Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri

Öz

Economic literature generally contains growth models dominated by classical/neo-classical approach. These models focused on the differences in the growth rates among countries in terms of supply of factors of production. Wheras capital accumulation and technical progress are viewed as the main determinant of the growth, increase in per-capita income is only determined by supply-side factors. Should the economy is in the position of under-employment and under-capacity, then these approaches are not capable of satisfactory explanation for the economic growth. Assumptions of supply-side approach are endogenous regarding the economic system and restricted by the demand. In an open economy, growth can be defined as a component of a Keynesian demand-oriented economic system and it is genarally called as Post-Keynesian growth models. These models have been developed on two main axes: “Export-led growth model”, introduced by N. Kaldor and “balance-of-payment constrainedgrowth model”introduced by A.P.Thirwall in 1979. Export-led growth model is based on the assumption that internally determined productivity increases generate a virtous circle economy. Balance-of-payment constrained growth model, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that foreign trade deficit cannot continue forever and that long-run growth rate is a function of the export and elasticity of demand for import of the country. The objective of this paper is to discuss and critisize export-led growth and balance-of-payment constrained growth model.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Demand oriented growth model, Export-Led growth, Balance of payment constraint

Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri

Öz

İktisat yazını genellikle klasik/neoklasik görüşün egemen olduğu büyüme modellerini yansıtmaktadır. Bu modeller, ülkelerarası büyüme oranı farklılıklarını mevcut iktisadi kaynaklar ve faktör arzı ile açıklamaktadır. Sermaye birikimi ve teknik ilerleme büyümenin ana belirleyicisi olarak görülürken, kişi başına düşen gelirin artması sadece arz yanlı faktörler tarafından belirlenmektedir. Fakat gerçekte ekonomi eksik istihdam ve eksik kapasite kullanımında çalışıyor ise, bu yaklaşımların ekonomik büyüme için yeterli bir açıklama gücüne sahip oldukları çok tartışmalı hale gelir. Arz yanlı yaklaşımın varsayımları iktisadi sisteme içseldir ve talep tarafından sınırlanmaktadır. Açık bir ekonomide talep yönelimli büyüme Keynesyen talep yönelimli makroekonomik sistemin uzantısı olarak açıklanabilir ve Post-Keynesyen Büyüme Modelleri olarak anılır. Bu modeller temelde N. Kaldor tarafından teorize edilen, ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli (İDBM) ve A.P. Thirlwall tarafından 1979 yılında ortaya atılan, ödemeler bilançosu kısıtı altında büyüme (ÖBKAB) modelleri olarak iki eksende gelişmektedir. Bunlardan İDBM, içsel olarak belirlenen verimlilik artışlarının etkisiyle kendi kendini besleyen (virtuous circle), kümülatif nedenselliğe dayalı bir büyüme modeli ileri sürerken, ÖBKAB; bir ülkenin dış ticaret açığının sonsuza dek sürdürülemeyeceği ve bu ekonominin uzun dönemli büyüme oranının yine bu ülkeye ait ihracatın ve ithalat talep esnekliğinin bir sonucu olarak belirleneceği varsayımına dayalı bir model ileri sürmektedir. Amacımız talep yönelimli bu gelişmeleri İDBM ve ÖBKAB çerçevesinde incelemek ve tartışmaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Talep yönelimli büyüme, İhracata dayalı büyüme modeli, Ödemeler bilançosu kısıtı

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