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Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 317 - 338, 01.06.2013

Öz

Economic literature generally contains growth models dominated by classical/neo-classical approach. These models focused on the differences in the growth rates among countries in terms of supply of factors of production. Wheras capital accumulation and technical progress are viewed as the main determinant of the growth, increase in per-capita income is only determined by supply-side factors. Should the economy is in the position of under-employment and under-capacity, then these approaches are not capable of satisfactory explanation for the economic growth. Assumptions of supply-side approach are endogenous regarding the economic system and restricted by the demand. In an open economy, growth can be defined as a component of a Keynesian demand-oriented economic system and it is genarally called as Post-Keynesian growth models. These models have been developed on two main axes: “Export-led growth model”, introduced by N. Kaldor and “balance-of-payment constrainedgrowth model”introduced by A.P.Thirwall in 1979. Export-led growth model is based on the assumption that internally determined productivity increases generate a virtous circle economy. Balance-of-payment constrained growth model, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that foreign trade deficit cannot continue forever and that long-run growth rate is a function of the export and elasticity of demand for import of the country. The objective of this paper is to discuss and critisize export-led growth and balance-of-payment constrained growth model.

Kaynakça

  • ALEXIADIS S. ve D. TSAGDIS (2006), “Reassessing the Validity of Verdoorn’s Law Under Conditions of Spatial Dependence: A Case Study of the Grek Regions”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol.29, No.1, 149–175.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1994), “Balance of Payments Determined Growth in Germany”, Applied EconomLetters, vol.1, 89–91.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1997), “Balance-of Payments Constrained Growth Model and Implications for the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 326–35.
  • BAIRAM, E. (1988), “Balance of Payments, the Harrod Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth: the European and North American Experience 1970–85”, Applied Economics ,20, 1635–
  • BLECKER, R. (2009), “Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?”; Paper prepared for presentation at the 2nd Summer School on ‘Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies’, Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies, 2-9 August, 2009, Berlin, Germany. http://nw08.american.edu/~blecker/research/Blecker_OpenEconPKModels.pdf (10/05/2012).
  • CHOUCHANE, V.A. (2005), “The Hussain-Thirlwall Model: Extensions and Implications for Development Economics”, African Development Bank, Blackwell Publishing Ltd.Oxford. DAVIDSON, Paul (1994), Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. USA.
  • DIXON, R. ve A.P.THIRLWALL (1975), “A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers,27 (2), 201–214.
  • DUTT, A.K. (2006), “Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth” International Review of Applied Economics,20 (3), 319–336.
  • ELLIOTT D.R. ve R.RHODD (1999), “Explaining Growth Rate Differences in Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, vol.31, 1145– 11
  • FERREİRA A.L. ve O.CANUTO (2003), “Thirlwall’s Law and Foreign Capital İn Brazil”, Momento Economico, 125, 18–29.
  • HARROD, R. (1933), International Economics, Cambridge University Pres, Cambridge.
  • HIEKE, H. (1997), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence for the U.S. Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 313–25.
  • HUSSAIN, M.N. (1999), “The Balance of Payment Constraint and Growth Rate Differences among African and East Asian Economies”, African Development Review, Vol. 11, No.1, 03–137. KALDOR, N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth” , The Economic Journal,.67 (268), 591–624. KALDOR, N. (1966-a), Causes of the Slow Rate of Growth in the United Kingdom, Cambridge University Pres, Cambridge.
  • KALDOR, N. (1966-b), “Marginal Productivity and the Macro-Economic Theories of Distribution: Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani” The Review of Economic Studies, 33 (4), 309– 3
  • KULA, F. (2008), “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Ödemeler Bilançosu Kısıtı:1980–2006 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 25, 59–69.
  • LEON, M.A. ve LEDESMA (1999), “An Application of Thirlwall’s Law to the Spanish Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Spring, 21 (3), 431–439.
  • LLERENA P. ve A. LORENTZ (2004), “Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Coevolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A Survey” , LEM Working Paper Series, 2003/27.
  • LORENTZ A.(2009), “Evolutionary Micro-founded Technical Change and the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law: Estimates from an Artificial World”, Papers on Economic&Evolution, ISSN 1430– 47
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1982), “Economic Growth, Kaldor's Laws and the Static–Dynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox”, Applied Economics, 14 (3), 279–294.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1983), “Kaldor’s Laws in Retrospect”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, spring, 5 (3), 414–429.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1985), “Economic Growth, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multipler and Hicks Super Multiplier”, Applied Economics, 17, 55–72.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1993), “Economic Growth, Trade Interlinkages, and the Balance of Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15, 471–505.
  • McCOMBIE, J. S. L. (1997), “Empirics of Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 345–75.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1998), “In Defence of Kaldor: A Comment on Casillas’s -Kaldor Versus Prebish on Employment and Industrialization”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Winter,1998–99, 21 (2), 353–361.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L.ve A.P.THIRLWALL (1999), “Growth in an International Context: A PostKeynesian View”, Deprez ve J.Harvey (eds.) içerisinde, Foundations of International Economics: Post Keynesian Perspectives, Routledge, London, 35–90.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L.ve A.P.THIRLWALL (2004), Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Theory and Eevidence, Routledge, Taylor & Francis e-Library.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1985), “Professor Thirlwall and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Applied Economics, 17, 17–32.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1986), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: a Rejoinder to Professor Thirlwall”, Applied Economics, 18, 1265–1274.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1991), “Thirlwall’s Law and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Further Comment on the Debate”, Applied Economics, 23, 9–20.
  • MORENO- BRID, J.C., ve E. PÉREZ (1999), “Balance-of-Payments- Constrained Growth in Central America: 1950–1996”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22 (1), 131–47.
  • MORENO- BRID, J. C. (2003), “Capital Flows, Interest, Payments and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained growth model: a Theoretical and an Empirical Analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54 (2–3), 346–65.
  • MYRDAL, G. (1957), Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, London: Duckworth
  • NOVELL, P. J. ve E.V.MARSAL (1998), “Kaldor’s Laws and Spatial Dependence: Evidence for the European Regions”, Regional Studies, 33 (5), 1, 443–451.
  • PALLEY, T.I. (1996), “Growth Theory in a Keynesian Mode: Some Keynesian Foundations for New Endogenous Growth Theory ”, Journal of Post Keynesian of Economics,1 (1).
  • PERROTON, Jonathan (2003), “Balance of Payments Constraint Growth and Developing Countries: an Examination of Thirwall’s Hypothesis”, Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Theory and Evidence, Routledge, Taylor & Francis e-Library içinde, 203–219.
  • PUGNO, M. (1998), “The stability of Thirlwall’s Model of Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian of Economics, 20, 559–81.
  • RAZMI, Arslan (2004), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: the Case of India”, Working Paper, 2005–05, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
  • STOCKHAMMER, E. (1999), “Robinsonian and Kaleckian Growth, An Update on Post-Keynesian Growth Theories”, University of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper, No.6
  • TARGETTI, Ferdinando (2000), A Biographical Dictionary of Dissenting Economists, second edition içinde N.Kaldor, 343–351, Edt.Phillip Arestis, M.Sawyer, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, March, 32, 45–53.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. ve M.N. HUSSAIN (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences Between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 34 (3), 498–510.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. (1986), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: a Reply to McGregor and Swales”, Applied Economics, 18, 1259–1263.
  • VERDOORN, P.J. (1993), “On the Factors Determining the Growth of Labour Productivity”, Italian Economic Papers 2, Oxford University Press, 1993, 59–68. Orijinal basım: “Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della producttivita del lavoro”, L’industria 1,1949, 45– 5
  • WELLS, H. and A.P. THIRLWALL (2003), “Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws Across the Countries of Africa”, African Development Review, December, 89–104.
  • YOUNG, Allyn A. (1928), “Increasing Returns and Economic Progress”, The Economic Journal,38 (152), 527–542.

Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 317 - 338, 01.06.2013

Öz

İktisat yazını genellikle klasik/neoklasik görüşün egemen olduğu büyüme modellerini yansıtmaktadır. Bu modeller, ülkelerarası büyüme oranı farklılıklarını mevcut iktisadi kaynaklar ve faktör arzı ile açıklamaktadır. Sermaye birikimi ve teknik ilerleme büyümenin ana belirleyicisi olarak görülürken, kişi başına düşen gelirin artması sadece arz yanlı faktörler tarafından belirlenmektedir. Fakat gerçekte ekonomi eksik istihdam ve eksik kapasite kullanımında çalışıyor ise, bu yaklaşımların ekonomik büyüme için yeterli bir açıklama gücüne sahip oldukları çok tartışmalı hale gelir. Arz yanlı yaklaşımın varsayımları iktisadi sisteme içseldir ve talep tarafından sınırlanmaktadır. Açık bir ekonomide talep yönelimli büyüme Keynesyen talep yönelimli makroekonomik sistemin uzantısı olarak açıklanabilir ve Post-Keynesyen Büyüme Modelleri olarak anılır. Bu modeller temelde N. Kaldor tarafından teorize edilen, ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli (İDBM) ve A.P. Thirlwall tarafından 1979 yılında ortaya atılan, ödemeler bilançosu kısıtı altında büyüme (ÖBKAB) modelleri olarak iki eksende gelişmektedir. Bunlardan İDBM, içsel olarak belirlenen verimlilik artışlarının etkisiyle kendi kendini besleyen (virtuous circle), kümülatif nedenselliğe dayalı bir büyüme modeli ileri sürerken, ÖBKAB; bir ülkenin dış ticaret açığının sonsuza dek sürdürülemeyeceği ve bu ekonominin uzun dönemli büyüme oranının yine bu ülkeye ait ihracatın ve ithalat talep esnekliğinin bir sonucu olarak belirleneceği varsayımına dayalı bir model ileri sürmektedir. Amacımız talep yönelimli bu gelişmeleri İDBM ve ÖBKAB çerçevesinde incelemek ve tartışmaktır.

Kaynakça

  • ALEXIADIS S. ve D. TSAGDIS (2006), “Reassessing the Validity of Verdoorn’s Law Under Conditions of Spatial Dependence: A Case Study of the Grek Regions”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol.29, No.1, 149–175.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1994), “Balance of Payments Determined Growth in Germany”, Applied EconomLetters, vol.1, 89–91.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. S. (1997), “Balance-of Payments Constrained Growth Model and Implications for the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 326–35.
  • BAIRAM, E. (1988), “Balance of Payments, the Harrod Trade Multiplier and Economic Growth: the European and North American Experience 1970–85”, Applied Economics ,20, 1635–
  • BLECKER, R. (2009), “Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?”; Paper prepared for presentation at the 2nd Summer School on ‘Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies’, Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies, 2-9 August, 2009, Berlin, Germany. http://nw08.american.edu/~blecker/research/Blecker_OpenEconPKModels.pdf (10/05/2012).
  • CHOUCHANE, V.A. (2005), “The Hussain-Thirlwall Model: Extensions and Implications for Development Economics”, African Development Bank, Blackwell Publishing Ltd.Oxford. DAVIDSON, Paul (1994), Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. USA.
  • DIXON, R. ve A.P.THIRLWALL (1975), “A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers,27 (2), 201–214.
  • DUTT, A.K. (2006), “Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth” International Review of Applied Economics,20 (3), 319–336.
  • ELLIOTT D.R. ve R.RHODD (1999), “Explaining Growth Rate Differences in Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, vol.31, 1145– 11
  • FERREİRA A.L. ve O.CANUTO (2003), “Thirlwall’s Law and Foreign Capital İn Brazil”, Momento Economico, 125, 18–29.
  • HARROD, R. (1933), International Economics, Cambridge University Pres, Cambridge.
  • HIEKE, H. (1997), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence for the U.S. Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 313–25.
  • HUSSAIN, M.N. (1999), “The Balance of Payment Constraint and Growth Rate Differences among African and East Asian Economies”, African Development Review, Vol. 11, No.1, 03–137. KALDOR, N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth” , The Economic Journal,.67 (268), 591–624. KALDOR, N. (1966-a), Causes of the Slow Rate of Growth in the United Kingdom, Cambridge University Pres, Cambridge.
  • KALDOR, N. (1966-b), “Marginal Productivity and the Macro-Economic Theories of Distribution: Comment on Samuelson and Modigliani” The Review of Economic Studies, 33 (4), 309– 3
  • KULA, F. (2008), “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Ödemeler Bilançosu Kısıtı:1980–2006 Dönemi Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 25, 59–69.
  • LEON, M.A. ve LEDESMA (1999), “An Application of Thirlwall’s Law to the Spanish Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Spring, 21 (3), 431–439.
  • LLERENA P. ve A. LORENTZ (2004), “Alternative Theories on Economic Growth and the Coevolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change: A Survey” , LEM Working Paper Series, 2003/27.
  • LORENTZ A.(2009), “Evolutionary Micro-founded Technical Change and the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law: Estimates from an Artificial World”, Papers on Economic&Evolution, ISSN 1430– 47
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1982), “Economic Growth, Kaldor's Laws and the Static–Dynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox”, Applied Economics, 14 (3), 279–294.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1983), “Kaldor’s Laws in Retrospect”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, spring, 5 (3), 414–429.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1985), “Economic Growth, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multipler and Hicks Super Multiplier”, Applied Economics, 17, 55–72.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1993), “Economic Growth, Trade Interlinkages, and the Balance of Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15, 471–505.
  • McCOMBIE, J. S. L. (1997), “Empirics of Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19 (3), 345–75.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L. (1998), “In Defence of Kaldor: A Comment on Casillas’s -Kaldor Versus Prebish on Employment and Industrialization”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Winter,1998–99, 21 (2), 353–361.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L.ve A.P.THIRLWALL (1999), “Growth in an International Context: A PostKeynesian View”, Deprez ve J.Harvey (eds.) içerisinde, Foundations of International Economics: Post Keynesian Perspectives, Routledge, London, 35–90.
  • McCOMBIE, J.S.L.ve A.P.THIRLWALL (2004), Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Theory and Eevidence, Routledge, Taylor & Francis e-Library.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1985), “Professor Thirlwall and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth”, Applied Economics, 17, 17–32.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1986), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: a Rejoinder to Professor Thirlwall”, Applied Economics, 18, 1265–1274.
  • McGREGOR, P. ve SWALES (1991), “Thirlwall’s Law and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Further Comment on the Debate”, Applied Economics, 23, 9–20.
  • MORENO- BRID, J.C., ve E. PÉREZ (1999), “Balance-of-Payments- Constrained Growth in Central America: 1950–1996”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22 (1), 131–47.
  • MORENO- BRID, J. C. (2003), “Capital Flows, Interest, Payments and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained growth model: a Theoretical and an Empirical Analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54 (2–3), 346–65.
  • MYRDAL, G. (1957), Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, London: Duckworth
  • NOVELL, P. J. ve E.V.MARSAL (1998), “Kaldor’s Laws and Spatial Dependence: Evidence for the European Regions”, Regional Studies, 33 (5), 1, 443–451.
  • PALLEY, T.I. (1996), “Growth Theory in a Keynesian Mode: Some Keynesian Foundations for New Endogenous Growth Theory ”, Journal of Post Keynesian of Economics,1 (1).
  • PERROTON, Jonathan (2003), “Balance of Payments Constraint Growth and Developing Countries: an Examination of Thirwall’s Hypothesis”, Essays on Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: Theory and Evidence, Routledge, Taylor & Francis e-Library içinde, 203–219.
  • PUGNO, M. (1998), “The stability of Thirlwall’s Model of Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian of Economics, 20, 559–81.
  • RAZMI, Arslan (2004), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: the Case of India”, Working Paper, 2005–05, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
  • STOCKHAMMER, E. (1999), “Robinsonian and Kaleckian Growth, An Update on Post-Keynesian Growth Theories”, University of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper, No.6
  • TARGETTI, Ferdinando (2000), A Biographical Dictionary of Dissenting Economists, second edition içinde N.Kaldor, 343–351, Edt.Phillip Arestis, M.Sawyer, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, March, 32, 45–53.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. ve M.N. HUSSAIN (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences Between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 34 (3), 498–510.
  • THIRLWALL, A.P. (1986), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: a Reply to McGregor and Swales”, Applied Economics, 18, 1259–1263.
  • VERDOORN, P.J. (1993), “On the Factors Determining the Growth of Labour Productivity”, Italian Economic Papers 2, Oxford University Press, 1993, 59–68. Orijinal basım: “Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della producttivita del lavoro”, L’industria 1,1949, 45– 5
  • WELLS, H. and A.P. THIRLWALL (2003), “Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws Across the Countries of Africa”, African Development Review, December, 89–104.
  • YOUNG, Allyn A. (1928), “Increasing Returns and Economic Progress”, The Economic Journal,38 (152), 527–542.
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yelda Bugay Tekgül Bu kişi benim

Mehmet Fatih Cin Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Tekgül, Y. B., & Cin, M. F. (2013). Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 20(2), 317-338.