Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacasının OECD Ülkeleri İçin Panel Veri Analiziyle Sınanması

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 369 - 390, 14.08.2018

İsmail Çifçi , Rabia İnci Özbek , Ergin Uzgören

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.340138

Cited By: 8

Öz

Feldstein-Horioka bulmacası, dünyada
artan sermaye hareketliliğine karşın yurtiçi tasarruflarla yurtiçi yatırımlar
arasındaki güçlü ilişkiyi ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışma 28 OECD ülkesi için
1980-2015 yıllık verilerini kullanarak Feldstein-Horioka bulmacasının
geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yurtiçi
tasarruflarla yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki üç aşamalı bir yöntemle
araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulguları şu şekilde sıralamak mümkündür: a)
Değişkenlerin kesitler arasında birbirine bağımlı olduğu üç farklı yatay kesit
bağımlılığı testiyle tespit edilmiştir; b) CADF, CIPS ve Panik Atak birim kök
testleri değişkenlerin düzey değerlerde birim köklü, birinci fark değerlerde
durağan olduklarını göstermektedir; c) Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli
ilişkiler Durbin-Hausman
koentegrasyon testi ve LM Bootstrap koentegrasyon testiyle araştırılmış ve
koentegrasyonun varlığı güçlü bir şekilde reddedilmiştir. Bu tespit 1980-2015
dönemi için 28 OECD ülkesinde Feldstein-Horioka
bulmacasının geçerli olmadığını, bu ülkelerde yurtiçi yatırımların uluslararası
sermaye piyasaları tarafından finanse edildiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası, Yatırımlar, Tasarruflar

Kaynakça

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