N -11 Ülkelerinin Birincil Enerji Tüketimine Yönelik Toplam Nüfusa Dayalı Tahmin Modelleri

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 2, 719 - 736, 31.08.2025

Büşra Demir Avci , İzzet Karakurt , Gökhan Aydın

https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1668438

Öz

Bu çalışma, trend analizi (TA) ile toplam nüfusa (TP) dayalı olarak gelecek on bir (N-11) ülkelerinin birincil enerji tüketimine (PEC) yönelik tahmin modelleri oluşturmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, N-11 ülkelerinin 1985'ten 2023'e kadar olan TP ve PEC verileri tahmin modellerinin oluşturulması için kullanılmıştır. Kurulan modeller daha sonra çeşitli istatistiksel göstergelerle doğrulanmıştır. Ayrıca, kurulan modellerin tahmin doğrulukları, ortalama mutlak sapma (MAD), ortalama karekök hatası (RMSE), bağıl ortalama karekök hatası (RRMSE), %95'te belirsizlik (U95), maksimum mutlak bağıl hata (erMAX) ve ortalama mutlak yüzde hatası (MAPE) gibi çeşitli hata endeksleriyle ölçülmüştür. Ek olarak, kurulan modeller ile örnek ülkelerinin PEC'leri 2025 yılından itibaren on yıllık bir dönem için tahmin edilmiştir. Kurulan modellerin N-11 ülkelerinin PEC’lerini başarılı bir şekilde tahmin edebildiği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, tahmin sonuçları, mevcut çalışmanın koşulları dikkate alındığında, yakın gelecekte ilgili ülkeler için önemli artışların beklendiğini açıkça göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Birincil enerji tüketimi , Model , N – 11 ülkeleri , Tahmin , Toplam nüfus

Forecasting Models Based on Total Population for Primary Energy Consumption of the N – 11 Countries

Öz

This study aims to establish forecasting models for primary energy consumption (PEC) of next eleven (N–11) countries based on total population (TP) using trend analysis (TA). In this regards, the data of TP and PEC spanning from 1985 to 2023 were utilized for the N – 11 countries to establish forecasting models. The established models were then validated by several statistical indicators. In addition, forecasting accuracies of the established models were measured by various error indices such as mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, the PECs of case countries were forecasted for period of ten years starting at 2025 by the established models. It is determined that the established models are able to successfully forecast the PECs of N – 11 countries. Furthermore, the forecasting results show evidently that significant increases are expected for the related countries in near future when taking into account the current studies’ conditions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Forecast , Model , N – 11 Countries , Primary energy consumption , Total population

Kaynakça

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