Dutch Disease: The Case of Indonesia-Palm Oil

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 1, 133 - 149, 09.03.2023

Selim Şanlısoy Sevim Nurbanu Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1189146

Öz

Palm oil emerges as an important raw material needed in many fields from food to chemical industry and energy sector. Indonesia is the largest palm oil producer in the world and has great potential to market this domestically and internationally. With a huge production capacity, the inability to effectively use income obtained from export of this product may have an adverse effect on the economic growth rate. This issue is called the Dutch Disease in literature. In this study, it is proposed that the validity of the Dutch Disease needs to be investigated asymmetrically in Indonesia during the period of 2000:Q1-2021:Q4. Using “The Nonlinear Lag Distributed Autoregressive Model” (NARDL) suggested by Shin et al. (2014), it is found that the positive shocks to palm oil price have a positive impact on real effective exchange rate. The findings indicate that the Dutch Disease hypothesis is valid in Indonesia. In this context, the income increase in Indonesia, leading to the diversification of goods by transferring more resources especially to the high-tech manufacturing industry, and the strengthening of the institutional structure, thus ensuring better management of resources, and transferring more resources to education and science will provide a solution to the Dutch Disease experienced in this country.
Key Words: Indonesia, Dutch Disease, Palm Oil, Real Efective Exchange Rate,
JEL Classification: E01, E61

Anahtar Kelimeler

Indonesia, Dutch Disease, Palm Oil, Real Efective, Exchange Rate

Hollanda Hastalığı: Endonezya-Palm Yağı Örneği

Öz

Palm yağı, gıdadan, kimya sanayi ve enerji sektörüne kadar birçok alanda ihtiyaç duyulan önemli bir hammadde olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Endonezya, dünyadaki en büyük palm yağı üreticisidir ve bu ürünü yurtiçinde ve yurtdışında pazarlamak için büyük bir potansiyele sahiptir. Geniş bir üretim kapasitesi ile birlikte, bu ürünün ihracatından kazanılan gelirin etkin bir şekilde kullanılamaması ekonomik büyüme oranı üzerinde olumsuz etki yaratabilmektedir. Bu husus literatürde Hollanda Hastalığı olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 2000:Q1-2021:Q4 dönemi için Endonezya’da Hollanda Hastalığı’nın geçerliliğini asimetrik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Shin vd. (2014) tarafından önerilen doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresyon modelinin (NARDL) kullanıldığı çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, uzun dönemde palm yağı fiyatlarındaki pozitif şokların reel efektif döviz kuru üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Endonezya ekonomisinde Hollanda Hastalığı’nın geçerli olduğunu ifade etmektedir. Bu bağlamda Endonezya’da ortaya çıkan gelir artışından özellikle yüksek teknolojiye sahip imalat sanayine daha fazla kaynak aktarımı sağlanarak mal çeşitlendirilmesine gidilmesi, kurumsal yapının güçlendirilmesi böylece kaynakların daha iyi yönetilmesinin sağlanması, eğitim ve bilime daha fazla kaynak aktarılması bu ülkede yaşanan Hollanda Hastalığı’nın çözümünü sağlayacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Endonezya, Hollanda Hastalığı, Palm Yağı, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru,
JEL Sınıflandırması: E01, E61

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hollanda Hastalığı, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, Endonezya, Palm Yağı

Kaynakça

• Abdlaziz, R. A. (2018). Dutch disease effect of oil price on agriculture sector: evidence from panel cointegration of oil exporting countries. International Journal of Energy Economic Policy, 8(5), 241-250.
• Alssadek, M.,and Benhin, J. (2021). Oil boom, exchange rate and sectoral output: An empirical analysis of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries. Resources Policy, 74(102362), 1-14.
• Amin, Z.A. and El-Sakka, M. T. (2016). Determining real exchange rate fluctuations in the oil-based GCC economies. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 6(7). 374-389.
• Apergis, N., El-Montasser, G., Sekyere, E., Ajmi, A. N. and Gupta, R. (2014). Dutch disease effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Energy Economics, 45, 485-490.
• Backer, L.C. (2009). Sovereign wealth funds as regulatory chameleons: The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Funds and public global governance through private global investment. Georgetown Journal of International Law, 41(2), 101-192.
• Baudoin, B. P.M., Bessou, C. and Levang, P., A. (2017). Review of the diversity of oil palm system in Indonesia: Case study of two provinces: Riau and Jambi. Working Paper Center for International Forestry Research, 23, 1-84. https://doi.org/10.17528/ cifor/006462 Baudoin
• Bayramov, G. and P. Conway, (2010). The Azerbaijan Producers Survey: Dutch Disease and Financial Crisis. http://www.erc.az/files/reports/Bayramov_Conway_Azerbaijan.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2018.
• Behzadan, N., Chisik, R., Onder, H. and Battaile, B. (2017). Does inequality drive the Dutch Disease? Theory and evidence. Journal of International Economics, 106, 104-118.
• Bozkuş, S., and Kahyaoğlu, H. (2018). Üretim ile reel efektif döviz kurunun uzun dönemli ilişkisi: Kazakistan üzerine bir uygulama. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(2), 360-387.
• Busse, M., and Gröning, S. (2013). The resource curse revisited: governance and natural resources. Public Choice, 154, 1-20.
• Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming sector and Dutch disease economics: Survey and consolidation. Oxford Economic Papers, 36(3), 359-380.
• Corden, W. M., and Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming sector and de-industrialisation in a small open economy. The economic journal, 92(368), 825-848.
• Cust, J., T. Harding, and Vézina, P. L. (2019). Dutch disease resistance: Evidence from Indonesian firms. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 6:6, 1205-1237.
• Deacon, R. T. (2011). The political economy of the natural resource curse: A survey of theory and evidence. Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics 7(2). 111-208.
• Egeli, H. and Özen, A. (2020). Teoride ve Uygulamada Bütçe Politikası, İzmir: Kitapana Basım Yayın Dağıtım Bilişim, 4.Basım.
• Frankel, J. A. (2012). The natural resource curse: A survey of diagnoses and some prescriptions. Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, Washington DC: IMF. 7-34.
• Gelb, A.H., (1988). Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? Oxford University Press
• Granger C.W.J. and Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration, University of California, Economics Working Paper, No: 02.
• Iimi, A. (2007). Escaping From The Resource Curse: Evidence From Botswana And The Rest Of The World. Staff Paper Vol. 54, No. 4, International Monetary Fund.
• Ismail, K. (2010). The Structural Manifestation Of The ‘Dutch Disease’: The Case Of Oil Exporting Countries. International Monetary Fund. Working Paper 10/103
• Jahan-Parvar, M. R. and Mohammadi, H. (2011). Oil prices and real exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: A bounds testing approach. The Journal of Developing Areas, 313-322.
• Mehlum, H., Moene, K. and Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the resource curse. The Economic Journal, 116(508), 1-20.
• Mercan, M. and Göçer, İ. (2014). Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde Hollanda Hastalığı riski: Ampirik bir analiz. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 251-274.
• Morshed, A. M. and Turnovsky, S. J. (2004). Sectoral adjustment costs and real exchange rate dynamics in a two-sector dependent economy. Journal of International Economics, 63(1), 147-177.
• Murphy, D. J. (2007). Future prospects for oil palm in the 21st century: Biological and related challenges. European Journal of Lipid Science and Technology, 109(4), 296-306.
• Ngando-Ebongue, G.F., Ajambang, W.N., Koona, P., Firman, B.L. and Arondel, V., (2012). Oil palm. In: Gupta, S.K. (Ed.). Technological Innovations in Major World Oil Crops. 1. Springer, London, 165–200. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0356-2. Breeding
• OEC, (2019). Palm oil trade exporters. The Observatory of Economic Complexity (ed.). Online available at https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/hs92/1511/. Erişim Tarihi: 20.06.2022.
• Omolade, A. and Ngalawa, H. (2014). Oil revenue and manufacturing sector growth in Africa’s oil-exporting countries. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 7(3), 925-944.
• Özgül, H. B. (2020). Norveç Varlık Fonu üzerine bir inceleme. International Journal of Public Finance, 5(1), 101-126.
• Pelzl, P. and Poelhekke, S. (2018). Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia. OxCarre Research Paper 214, Department of Economics OxCarre (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies)
• Priyati, R. Y. (2009). Dutch disease economics: A case study of Indonesia. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 1(3). 147-159.
• Sachs, J.D. and Warner, A.M., (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4), 827–838.
• Sezer, S. (2017). Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin ekonomik performansının Hollanda Hastalığı yönünden incelenmesi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(4), 673-688.
• Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281-314). Springer, New York, NY.
• Siregar, C. D. T. And Sihaloho, E. D. (2021). Could palm oil plantation increase individual expenditure? The Dutch disease implication in Indonesia. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 77-92
• St. Louis FED (2022). FRED Economic Data, https://fred.stlouisfed.org, Erişim Tarihi: 20.06.2022.
• SWFI Institute. (2021). Top 100 Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Rankings by Total Assets, https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/sovereign-wealth-fund (08.03.2022).
• Şanlısoy, S. and Ekinci, R. (2019). Azerbaycan Ekonomisinin Hollanda Hastalığı açısından değerlendirilmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 26(2). 595-608.
• Taguchi, H., Khinsamone, S. (2018). Analysis of the ‘Dutch Disease’ effect on the selected resource-rich ASEAN Economies. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 5(2), 249-263.
• TC. Ticaret Bakanlığı, (2022). Endonezya Ülke Profili, T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı Uluslararası Anlaşmalar ve Avrupa Birliği Genel Müdürlüğü, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5f11929513b87614f041add8/Endonezya%20%C3%BClke%20profili_2022.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 09.07.2022.
• Torvik, R. (2001). Learning by doing and the Dutch disease. European Economic Review, 45(2), 285-306.
• Usui, N. (1996). Policy adjustments to the oil boom and their evaluation: The Dutch Disease in Indonesia. World Development, 24(5), 887-900.
• Utkulu, U. and Ekinci, R. (2016). Uluslararası petrol ve gıda fiyatlarından iç fiyatlara asimetrik ve doğrusal olmayan fiyat geçişkenliği: Türkiye için NARDL modeli bulguları. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53(617), 9-22.
• Vivek, V. B. S. C. L. (2019). Global market report. Exchange Organizational Behavior Teaching Journal, 62, 1-10.
• Wijnbergen, van S. (1984). The `Dutch Disease': A disease after all?. The Economic Journal, 94(373), 41–55, https://doi.org/10.2307/2232214
• Yardımcıoğlu, F. and Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol fiyatları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik bir analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19), 117-140.
• Zubikova, A. (2018). Curse or blessing: economic growth and natural resources (Comparison of the Development of Botswana, Canada, Nigeria and Norway in the Early 21st Century). Agricultural and resource economics: International scientific e-journal, 4(1), 20-41.