Türkiye’de Politik İş Çevrimleri: Mali Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Politik iş çevrimi araştırmaları yalın iş çevrimi araştırmalarına alternatif olarak doğmuştur. Politik iş çevrimleri alanındaki araştırmalar seçmenlerin seçim dönemlerinde manipüle edilip, edilmediği üzerine yoğunlaşmaktadır. Ayrıca, politikacıların tekrar seçilmek için kullandıkları metodlar açığa çıkarılmaktadır. Bu makalede, Türkiye’de fırsatçı politik iş çevrimlerinin olup, olmadığına cevap aranmaya çalışılmıştır. Araştırmamız Türkiye’deki durumu belirlemek için mali politikalara odaklanmıştır. Politik iş çevrimleri ve mali değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri keşfetmek için ARMA bağlamında basit ama güçlü zaman serisi modelleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar Türkiye’de mükemmele yakın politik iş çevrimlerinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Politik iş çevrimleri; Zaman serisi analizi; Türkiye Politik Ekonomisi

Türkiye’de Politik İş Çevrimleri: Mali Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Political business cycle studies have arisen as alternatives to pure business cycle studies. The studies in the political business cycle area mainly try to answer the question that whether the voters are manipulated in election periods or not. Also, the methods which the politicians use to be re-elected are uncovered. In this paper, we ask the question whether there are opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey or not. Our study focuses on the fiscal policies to discover the Turkish case. We use simple but powerful time series models in ARMA context to discover the relationships between political business cycles and fiscal variables. Empirical results show that there are quite perfect opportunistic political business cycles in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Political business cycles; Time series analysis; Turkish political economy

Kaynakça

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