TTIP Projesi ile Beklenen Tarife Değişimlerinin Türkiye Demir Çelik İhracatı Açısından Anlamı ve Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Son yıllarda AB ve ABD arasında tartışılagelen TTIP projesi, dünya çapında mevcut iktisadi dengeleri değiştirme potansiyeli taşıyan önemli bir projedir. TTIP sürecinin ilerleyen dönemlerinde Türkiye’nin sürece dahil olma yada olmama durumu ile ilgili farklı senaryolar altında endüstriyel ön inceleme ve analizlerin yapılması, gelecekteki gelişmelere hazırlıklı olunabilmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışma ile TTIP projesi neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde istihdam, uluslararası ticaret hacmi, diğer endüstrilerle güçlü bağları, milli gelire katkısı açısından dikkate değer olarak düşünülen demir çelik endüstrisi ihracatındaki olası etkiler değerlendirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Türkiye’nin TTIP projesine taraf olması özellikle ABD ile karşılıklı tarifelerin giderilmesi neticesinde ihracat açısından artış sağlayabilecektir. Bu çalışmada, ticaret akışlarının modellenmesinde çekim modelinden faydalanılmış, dışsal değişken olarak TTIP projesinin ilgili ekonomilerde yaratacağı tarife değişimleri ve STA varlığı üzerinden ihracat değişimi bağımlı değişken olarak analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik olarak, statik ve dinamik (GMM) panel veri analizlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, tarife değişken katsayısı negatif (istatistiksel anlamlı) ve STA yapay değişken katsayısı ise yalnızca GMM (dinamik model yaklaşımı altında) yöntemi altında pozitif (istatistiksel anlamsız) olarak tespit edilmiştir. Hesaplanan katsayıların istatistiksel aralıkları dikkate alınarak uygulanan simülasyon uygulama sonuçlarına göre; ABD ile uygulanagelen tarife seviyelerinin giderilmesi, Türkiye için demir çelik ihacatında önemli seviyede (%18-24) artış yaratabilecektir. Ayrıca, TTIP’in küresel ölçekte yaratabileceği tarife azaltım dalgasının da Türkiye demir çelik ihracatı açısından anlamı dikkate değerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• TTIP (Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı/Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership),Türkiye Demir-Çelik İhracatı,Çekim Modeli,Monte-Carlo Simülasyonu

Meaning and Evaluation of Tariff Changes Expected with TTIP Project in terms of Iron and Steel Exports of Turkey

Öz

TTIP project which has been discussing among the EU and USA in recent years is a significant one that carrying potential to change current economical balances throughout the world. Industrial preliminary examination and analyses under the TTIP scenarios whether Turkey will be involved or not in to the processes of the project are important to be able to get ready for developments in future. Through this study, potential effects of TTIP project on exports of iron and steel industry that is considered as remarkable regarding its contribution into economies of Turkey in terms of employment, international trade volume, strong connection with other industries, and additive to the national income are tried to be evaluated. As being part of TTIP particularly through removing tariffs bilaterally with USA, Turkey might be get increase in its exports. In this study, the gravity model is utilized for modeling the trade flows, changing of exports as a dependent variable is analyzed under the conditions of tariff changes and existence of FTA as exogenous variables those are affected by the TTIP project. Static and dynamic (GMM) panel data analyses are utilized econometrically. According to results, coefficient of tariff is estimated as negative (statistically significant) and coefficient of FTA variable is estimated as positive (statistically insignificant) only through GMM method (under dynamic model approach). Based on simulation study results applied through statistical ranges of calculated coefficients; removing tariffs have being applied with USA means significant raise (%18-24) of iron and steel exports of Turkey. Additionally, tariff reduction wave on a global scale that could be initiated by TTIP is considerable for iron and steel export of Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• TTIP (Transatlantik Ticaret ve Yatırım Ortaklığı/Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership),Türkiye Demir-Çelik İhracatı,Çekim Modeli,Monte-Carlo Simülasyonu

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