The Effect of Inflation on Household Expenditures

Öz

The study focuses on the effect of household expenditures on the general level of prices. For this purpose, the rate of household consumption expenditures in GDP and the personal loans (housing, vehicles, credit cards, etc.) provided by public and private banks in Türkiye, especially in the period between 2004 and 2022, were preferred as data because it is an important factor that two variables are directly related as measurement indicators of household expenditures. The effect of price increases on household expenditures was examined using Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) symmetric and Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric tests. The findings indicate that there is no symmetric causal relationship between inflation rates and both personal loans and household consumption expenditures. Another finding of the study is that positive shocks in personal loans are effective in negative shocks to inflation, while positive shocks in household consumption expenditures are effective in both negative and positive shocks to inflation. Key Words: Inflation, Household Expenditures, Personal Loans, Household Consumption JEL Classification: E1, E21, E31, E51

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ınflation
• Household Expenditures
• personal loans
• Household Consumption

Enflasyonun Hanehalkı Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Çalışma hanehalkı harcamalarının fiyatlar genel seviyesini üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmıştır. Bu amaç güdüsüyle özellikle 2004 ve 2022 yılları arasındaki süreçte GSYH içindeki hanehalkı tüketim harcamaları oranı ve Türkiye’de kamu ve özel bankaları tarafından kullandırılan bireysel krediler (konut, taşıt, kredi kartı vd.) veri olarak tercih edilmiştir çünkü hanehalkı harcamalarının ölçüm göstergesi olarak iki değişkenin doğrudan ilgili olması önemli bir faktördür. Fiyat artışlarının tüketici harcamalarına olan etkisi Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) simetrik ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgularda, enflasyon oranları ile hem bireysel krediler hem de hanehalkı tüketim harcamaları arasında simetrik bir nedensel ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Araştırmada elde edilen diğer bir bulgu ise bireysel kredilerdeki pozitif şoklar enflasyonun negatif şokunda etki ederken, hanehalkı tüketim harcamalarında yaşanan pozitif şoklar, enflasyonun hem negatif hem de pozitif şoklarında etkili olmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enflasyon, Hanehalkı Harcamaları, Bireysel Krediler, Hanehalkı Tüketimi JEL Sınıflandırması: E1, E21, E31, E51

Anahtar Kelimeler

• enflasyon
• hanehalkı harcamaları
• bireysel krediler
• hanehalkı tüketimi

Kaynakça

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