Ege Bölgesinde Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) ile kuraklık değerlendirmesi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 3 - Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Cilt: 60 Sayı: 3, 515 - 528, 13.10.2023

Şener Özçelik , Erhan Akkuzu

https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.1286331

Cited By: 1

Öz

Amaç: Kuraklık, son yıllarda artan iklim değişikliğinin de etkisi ile su kaynakları ve tarımsal üretimi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye tarımsal üretiminin önemli bir kısmının gerçekleştirildiği Ege Bölgesinde Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) ile kuraklığın zamansal ve mekânsal değişimini incelemektir.
Materyal ve Yöntem: Çalışmada Ege bölgesinde bulunan 29 meteoroloji istasyonuna ait 1975-2014 yılları arasındaki iklim parametreleri kullanılmıştır. Aylık toplam yağış ve referans evapotranspirasyon (ETo) değerleri kullanılarak farklı zaman ölçeklerinde (1, 3, 6, 12 ve 24 aylık) Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi (SPEI) değerleri elde edilmiştir. Aylık ETo değerleri Penman-Monteith (FAO 56) yöntemine göre hesaplanmıştır.
Araştırma Bulguları: Ege Bölgesi genelinde SPEI değerlerine göre şiddetli ve çok şiddetli kuraklıkların yaşandığı görülmüştür. Özellikle 1989,1993, 2007, 2008, 2011 ve 2012 kuraklıkların yaşandığı yıllar olmuştur. Ege Bölgesinde 2007-2008 yılları çok şiddetli kuraklıkların kaydedildiği yıllar olmuştur. SPEI değerlerinin uzun zaman ölçeğinde kurak periyotları mekânsal olarak daha belirgin tespit edebilme potansiyeline sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Uzun zaman ölçeğindeki SPEI değerleri kesintisiz uzun kurak dönemlerin tanımlanmasında daha yararlı sonuçlar üretirken, kısa zaman ölçeklerinde ise kısa periyotlar halinde ve sayısal olarak daha fazla kurak dönemler elde edilmiştir.
Sonuç: SPEI, kuraklık riskine karşı tarımsal üretimin ve su kaynaklarının planlanması, sosyo-ekonomik etkilerin en aza indirebilmesi için karar vericilere önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Evapotranspirasyon, iklimsel su dengesi, jeoistatistik, kuraklık indisleri, kuraklık şiddeti, Penman-Monteith

Teşekkür

Yüksek lisans tezine meteorolojik veri sağlayan Meteoroloji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğüne ve çalışanlarına teşekkür ederiz.

Evaluation of drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the Aegean Region

Öz

Objective: Water resources and agricultural production are affected negatively by drought with the effect of increasing climate change in recent years. The objective of this study was to examine temporal and spatial distribution of the drought with Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in Aegean Region in which is carried out a significant part of agricultural production of Türkiye.
Material and Methods: Climatic values between 1975 and 2014 of 29 meteorological stations were used in throughout Aegean Region. SPEI values were obtained at different time scales (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months) by using monthly total precipitation (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Monthly ETo values were calculated according to Penman-Monteith (FAO 56) method.
Results: According to the SPEI values, severe and extreme droughts were observed in the entire Aegean Region. Especially in 1989, 1993, 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012 drought events were experienced. Extreme droughts were recorded in 2007 and 2008. Thus, it has been observed that SPEI values have the potential to determine spatially drought periods on a long-time scale. While SPEI values at long time scales was produced more useful results to define uninterrupted long drought periods, on the contrary, at shorter time scales it was obtained drought events which are shorter periods and a greater number of them.
Conclusion: SPEI provides important information to decision makers in planning agricultural production and water resources against the risk of drought and minimizing socio-economic impacts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Evapotranspiration, climatic water balance, geostatistics, drought indices, drought severity, Penman-Monteith.

Kaynakça

• Alexandersson, H., 1986. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6: 661-675.
• Allen, R.G., L.S. Pereira, D. Raes & M. Smith, 1998. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300 (9): D05109.
• Aydın, O. & İ. Çiçek, 2013. Ege Bölgesinde yağışın mekânsal dağılımı. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 2013 CBD 11 (2): 101-120.
• Bartels, R., 1982. The Rank Version of von Neumann’s Ratio Test for Randomness, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77: 40-46.
• Buishand, T. A., 1982. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, Journal of Hydrology, 58: 11-27.
• Deng, S., T. Chen, N. Yang, L. Qu, M. Li & D. Chen, 2018. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought characteristics across the Pearl River basin. Science of the Total Environment, 619: 28-41.
• Feng, X., A. Porporato & I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, 2013. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics. Nat. Clim. Chang., 3 (9): 811-815.
• Gao, X., Q. Zhao, X. Zhao, P. Wu, W. Pan, X. Gao & M. Sun, 2017. Temporal and spatial evolution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Loess Plateau under climate change from 2001 to 2050. Science of the Total Environment, 595: 191-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.226
• Hayes, M., M. Svoboda, N. Wall & M. Widhalm, 2011. The Lincoln declaration on drought indices:Universal meteorological drought index reccomended. American Meteorological Society, 92 (4): 485-488.
• Kumar, P., 2013. Hydrology: seasonal rain changes, Nat. Clim. Change, 3 (9): 783-784.
• Labedzki, L. & E. Kanecka-Geszke, 2009. Standardized evapotranspiration as an agricultural drought index. Irrigation and Drainage, 58 (5): 607-616. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.421
• Laimighofer, J. & G. Laaha, 2022. How standard are standardized drought indices? Uncertainty components for the SPI & SPEI case, Journal of Hydrology, 613: 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128385
• Li, Y., Z. Xie, Y. Qin, H. Xia, Z. Zheng, L. Zhang & Z. Liu, 2019. Drought under global warming and climate change: An empirical study of the Loess Plateau. Sustainability, 11 (5): 1281. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051281
• Liu, C., C. Yang, Q. Yang & J. Wang, 2021. Spatiotemporal drought analysis by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Sichuan Province, China. Scientific Reports, 11 (1): 1280. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80527-3
• Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., S.M. Vicente-Serrano, J.I. López-Moreno, S. Beguería, J.M. García-Ruiz & J.M. Cuadrat, 2010. The impact of droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain). Journal of Hydrology, 386: 13-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.001
• Mathbout, S., J.A. Lopez-Bustins, J. Martin-Vide, J. Bech & F.S. Rodrigo, 2018. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961-2012. Atmospheric Research, 200: 153-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.016
• McKee, T.B., N.J. Doesken & J. Kleist, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 1-22 January 1993, Anaheim, California.
• Mengü, G. P., T. Yildirim, E. Ozcakal & E. Akkuzu, 2019. Temporal change of climatological precipitation deficit index in the Buyuk Menderes Basin, Turkey. Agronomy Journal, 111 (1): 336-342. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2018.03.0151
• Mengü, G.P., S. Anaç & E. Özçakal, 2011. Kuraklık yönetim stratejileri, Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 48 (2): 175-181. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/zfdergi/issue/5101/69652
• MGM, 2019. Türkiye iklim verileri, https://www.mgm.gov.tr/index.aspx, (Erişim tarihi: 01.11.2019)
• Milly, P.C.D. & K.A. Dunne, 2016. Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying. Nat. Clim. Chang., Vol 6, October 2016,946-949. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3046
• Mirgol, B., M. Nazari, H.R. Etedali & K. Zamanian, 2021. Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi‐arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate. Meteorological Applications, 28 (4): e2009. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2009
• Mishra, A. K. & V.P. Singh 2010. A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391 (1-2): 202-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
• Mulla, D.J. & A.B. McBratney, 2002. Soil spatial variability. Soil physics companion, 343373.
• Musei, S.K., J.M. Nyaga & A.Z. Dubow, 2021. SPEI-based spatial and temporal evaluation of drought in Somalia, Journal of Arid Envroments, 184 (2021) 104296: 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104296
• Özçelik, Ş., G.P. Mengü & E. Akkuzu, 2012, “Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi ile Gediz Havzasında Kuraklık Analizi, P59”. II. Ulusal Sulama ve Tarımsal Yapılar Sempozyumu (24-25 Mayıs 2012, İzmir) Bildirileri, 1268 s.
• Özçelik, Ş., G.P. Mengü & E. Akkuzu, 2019, “Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndisi ile Büyük Menderes Havzasında Kuraklık Analizi, 149”. 6. Uluslararası Katılımlı Toprak ve Su Kaynakları Kongresi (12-14 Kasım 2019, İzmir), 213 s.
• Pei, Z., S. Fang, L. Wang & W. Yang, 2020. Comparative analysis of drought indicated by the SPI and SPEI at various timescales in inner Mongolia, China. Water, 12 (7): 1925. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071925
• Pettitt, A. N., 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Applied Statistics 28: 126-135.
• Potop, V., M. Možný & J. Soukup, 2012. Drought evolution at various time scales in the lowland regions and their impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 156: 121-133.
• Potopová, V., P. Štěpánek, M. Možný, L. Türkott & J. Soukup, 2015. Performance of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index at various lags for agricultural drought risk assessment in the Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 202: 26-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.022
• Spinoni, J., G. Naumann, J. Vogt & P. Barbosa, 2016. Meteorological droughts in Europe: events and impacts-past trends and future projections. http://dx.doi.org/10.2788/450449
• Vermes, L.,1998. “How to Work Out a Drought Mitigation Strategy: An ICID Guide”. DVWK Guidelines for Water Management, ISSN 0937-3209, No. 309: 29 pp.
• Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J.J.Camarero, J.I. López-Moreno, C. Azorin-Molina,... & A. Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2012b. Performance of drought indices for ecological, agricultural, and hydrological applications. Earth Interactions, 16 (10): 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000434.1
• Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, L. Gimeno, L. Eklundh, G. Giuliani, D. Weston,... & G.G. Pegram, 2012a. Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa: The potential use of geospatial data and drought information systems. Applied Geography, 34: 471-486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.02.001
• Vicente-Serrano, S.M., S. Begueria & J.I. Lopez-Moreno, 2010. A Multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Journal of Climate, 23: 1696-1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
• Wang, H., S.M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Tao, X. Zhang, P. Wang, C. Zhang, Y. Chen, D. Zhu & A.E. Kenawy, 2016. Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in Northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000-2013. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.06.004
• Wijngaard, J.B., A.M. Klein Tank & G.P. Können, 2003. Homogeneity of 20th Century Europan Daily Temperature And Precipitation Series, International Journal of Climatology, 23: 679-692. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.906
• Wilhite, D. A., 1993. Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies (Vol. 2). Springer Science & Business Media. 294 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-3224-8
• Wilhite, D.A. & M.H. Glantz, 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water Int., 10: 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328
• Yeşilırmak, E. & L. Atatanır, 2016. Spetiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in Western Turkey, Nat. Hazards, 81: 687-704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2102-2
• Zhang, B., X. Zhao, J. Jin & P. Wu, 2015. Development and evaluation of a physically based multiscalar drought index: The Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index, JGR Atmospheres, 120: 11575-11588. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023772
• Zhao, H., G. Gao, W. An, X. Zou, H. Li & M. Hou, 2017. Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts a/b/c, 102: 48-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2015.10.022