Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 163 - 178, 01.03.2012

Osman Peker İsmet Göçer

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Bütçe Açıklarının Ampirik Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği, sınır testi yaklaşımıyla, 1987-2010 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Üç alt dönem ve tam dönemin araştırıldığı çalışmada şu ampirik bulgulara ulaşılmıştır: bütçe açıklarının; 1987:01-1994:03, 1994:04-2001:01 ve 1987:01-2010:12 dönemlerinde zayıf formda, 2001:02-2010:12 döneminde ise güçlü formda sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeline göre yapılan nedensellik analizinde ise, bütün dönemlerde, bütçe gelirleri, bütçe harcamalarının nedeni çıkmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bütçe Açığı, Sürdürülebilirlik, Eş-bütünleşme, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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