resources especially to the high-tech manufacturing industry, and the strengthening of the institutional structure, thus ensuring better management of resources, and transferring more resources to education and science will provide a solution to the Dutch Disease experienced in this country. Key Words: Indonesia, Dutch Disease, Palm Oil, Real Efective Exchange Rate, JEL Classification: E01, E61

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Indonesia
• Dutch Disease
• Palm Oil
• Real Efective
• Exchange Rate

Hollanda Hastalığı: Endonezya-Palm Yağı Örneği

Öz

Palm yağı, gıdadan, kimya sanayi ve enerji sektörüne kadar birçok alanda ihtiyaç duyulan önemli bir hammadde olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Endonezya, dünyadaki en büyük palm yağı üreticisidir ve bu ürünü yurtiçinde ve yurtdışında pazarlamak için büyük bir potansiyele sahiptir. Geniş bir üretim kapasitesi ile birlikte, bu ürünün ihracatından kazanılan gelirin etkin bir şekilde kullanılamaması ekonomik büyüme oranı üzerinde olumsuz etki yaratabilmektedir. Bu husus literatürde Hollanda Hastalığı olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 2000:Q1-2021:Q4 dönemi için Endonezya’da Hollanda Hastalığı’nın geçerliliğini asimetrik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Shin vd. (2014) tarafından önerilen doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresyon modelinin (NARDL) kullanıldığı çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, uzun dönemde palm yağı fiyatlarındaki pozitif şokların reel efektif döviz kuru üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Endonezya ekonomisinde Hollanda Hastalığı’nın geçerli olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Bu bağlamda Endonezya’da ortaya çıkan gelir artışından özellikle yüksek teknolojiye sahip imalat sanayine daha fazla kaynak aktarımı sağlanarak mal çeşitlendirilmesine gidilmesi, kurumsal yapının güçlendirilmesi böylece kaynakların daha iyi yönetilmesinin sağlanması, eğitim ve bilime daha fazla kaynak aktarılması bu ülkede yaşanan Hollanda Hastalığı’nın çözümünü sağlayacaktır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Endonezya, Hollanda Hastalığı, Palm Yağı, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, JEL Sınıflandırması: E01, E61

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hollanda Hastalığı
• Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru
• Endonezya
• Palm Yağı

Kaynakça

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