Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

The Relationship between Terror, Economic Growth and Young Unemployment: Panel VAR Analysis

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 697 - 719, 18.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.841210

Abstract

References

  • Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93(1), 113-132.
  • Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2008). Terrorism and the world economy. European Economic Review, 52(1), 1-27.
  • Akhmat, G., Zaman, K., Shukui, T., & Sajjad, F. (2014). Exploring the root causes of terrorism in South Asia: everybody should be concerned. Quality & Quantity, 48(6), 3065-3079.
  • Al-Sawaiea, K. M. The Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Jordan: An Empirical Study using the ARDL Approach.
  • Altay, H., Ekinci, A., & Peçe, M. A. (2013). Ortadoğu'da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır Ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (37).
  • Arı, A. (2016). Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 58-64.
  • Bagchi, A., & Paul, J. A. (2018). Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 64, 9-20.
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, edited by 4th Ed., John Wiley and Sons.
  • Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. In The economic dimensions of crime (pp. 13-68). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Berrebi, C. (2007). Evidence about the link between education, poverty and terrorism among Palestinians. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 13(1), 18-53.
  • Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., & Orphanides, A. (2004). The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 1007-1032.
  • Buesa, M., Valiño, A., Heijs, J., Baumert, T., & Gomez, J. G. (2007). The Economic Cost of March 11: Measuring the direct economic cost of the terrorist attack on March 11, 2004 in Madrid. Terrorism and Political Violence, 19(4), 489-509.
  • Brandt, P. T., & Sandler, T. (2009). Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(5), 758-778.
  • Canova, F., & Ciccarelli, M. (2013). Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. In VAR Models in Macroeconomics–New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims (pp. 205-246). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Caruso, R., & Gavrilova, E. (2012). Youth unemployment, terrorism and political violence, evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 18(2).
  • Caruso, R., & Schneider, F. (2011). The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007). European Journal of Political Economy, 27, S37-S49.
  • Drakos, K., & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621-641.
  • Eckstein, Z., & Tsiddon, D. (2004). Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 971-1002.
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1), 49-58.
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1996). Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece. Kyklos, 49(3), 331-352.
  • Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Parise, G. F. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), 531-554. Evans, G. W. (1989). Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4(3), 213-237.
  • Filer, R. K., & Stanišić, D. (2016). The effect of terrorist incidents on capital flows. Review of Development Economics, 20(2), 502-513.
  • Frey, B. S., Luechinger, S., & Stutzer, A. (2007). Calculating tragedy: Assessing the costs of terrorism. Journal of Economic Surveys, 21(1), 1-24.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & Newbold, P. (1974), Spurious regression in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Goldstein, K. B. (2005). Unemployment, inequality and terrorism: Another look at the relationship between economics and terrorism. Undergraduate Economic Review, 1(1), 6.
  • Guloglu, B., & Bayar, G. (2016). Sectoral exports dynamics of Turkey: Evidence from panel data estimators. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(7), 959-977.
  • Haldar, T. (2013). Understanding Terrorism from an Economic perspective.
  • Hyslop, D., & Morgan, T. (2014). Measuring terrorism with the global terrorism index. In Understanding Terrorism. Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Honaker, J. (2010). Unemployment and violence in Northern Ireland: a missing data model for ecological inference. Retrieved February, 10, 2011.
  • Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2011). What causes terrorism?. Public Choice, 147(1-2), 3-27.
  • Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E., & Porter, B. (2003). Assessing, managing, and financing extreme events: Dealing with terrorism (No. w10179). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Malik, Z., & Zaman, K. (2013). Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1103-1123.
  • Meierrieks, D., & Gries, T. (2012). Economic performance and terrorist activity in Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), 447-470.
  • Oyefusi, A. (2010). Oil, youths, and civil unrest in Nigeria’s Delta: The role of schooling, educational attainments, earnings, and unemployment. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(4), 326-346.
  • Özgen, F. B., & Güloglu, B. (2004). Türkiye'de ic borclarin iktisadi etkilerinin VAR Teknigiyle analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31(1), 93.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007), A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008), A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Piazza, J. A. (2006). Rooted in poverty?: Terrorism, poor economic development, and social cleavages. Terrorism and political Violence, 18(1), 159-177.
  • Reinares, F. (2004). Who are the terrorists? Analyzing changes in sociological profile among members of ETA. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 27(6), 465-488.
  • Schomaker, R. (2013). Youth bulges, poor institutional quality and missing migration opportunities-triggers of and potential counter-measures for terrorism in MENA. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 15(1), 116-140.
  • Sandler, T. ve Enders, W. (2004). Ulusötesi terörizme ekonomik bir bakış. Avrupa Politik Ekonomi Dergisi, 20 (2), 301-316.
  • Sayre, E. A. (2009). Labor market conditions, political events, and Palestinian suicide bombings. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 15(1), 1-26.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1-48.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017). Panel zaman serileri analizi. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Tavares, J. (2004). The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 1039-1070.
  • Urdal, H. (2006). A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence. International studies quarterly, 50(3), 607-629.
  • Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2013). Analysing the determinants of terrorism in Turkey using geographically weighted regression. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 195-209.

Terör, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Genç İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Panel VAR Analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 697 - 719, 18.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.841210

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2003-2018 döneminde terörden en çok etkilenen 11 ülkede (Afganistan, Pakistan, Mısır, Hindistan, Türkiye, Irak, Yemen, Nijerya, Filipinler, Libya, İsrail) terör, büyüme ve genç işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Çalışmada, yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan CADF panel birim kök testi ile değişkenlerin durağanlık sınaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmak için Panel VAR ve Panel Granger Nedensellik analizleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, genç işsizliğin büyümeye göre terörden daha fazla etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. İlaveten, terörden genç işsizliğe, doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu sebeple genç işsizlik oranında yapılacak iyileştirmelerin terör faaliyetlerini azaltabileceği belirtilmektedir.

References

  • Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93(1), 113-132.
  • Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2008). Terrorism and the world economy. European Economic Review, 52(1), 1-27.
  • Akhmat, G., Zaman, K., Shukui, T., & Sajjad, F. (2014). Exploring the root causes of terrorism in South Asia: everybody should be concerned. Quality & Quantity, 48(6), 3065-3079.
  • Al-Sawaiea, K. M. The Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Jordan: An Empirical Study using the ARDL Approach.
  • Altay, H., Ekinci, A., & Peçe, M. A. (2013). Ortadoğu'da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır Ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (37).
  • Arı, A. (2016). Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 58-64.
  • Bagchi, A., & Paul, J. A. (2018). Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 64, 9-20.
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, edited by 4th Ed., John Wiley and Sons.
  • Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. In The economic dimensions of crime (pp. 13-68). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Berrebi, C. (2007). Evidence about the link between education, poverty and terrorism among Palestinians. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 13(1), 18-53.
  • Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., & Orphanides, A. (2004). The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 1007-1032.
  • Buesa, M., Valiño, A., Heijs, J., Baumert, T., & Gomez, J. G. (2007). The Economic Cost of March 11: Measuring the direct economic cost of the terrorist attack on March 11, 2004 in Madrid. Terrorism and Political Violence, 19(4), 489-509.
  • Brandt, P. T., & Sandler, T. (2009). Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(5), 758-778.
  • Canova, F., & Ciccarelli, M. (2013). Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. In VAR Models in Macroeconomics–New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims (pp. 205-246). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Caruso, R., & Gavrilova, E. (2012). Youth unemployment, terrorism and political violence, evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Peace economics, peace science and public policy, 18(2).
  • Caruso, R., & Schneider, F. (2011). The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007). European Journal of Political Economy, 27, S37-S49.
  • Drakos, K., & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621-641.
  • Eckstein, Z., & Tsiddon, D. (2004). Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 971-1002.
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1), 49-58.
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1996). Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece. Kyklos, 49(3), 331-352.
  • Enders, W., Sandler, T., & Parise, G. F. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), 531-554. Evans, G. W. (1989). Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4(3), 213-237.
  • Filer, R. K., & Stanišić, D. (2016). The effect of terrorist incidents on capital flows. Review of Development Economics, 20(2), 502-513.
  • Frey, B. S., Luechinger, S., & Stutzer, A. (2007). Calculating tragedy: Assessing the costs of terrorism. Journal of Economic Surveys, 21(1), 1-24.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & Newbold, P. (1974), Spurious regression in econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Goldstein, K. B. (2005). Unemployment, inequality and terrorism: Another look at the relationship between economics and terrorism. Undergraduate Economic Review, 1(1), 6.
  • Guloglu, B., & Bayar, G. (2016). Sectoral exports dynamics of Turkey: Evidence from panel data estimators. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(7), 959-977.
  • Haldar, T. (2013). Understanding Terrorism from an Economic perspective.
  • Hyslop, D., & Morgan, T. (2014). Measuring terrorism with the global terrorism index. In Understanding Terrorism. Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Honaker, J. (2010). Unemployment and violence in Northern Ireland: a missing data model for ecological inference. Retrieved February, 10, 2011.
  • Krieger, T., & Meierrieks, D. (2011). What causes terrorism?. Public Choice, 147(1-2), 3-27.
  • Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E., & Porter, B. (2003). Assessing, managing, and financing extreme events: Dealing with terrorism (No. w10179). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Malik, Z., & Zaman, K. (2013). Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1103-1123.
  • Meierrieks, D., & Gries, T. (2012). Economic performance and terrorist activity in Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(5), 447-470.
  • Oyefusi, A. (2010). Oil, youths, and civil unrest in Nigeria’s Delta: The role of schooling, educational attainments, earnings, and unemployment. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(4), 326-346.
  • Özgen, F. B., & Güloglu, B. (2004). Türkiye'de ic borclarin iktisadi etkilerinin VAR Teknigiyle analizi. METU Studies in Development, 31(1), 93.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2007), A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008), A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Piazza, J. A. (2006). Rooted in poverty?: Terrorism, poor economic development, and social cleavages. Terrorism and political Violence, 18(1), 159-177.
  • Reinares, F. (2004). Who are the terrorists? Analyzing changes in sociological profile among members of ETA. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 27(6), 465-488.
  • Schomaker, R. (2013). Youth bulges, poor institutional quality and missing migration opportunities-triggers of and potential counter-measures for terrorism in MENA. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 15(1), 116-140.
  • Sandler, T. ve Enders, W. (2004). Ulusötesi terörizme ekonomik bir bakış. Avrupa Politik Ekonomi Dergisi, 20 (2), 301-316.
  • Sayre, E. A. (2009). Labor market conditions, political events, and Palestinian suicide bombings. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 15(1), 1-26.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1-48.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017). Panel zaman serileri analizi. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Tavares, J. (2004). The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks. Journal of monetary economics, 51(5), 1039-1070.
  • Urdal, H. (2006). A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence. International studies quarterly, 50(3), 607-629.
  • Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2013). Analysing the determinants of terrorism in Turkey using geographically weighted regression. Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 195-209.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Serhat Alpağut 0000-0001-7326-4048

Publication Date April 18, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 35 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Alpağut, S. (2021). Terör, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Genç İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki: Panel VAR Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), 697-719. https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.841210

4aoDA4.pngithenticate-badge-rec-positive.png800px-Open-Access-PLoS.svg.png