Current Earthquake Potential of Hakkari and its Surroundings, Southeast Anatolia, Türkiye: Region-Time-Magnitude Analyses

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 2, 648 - 664, 31.08.2024

Serkan Öztürk , Hamdi Alkan

https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1433478

Öz

Hakkari, Türkiye, is one of the most active provinces of the Southeast Anatolian Region in terms of seismicity and tectonism. During the instrumental and historical period, these fault systems in the Hakkari region have produced many destructive/damaging earthquakes. The earthquakes that occurred in December 2023 (Mw=4.7) and February 2024 (Mw=4.3) in recent years are important indicators of current seismicity in this region. According to the results obtained from the analyses, the average b-value in the study region is 0.88±0.09 and the lowest b-values are observed around the Yüksekova-Şemdinli Fault Zone. In addition, positive Coulomb stress changes have been observed in and around Hakkari in NW-SE and NE-SW directions. On the other hand, the return period of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=5.0 for the selected region is ~16 years. Also, the occurrence probabilities of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=5.0 in 10, 16 and 20 years is calculated as ~45%, 62% and ~69%, respectively. In conclusion, the current seismic hazard potential of Hakkari province and its surroundings has been revealed with the combination of seismotectonic parameters calculated in this study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

b-value, Earthquake probability, Hakkari, Return period, Stress, Z-value

Hakkari ve Civarının (Güneydoğu Anadolu, Türkiye) Güncel Deprem Potansiyeli: Bölge-Zaman-Magnitüd Analizleri

Öz

Hakkari (Türkiye), depremsellik ve tektonizma olarak Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesinin en aktif illerinden bir tanesidir. Aletsel ve tarihsel dönemde, Hakkari ili ve civarında bulunan bu fay ve fay zonları birçok yıkıcı/hasar verici deprem üretmiştir. Son yıllarda Aralık 2023 (Mw=4.7) ve Şubat 2024’de (Mw=4.3) meydana gelen depremler, bu bölgedeki güncel depremselliğin önemli göstergelerindendir. Analizlerden elde edilen bulgulara göre, bölgede ortalama b-değeri 0.880.09 olup en düşük b-değerleri Yüksekova-Şemdinli Fay Zonu civarında gözlenmiştir. Buna ek olarak, pozitif Coulomb gerilme değişimleri Hakkari ili ve civarında KB-GD ve KD-GB yönlü olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Diğer taraftan, seçilen bölge için Mw=5.0 büyüklüğündeki bir depremin tekrarlama zamanı ~16 yıldır. Ayrıca, Mw=5.0 büyüklüğündeki bir depremin 10, 16 ve 20 yılda oluşma olasılıkları ise sırasıyla ~%45, ~%62 ve ~%69 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışmada hesaplanan sismotektonik parametrelerin birlikte değerlendirilmesi ile Hakkari ili ve civarının güncel sismik tehlike potansiyeli ortaya çıkarılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

b-değeri, Deprem olasılığı, Gerilme, Hakkari, Tekrarlama periyodu, Z-değeri

Kaynakça

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