2010 Sonrasında Orta Doğu'da Değişen Bölgesel Düzende Hamas-FKÖ/Fetih Uzlaşısı ve Yakınlaşması: Neo-Realist ve Neo-Klasik Realist Bir Değerlendirme

Year 2018, , 621 - 631, 13.04.2018

Philipp O. Amour

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.384773

Abstract

Bu
makale iki ana soruya değinmektedir. Birincisi, 2010 yılından itibaren bölgesel
dinamikler ve iç tercihler, Filistin uzlaşısını ve yakınlaşmasını nasıl
etkiledi (sınırlandırdı ya da zorladı)? İkincisi,  realist teori, Hamas ve El-Fetih’in uzlaşı ve
yakınlaşma konusundaki tercihlerinde ortaya çıkan benzerlikleri ve
farklılıkları anlamada bize yardımcı olur mu? 2011 yılından beri, Ortadoğudaki
baskın devletler, hesapları ve kontrolleri ötesinde rekabet içerisindeki güçler
ve büyük güç elde etmeye çalışan devletler ile devlet-dışı aktörlere yönelik
tepkisel ve proaktif bir tutum sergilemektedir. Devlet dışı aktörler olan Hamas
ve El-Fetih’in tepki gösterdiği anlaşmazlık, kendilerinin politik tercihlerine
ve stratejilerine de işaret eden bölgesel dinamiklerin sınırlamaları ve
fırsatlarına ilişkin bakış açılarındaki farklılıklara işaret eden önemli
tedbirler/önlemler üzerinedir. Bu makale, özellikle sistemik ve iç faktörlerin
karşılıklı etkileşiminin, iki rakip hareketi ulusal birliğin sağlanması
noktasında oldukça farklı yörüngelere yerleştirdiği sonucuna varmaktadır. Bu
bağlamda, her iki realist akım (neo-realizm ve neo-klasik realizm), farklı
açıklama kapasitesi/fırsatları ile birlikte teorik çerçeve olarak uygun
görünmektedir.

Keywords

Fetih, Hamas, Filistin, Arap Baharı, Realizm

Hamas-PLO/Fatah Reconciliation and Rapprochement within the Unfolding Regional Order in the Middle East since 2010: Neorealist and Neoclassical Realist Perspectives

Abstract

This article addresses two main questions.
First, how have regional dynamics and domestic pathologies since 2010 affected
(i.e., constrained or delimited) Palestinian reconciliation and rapprochement?
Second, can the realist theory of international relations (IR) help us
understand the differences or similarities observed in Hamas’s and Fatah’s
preferences for reconciliation and rapprochement? Since the turn of the decade,
dominant states in the Middle East have become reactive (and proactive) toward
state and non-state actors; they have become inclined to react to power
magnitude and forces of competition beyond their calculations and control. The
differential reactions of both non-state actors, Fatah and Hamas, is due in
substantial measure to marked differences in the windows of opportunity, and
constraints on regional dynamics that have affected their policy preferences
and strategies. This article concludes that the interplay of systemic and
domestic factors has notably set the two rival movements on distinctly
different trajectories of national unity. In this sense, both streams of
realism (neorealism and neoclassical realism) seem appropriate as theoretical
frameworks, albeit with different explanatory power/opportunities.   

Keywords

Fatah, Hamas, Arab Spring, Reconciliation, Realism

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