Public Expenditure on Human Capital Investment and GDP Nexus: Empirical Evidence Based on NARDL Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 3, 407 - 424, 25.09.2025

Ali Balkı

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1710880

Öz

Understanding public expenditures on human capital investment and GDP linkages is critical for countries' future. Within the scope of the reviewed literature, no study analyzes the asymmetric effects of public expenditures on human capital investments on Türkiye's GDP. Since there is no linear relationship according to the A-ARDL model using quarterly data for the period 2004-2019, the following results were documented in the analysis based on the NARDL model: (i.) Human capital investments are asymmetrically cointegrated with GDP but not linear. (ii.) A nonlinear linkage exists among GDP and social protection and health expenditure. Raises in health expenditures increase GDP more than decreases. However, there is a linear linkage between GDP and education expenditures. These findings are empirical evidence that education and health expenditures create positive externalities. (iii.) While both Keynes' hypothesis and Wagner's law are valid for health expenditures and social protection expenditures, only Wagner's law is valid for education expenditures. As a result, Türkiye, an emerging country that is not rich in natural resources, should give more importance to the efficiency of resources without ignoring the social state functions to increase its level of development.
Key Words: Public expenditure, Human capital investment, NARDL, Keynes' hypothesis, Wagner's law
JEL Classification: C32, H50, O15

Anahtar Kelimeler

Public expenditure , Human capital investment , NARDL , Keynes , Wagner

Etik Beyan

Çalışma etik kurul izni gerektirmemektedir.

Destekleyen Kurum

yok

Proje Numarası

yok

Teşekkür

yok

Beşerî Sermaye Yatırımına Yönelik Kamu Harcamaları ve GSYİH İlişkisi: NARDL Yaklaşımına Dayalı Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

Beşerî sermaye yatırımlarına yönelik kamu harcamalarını ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişkileri anlamak ülkelerin geleceği açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. İncelenen literatür kapsamında, beşerî sermaye yatırımlarına yönelik kamu harcamalarının Türkiye’nin GSYİH’si üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini analiz eden herhangi bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. 2004-2019 dönemi için üç aylık veriler kullanılarak A-ARDL modeline göre doğrusal bir ilişki olmadığından NARDL modeline dayalı analizde aşağıdaki sonuçlar belgelenmiştir: (i.) Beşerî sermaye yatırımları GSYİH ile asimetrik olarak eş bütünleşiktir ancak doğrusal değildir. (ii.) GSYİH ile sosyal koruma harcamaları ve sağlık harcamaları arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki vardır. Sağlık harcamalarındaki artışların GSYİH üzerindeki artırıcı etkisi azaltıcı etkisinden daha büyüktür. Ancak, GSYİH ile eğitim harcamaları arasında doğrusal bir ilişki vardır. Bu bulgular, eğitim ve sağlık harcamalarının pozitif dışsallık oluşturduğuna dair ampirik kanıtlardır. (iii.) Hem Wagner kanunu hem de Keynesyen hipotez sağlık harcamaları ve sosyal koruma harcamaları için geçerli olsa da eğitim harcamaları için yalnızca Wagner kanunu geçerlidir. Sonuç olarak doğal kaynaklar açısından zengin olmayan, gelişmekte olan bir ülke olan Türkiye'nin, gelişmişlik düzeyini artırmak için sosyal devlet fonksiyonlarını göz ardı etmeden kaynakların verimliliğine daha fazla önem vermesi gerekmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Kamu harcaması, Beşerî sermaye yatırımı, NARDL, Keynesyen hipotez, Wagner kanunu
JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, H50, O15

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kamu harcaması , Beşerî sermaye yatırımı , NARDL , Keynesyen hipotez , Wagner kanunu

Proje Numarası

yok

Kaynakça

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