BRICS+T Ülkelerinde Finansal Gelişme ve Askeri Harcamaların GSYİH Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Askeri harcamalar, bir ülkenin savunma politikalarının temelini oluşturarak uluslararası arenada hayati bir rol oynamaktadır. Askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki ilk kez Benoit (1973, 1978) tarafından incelenmiş ve bu ilişki literatüre "Benoit hipotezi" olarak geçmiştir. Bu çalışmada askeri harcamalar ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Benoit hipotezi kapsamında BRICS+T (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye) ülkeleri için 1992-2021 yıllık veri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Değişkenlerin durağanlıkları, ADF ve Esnek Fourier ADF birim kök testleri kullanılarak incelenmiş ve ardından Fourier Bootstrap ARDL ve Bayer-Hanck yöntemleriyle değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. FB-ARDL yöntemi, eş-bütünleşme ilişkisini sadece Türkiye'de bulurken, Bayer-Hanck eş-bütünleşme testi tüm ülkelerde eş-bütünleşme ilişkisi tespit etmiştir. FB-ARDL uzun dönem tahmin sonucuna göre Türkiye`de finansal gelişme ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif, askeri harcamalar ise negatif etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye`de Benoit hipotezi geçersizdir. BRICS ülkeleri için FMOLS uzun dönem tahmin sonuçları şu şekildedir; A) Brezilya ve Güney Afrika hariç tüm ülkelerde finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve anlamlıdır. B) Rusya ve Çin'de askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. C) Brezilya, Hindistan ve Güney Afrika`da askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilediği görülmüştür (Benoit hipotezi geçersizdir). Son olarak, çalışmada tüm ülkeler için değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Fourier Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle araştırılmış ve sonuçlar çalışmanın son bölümünde raporlanmıştır. Çıkan ekonometrik sonuçlara dayanarak, farklı politika önerileriyle çalışma sonlandırılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Benoit Hipotezi, Fourier Bootstrap ARDL, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Fourier ADF, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto JEL Sınıflandırılması: P24, O16, H56, C32, C51

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Benoit Hipotezi
• Fourier Bootstrap ARDL
• Finansal Gelişme
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Fourier ADF
• Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

The Impact of Financıal Development and Military Expenditures on GDP in BRICS+T Countries: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach

Öz

Military expenditure plays an important role in the international arena as it forms the basis of a country's defence policy. The relationship between military expenditures and economic growth was first examined by Benoit (1973, 1978) and this relationship was mentioned in the literature as the "Benoit hypothesis". In this study, the effect of military expenditures and financial development on economic growth was investigated using 1992-2021 annual data for BRICS + T (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Türkiye) countries within the scope of the Benoit hypothesis. The stationarity of the variables was examined using ADF and Flexible Fourier ADF unit root tests, and then the cointegration relationship between the variables was investigated with Fourier Bootstrap ARDL and Bayer-Hanck methods. While the FB-ARDL method found a cointegration relationship only in Türkiye, the Bayer-Hanck cointegration test detected a cointegration relationship in all countries. According to the FB-ARDL long-run estimation result, financial development in Türkiye affects economic growth positively and military expenditures negatively. Therefore, the Benoit hypothesis is invalid in Türkiye. FMOLS long-run estimation results for BRICS countries are as follows; A) The effect of financial development on economic growth is positive and significant in all countries except Brazil and South Africa. B) Military expenditures do not have a statistically significant effect on economic growth in Russia and China. C) It has been observed that military expenditures negatively affect economic growth in Brazil, India, and South Africa (Benoit hypothesis is invalid). Finally, the causality relationship between the variables for all countries in the study was investigated with the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto method and the results were reported in the last section of the study. Based on the econometric results, the study was concluded with different policy recommendations. Key Words: Benoit Hypothesis, Fourier Bootstrap ARDL, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Fourier ADF, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto JEL Classification: P24, O16, H56, C32, C51

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Benoit Hypothesis
• Fourier Bootstrap ARDL
• Financial Development
• Economic Growth
• Fourier ADF
• Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

Kaynakça

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