Analysis of factors affecting the import demand for wheat and corn in Türkiye using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 62 Sayı: 1, 1 - 18, 14.03.2025

Kurtuluş Merdan , Şafak Çomaklı

https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.1467449

Öz

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to analyze the determining factors on the import demand for wheat and corn, which have an important place in Türkiye's grain imports, with the "Apparently Unrelated Regressions" model.
Material and Methods: The data set used in this study consists of annual data covering the years 2006-2021. Stata program was used to analyze the data used in the study. Since Stata or Eviews programs do not provide the Standardized Beta (β) coefficient, statistical analyzes were performed using the formula in Microsoft Excel (β=B*SSXi / SSY).
Results: Only the one-year delayed value of wheat imports, which is one of the explanatory variables in the wheat import model, was found to be significant, according to the study's findings. In terms of factors influencing corn import demand, similar results were obtained. Only total corn consumption was found to be statistically noteworthy among the explanatory variables in the corn import model.
Conclusion: Based on these findings, wheat imports are influenced by changes in wheat imports from a year ago, while corn imports are influenced by changes in total corn consumption. Based on Türkiye's current structure and the findings obtained, it is understood that the country may continue to maintain its position as an importer of wheat and corn in the future.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Corn, demand, import, wheat

Türkiye’de buğday ve mısır ithalat talebini etkileyen faktörlerin Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon Yöntemine göre analizi

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin tahıl ithalatı içerisinde önemli yer tutan buğday ve mısır ithalat talebi üzerinde belirleyici faktörlerin “Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyonlar” modeli ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır.
Materyal ve Yöntem: Bu çalışmada kullanılan veri seti 2006-2021 yıllarını kapsayan yıllık verilerden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan verilerin analizinde Stata programından yararlanılmıştır. Stata veya Eviews programları Standardize Beta (β) katsayısını vermediğinden dolayı, Microsoft Excel'de formül kullanılarak (β=B*SSXi / SSY) istatistiki analizlere ulaşılmıştır.
Araştırma Bulguları: Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre; buğday ithalat modelindeki açıklayıcı değişkenlerden sadece buğday ithalatının bir yıl gecikmeli değerinin anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Benzer sonuçlar mısır ithalat talebine etki eden faktörler açısından da elde edilmiştir. Mısır ithalat modelindeki açıklayıcı değişkenlerden sadece toplam mısır tüketiminin anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Sonuç: Tüm bu bulgulardan hareketle buğday ithalatını bir yıl önceki buğday ithalatında meydana gelecek değişim, mısır ithalatını ise toplam mısır tüketiminde meydana gelecek değişim etkilemektedir. Türkiye’nin mevcut yapısı ve elde edilen bulgular dikkate alındığında gelecekte buğday ve mısır ithalatçısı konumunu sürdürebileceği anlaşılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mısır, talep, ithalat, buğday

Kaynakça

• Adıgüzel, U., T. Bayat & S. Kayhan, 2012. The long-run effect of the financial system on import demand: the case of Turkey. Doğuş University Magazine, 13 (2): 173- 188.
• Aktaş, E. & O. Yurdakul, 2005. The effect of support and technology policies on corn agriculture in Çukurova Region. Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Agriculture, 20 (2): 19-28.
• Andino, J. & P. L. Kennedy, 2004. “A dynamic import demand analysis of Honduran coffee, 1-16”. Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Tulsa, Oklahoma, 1365 pp.
• Arı, A., 2021. Income inequality and import demand: cointegration analysis. Journal of Dicle University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 11 (22): 429-440.
• Badem, M. & H. Hurma, 2021. An overview of support policies in wheat, the main strategic product. Trakya University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 22 (1): 21-30.
• BBC NEWS, 2023. Why is Turkey the 3rd country that imports the most wheat? (Web page: https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-Turkey-62052338) (Date accessed: March 12, 2023).
• Birtek, F. & C. Keyder, 1975. Agriculture and the state: An inquiry into agricultural differentiation and political alliances: The case of Turkey. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 2: 446-467.
• Boz, F. & N. Hüseyinli, 2019. A forecast modeling for banana production and imports in Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Applied Sciences, 1 (1-2): 63-82.
• Breusch, T. S. & A. R. Pagan, 1979. A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 48: 1287-1294.
• Demirbaş, N. & E. Akkurt, 2021. “Evaluation of self-sufficiency in corn production in Turkey, 798-809”. XV. IBANESS Economics, Business and Management Sciences Congress Series (29-30 May 2021, Plovdiv / Bulgaria), 1540 pp.
• Demirdöğen, A. & E. Olhan, 2014. Evaluation of Turkey and Russia Agricultural Trade in Terms of Policy Change. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 20 (2): 101- 111.
• Emeksiz, F., M. Albayrak., Güneş, E., Özçelik, A., Özer, O. O & K. Taştan, 2005. “Evaluation of marketing channels and tools of agricultural products in Turkey, 1155-1171”. VI Technical Congress, (3-7 January 2005, Ankara, Türkiye), 1263 pp.
• Godfrey, L. G., 1978. Testing for multiplicative heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 8: 227-236.
• Göktolga, Z. G., 2006. An analysis of import demand for meat and meat product in Turkey. Journal of Agronomy, 5 (1): 98-100.
• Gül, M., 1998. Production Costs and Producer Problems in Corn in Irrigated Areas of Yuregir District. Çukurova University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, (Unpublished) Master Thesis, Adana, 105 pp.
• Hatırlı, S. A., V. Demircan & A. R. Aktaş, 2002. Analysis of sunflower and soybean oil import demand. Akdeniz University Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, 15 (2):71-79. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akdenizfderg/issue/1586/19705.
• IGC, 2021. International Grains Council. (Web page: http://www.igc.int/downloads/gmrsummary/gmrsumme.pdf) (Date accessed: March 20, 2023).
• IHS Markit- Eviews, 2020. Eviews 12 User’s Guide. IHS Global Inc., Seal Beach, CA. Karkacıer, O., 2000. Milk and dairy products import demand analysis in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 24: 421-427.
• Karlı, B., B. A. Kadakoğlu & G. Karadağ, 2018. Effects of agricultural supports on corn agriculture in Turkey. Akademia Journal of Social Sciences, Special Issue 1 (ASM5):307-317. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/asj/issue/40224/479035.
• Kırtok, Y., H. Arıoğlu & O. Erkan, 1997. Corn Production in Turkey and Its Place in the Economy. Unpublished Report, Adana, 168 pp.
• Kızılaslan, H. & N. Kızılaslan, 2006. An analysis of import demand in vegetal oil and products industry in Turkey. Journal of Applied Science, 6 (4): 905-910.
• Kızılaslan, N., A. Z. Gürler & H. Kızılaslan, 1996. “Evaluation of cooperative partner relations in agricultural credit cooperatives in Turkey (example of Tokat Province), 383-393”. Turkey 2nd Agricultural Economics Congress, (4-6 September 1996, Cilt.2, Adana, Türkiye), 441 pp.
• Lee, J. H., W. W. Koo & M. A. Krause, 1994. Japanese Wheat Import Demand. Agricultural Economics Report No: 317, Department of Agricultural Economics Agricultural Experiment Station North Dakota State University Fargo, N. Dakota, USA, 15 pp.
• Mao, W., W. W. Koo., J. P. Suomala & T. Sakurai, 1997. Wheat Import Demand in The Japanese Flour Milling Industry: A Production Theory Approach. AAEA Annual Meetings in Toronto, Canada, 14 pp.
• Narin, M., 2008. Change in agricultural support policies implemented in Turkey. Economic Approach,19 (special issue): 183-225.
• Nogay, Y., 2019. Corn Seed Market Research and Factors Affecting Producers' Corn Seed Preferences: The Case of Sakarya Province. Tekirdağ Namik Kemal University Institute of Science and Technology, (Unpublished) Master Thesis, Tekirdağ, 187 pp.
• Ramirez, M. A., K. M. Jones., F. Arollebe & K. C. Raper, 2003. Estimating Import Demand in The Mexican Cheese Market. Staff-Paper 03-23, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA, 14 pp.
• Şahin, S., 2001. Distribution of corn planting areas and corn production in Turkey. Gazi University Journal of Gazi Education Faculty, 21 (1): 73-90. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/gefad/issue/6769/9109.
• Şimşek, M. & C. Kadılar, 2004. Cointegration analysis of Turkey's import demand function with bounds test method: 1970-2002. Doğuş University Magazine, 5 (1): 27-34.
• Soper, D., 2024. Significance of the difference between two slopes calculator. (Web page: https://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/calculator.aspx?id=103) (Date accessed: February 13, 2024).
• Tanyeri-Abur, A. & P. Rosson, 1998. Forecasting Mexican Import Demand for Dairy Products. Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas AM University, T77843-2124, FP 97.5. November, USA, 15 pp.
• Taşdan, K., 2005. Turkish Corn Market. Çukurova University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, (Unpublished) PhD Thesis, Adana, Türkiye, 213 pp.
• TCMB, 2022. Indicative Central Bank Rates. (Web page: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/kurlar_tr.html) (Date accessed: July 19, 2023).
• TEPGE, 2021. Agricultural Products Markets. Egypt, Strategy Development Presidency Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Development. (Web page: https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Belgeler/PDF%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1/Birle%C5%9Ftirilmi%C5%9F%20T%C3%9CP%20Raporlar%C4%B1/Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasa%20Raporu%202022-Temmuz%20snzip.pdf) (Date accessed: March 10, 2023).
• TEPGE, 2022. Agricultural Products Markets. Strategy Development Directorate Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute. (Web page: https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Belgeler/PDF%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1/Birle%C5%9Ftirilmi%C5%9F%20T%C3%9CP%20Raporlar%C4%B1/Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasa%20Raporu%202022-Temmuz%20snzip.pdf) (Date accessed: March 13, 2023).
• TEPGE, 2024. Agricultural Products Markets. Strategy Development Directorate Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute. (Web page: https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Belgeler/PDF%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1/2024-Temmuz%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Raporu/Bu%C4%9Fday%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1%20Raporu%20Temmuz-2024-v4.pdf) (Date accessed: July 29, 2024).
• Tezel, Y. S., 2015. Economic History of the Republican Era 1923-1950. Türkiye İş Bankası Cultural Publications, İstanbul, 712 pp.
• TMO, 2021. Year 2020 Cereals Sector Report. (Web page: Retrieved on March 18, 2023 from https://www.tmo.gov.tr/Upload/Document/istatistikler/Çizelgelar/5misireuva.pdf.
• TMO, 2022. Year 2022 Cereals Sector Report. (Web page: https://www.tmo.gov.tr/Upload/Document/alim/2022/hubmudalimfyt.pdf) (Date accessed: March 23, 2023)
• TMO, 2024. Agricultural Products Markets. Strategy Development Directorate Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute. (Web page: https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Belgeler/PDF%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1/2024Temmuz%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Raporu/Bu%C4%9Fday%20Tar%C4%B1m%20%C3%9Cr%C3%BCnleri%20Piyasalar%C4%B1%20Raporu%20Temmuz-2024-v4.pdf) (Date accessed: July 29, 2024).
• TUIK, 2022. Vegetable Production Amount. (Web page: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Bitkisel-Uretim-Istatistikleri-2022-45504) (Date accessed: March 18, 2023).
• Tuna, Y., 1989. State intervention in prices of agricultural products and history of intervention price policy in Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Economics, 47: 345-365.
• Tuna, Y., 2011. State intervention in prices of agricultural products and history of intervention price policy in Turkey. Istanbul University Faculty of Economics Journal, 47 (1-4). https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuifm/issue/837/9250.
• Uzunöz, M. & Y. Akçay, 2009. Factors affecting the import demand of wheat in Turkey. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 15 (1): 60-66.
• Valencia-Romero, R., J. C. Trejo-García & H. Ríos-Bolívar, 2023. Wheat import demand in Mexico: evidence of quantile cointegration. Agriculture, 13 (5): 980.
• Yaşa, S. & İ. Kutlar, 2019. Investigation of information sources and marketing problems of corn producers in Diyarbakir Province. Mediterranean Agricultural Sciences, 32 (2): 167-173. https://doi.org/ 10.29136/Mediterranean.564396.