Modeling future land use/land cover dynamics in Ayvacık District (Çanakkale, Türkiye) using a CA-Markov Model
Öz
Objective: This study aims to model the future land-use/land-cover dynamics in the Ayvacık District of Çanakkale Province and evaluate possible spatial transformation trends for 2040 within an ecological planning framework.
Materials and Methods: A Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) -supported Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was used to simulate future land-use dynamics and to generate a land-use/land-cover map for 2040.
Results: Approximately 56% of the study area experienced LULC change during the study period. Settlement areas, transportation infrastructure, industrial and commercial areas, and mining areas increased, whereas maquis, pastures, and other semi-natural landscape elements declined. The 2040 simulation indicated that these trends are likely to continue, with further expansion of settlement areas, secondary road networks, and water bodies; agricultural lands, olive groves, pastures, and semi-natural landscapes are likely to remain under transformation pressure.
Conclusion: The findings suggest that land-use changes in Ayvacık are driven by both environmental conditions and socio-economic factors, including tourism development, transportation investments, and rural economic transformations. The study provides valuable information for sustainable land management, ecological planning, and future decision-making processes.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ayvacık, CA-Markov, land change modeling, land use/land cover, TerrSet
Destekleyen Kurum
Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye
Proje Numarası
123Y327
Etik Beyan
We declare that an ethics committee is not required for this study.
Teşekkür
This study was financially supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) under project number 123Y327.The authors acknowledge financial support.
Kaynakça
- Aghababaei, M., A. Ebrahimi, A.A. Naghipour, E. Asadi & J. Verrelst, 2024. Monitoring of plant ecological units cover dynamics in a semiarid landscape from past to future using multi-layer perceptron and Markov chain model. Remote Sensing, 16: 1612. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16091612
- Alalawi, A.F.T., 2020. Uydu Görüntüleri ile Kerkük ili ve Çevresindeki Kentsel Yayılmanın İzlenmesi. Erciyes Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, (Unpublished) Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Kayseri, 58 s. (in Turkish with abstract in English)
- Alyakut, E., 2018. Çanakkale İli Ayvacık İlçesi Adatepe Köyünde Tarihi Çevre Koruma Çalışması. Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Entitüsü, (Unpublished) Doktora Tezi, İstanbul, 203 s. (in Turkish with abstract in English)
- Arsanjani, J.J., M. Helbich, W. Kainz & A.D. Boloorani, 2013. Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 21: 265-275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
- Azız, B.S., 2023. Current And Future Urban Expansion Trends and its Impact on Agricultural Lands Comparison Study in Erbil, Şanlıurfa and Freiburg Imbreisgau Using GIS and Remote Sensing. Harran Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Şanlıurfa, 103 s. (in Turkish with abstract in English)
- Bakshi, A. & M. Esraz-Ul-Zannat, 2023. Application of urban growth boundary delineation based on a neural network approach and landscape metrics for Khulna City, Bangladesh. Heliyon, 9 (6): e16272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16272
- Çanakkale Valiliği, 2024. Ayvacık ilçe tanıtım. http://www.canakkale.gov.tr/ayvacik (Date accessed: October 2024). (in Turkish)
- Çeliker, İ.Ö. & K. Güler, 2022. Kırsal soylulaştırmanın eşiğinde olan Ayvacık-Büyükhüsun tarihi yerleşiminin miras değerleri. Yakın Mimarlık Dergisi, 6 (2): 292-325. https://doi.org/10.32955/neujna202262438 (in Turkish)
- Cengiz Taşlı, T., B. Eren & D. Puyan, 2024. “Depremler ve kırsal morfolojiye etkileri: Çanakkale İli Ayvacık İlçesi Depremleri Örneği, 1-16”. In: Cumhuriyetin 100. Yılı Anısına Çanakkale Kırsalında Tasarım ve Planlama Yaklaşımları (Eds. T. Cengiz Taşlı & B. Eren). Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Yayınları No: 17, Çanakkale, Türkiye, 171 pp. (in Turkish with abstract in English)
- Cengiz, S., 2019. Kentsel Büyüme Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi: Ankara Kenti Simülasyonu. Ankara University, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi, Ankara, 264 s. (in Turkish with abstract in English)
