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Year 2015, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 351 - 362, 10.11.2015

Munise Ilıkkan Özgür

Abstract

Sustainability of the current account balance of a country is one of the main indicators of macroeconomic stability. Unsustainable foreign trade deficit gives rise to unsustainable current account deficit in the long run. Existence of a long-run relationship between export and import means that the short run foreign trade deficit is sustainable in the long-run and macroeconomic policies are effective for the provision of the long-run foreign trade balance. In this paper we aim to investigate the sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey by examining the long-run relationship between export and import for the period 1980-2014. The long-run cointegration relationship between export and import are tested by the ARDL bound testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). According to the results, although there is a long-run relationship between export and import and the current account deficit are sustainable in a strong form, there is a strong belief that the sustainability of current account deficit tend to turn into the weak form in near future

Keywords

Sustainability of current account deficit cointegration export import

References

  • Açıkgöz Ş. ve A. Akçağlayan. (2014). “Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebi- lirliği”. Ege Akademik Bakış, cilt:14, sayı:1, ss. 83-97.
  • Arize, A.C. 2002. “Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks”. International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 11, pp. 101- 115.
  • Ceylan, R. ve İ. Çeviş. (2012). ”Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejimi Öncesi ve Sonrasında Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği”. e-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, vol. 7, no. 4, 259-276.
  • Bahmani-Oskoee, M. and Domaç, I. (1995) “The Long-Run Relations Between Imports and Exports in an LDC: Evidence from Turkey”. METU Studies in Develop- ment, 22(2):177-189.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and H.R. Ree. (1997). "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?". International Economi Journal, vol. 11, 109-114.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1994). "Are Imports and Exports of Australia Cointegrated?". Journal of Economic Integration, 9(4), 525-533.
  • Çelik, T. (2011). “Long Run Relationship Between Export and Import: Evidence from Turkey for The Period of 1990-2010”. International Conference on Applied Economics– ICOAE, 119-123.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger C. W. J. (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”. Econometrica 55: 251-256.
  • Erbaykal E ve Karaca O. (2008). “Is Turkey's Foreign Deficit Sustainable? Cointegration Relationship Between Exports and Imports”. International Research Journal Finance and Economics, 14: 177-181.
  • Hussein, J. (2014). “Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nine MENA Countries”. Applied Econometrics and International Development ,vol. 14-1, pp. 123-132.
  • Husted, S. (1992) “The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 159-166.
  • Irandoust, M. and Ericsson, J. (2004). “Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison”. Metroeconomica, 55(1), 49-64.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2),169-209.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2005). “Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach”. MPRA Paper, January, 1220, 1-10.
  • Narayan P.K. and Narayan S. (2005). “Is there A Long Relationship Between Exports and Imports? Evidence FromTwo Pacific Island Countries”. EconomicsPapers, vol.12, pp. 152-164.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005). “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. Applied Economics, February, vol. 37, pp.1979- 1990.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004) “Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-Statistic Approach to Cointegration: An Application to The Tourism Demand Model for Fiji” Monash University, Department of Economics Discussion Paper, no:02/04.
  • Polat, Ö. (2011). “Sustainability of The Current AccountDeficit in Turkey”. African Journal of Business Management, January, vol. 5(2), 577-581.
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford UniversityPress.
  • Pesaran, M.H.,Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 2 89-326.
  • Phillips, P. C., and P. Perron. (1988). “Testing for a Uni Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrica, 75, pp. 335-344.
  • Tang, T.C. and Mohammad A.H. (2005). “Are Imports and Exports of OIC Countries Cointegrated? An Ampirical Study”. Labuan Bulletin of International Business and Finance, vol. 3, pp.33-47.
  • Tang, T. C. (2006). Are Imports and Exports in the OIC Member Countries Cointegrated? A Re- examination”. IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, 14 (1), 1-31.
  • Utkulu, U. (1998). “Are The Turkish External Deficits Sustainable? Evidence from the Cointegrating Relationship Between Exports and Imports”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1),119- 132.

Cari İşlemler Açığı ve Sürdürülebilirlik: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2015, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 351 - 362, 10.11.2015

Munise Ilıkkan Özgür

Abstract

Makroekonomik istikrarının sağlanmasında cari işlemler dengesinin sürdürülebilir olması temel koşullardan biridir. Sürdürülemez dış ticaret açıkları sonucu zaman
içinde sürdürülemez cari işlemler açıkları ortaya çıkar. Bir ülkede ithalat ve ihracat
arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olması; kısa dönemli dış ticaret açıklarının uzun dönemde
sürdürülebilir olduğunu ve uzun dönem dış ticaret dengesinin sağlanmasına yönelik uygulanan
makroekonomik politikaların etkin olduğunu gösterir. Çalışmamızda, ihracat ve
ithalat arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiden hareketle; 1980-2014 dönemindeki Türkiye’de
cari iş­lemler açığının sürdürülebilirliği incelenmektedir. İhracat ile ithalat arasında
uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Pesaran, Shin, ve Smith (2001) tarafından geliştirilen
ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları ihracat ile ithalat
arasında uzun dönemli denge ilişkisi bulun­duğuna ve sürdürülebilirliğin güçlü formda
olduğuna işaret etmekle beraber; gittikçe artan dış ticaret açıkları göz önüne alınırsa,
gelecekte cari işlemler açıklarının zayıf formda sürdürülebilirliğe dönüşeceği yönünde
güçlü bir kanı oluşmasına yol açmıştır.

Keywords

Cari işlemler açığının sürdürebilirliği eşbütünleşme ihracat ithalat

References

  • Açıkgöz Ş. ve A. Akçağlayan. (2014). “Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebi- lirliği”. Ege Akademik Bakış, cilt:14, sayı:1, ss. 83-97.
  • Arize, A.C. 2002. “Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks”. International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 11, pp. 101- 115.
  • Ceylan, R. ve İ. Çeviş. (2012). ”Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejimi Öncesi ve Sonrasında Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği”. e-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, vol. 7, no. 4, 259-276.
  • Bahmani-Oskoee, M. and Domaç, I. (1995) “The Long-Run Relations Between Imports and Exports in an LDC: Evidence from Turkey”. METU Studies in Develop- ment, 22(2):177-189.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and H.R. Ree. (1997). "Are Imports and Exports of Korea Cointegrated?". International Economi Journal, vol. 11, 109-114.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1994). "Are Imports and Exports of Australia Cointegrated?". Journal of Economic Integration, 9(4), 525-533.
  • Çelik, T. (2011). “Long Run Relationship Between Export and Import: Evidence from Turkey for The Period of 1990-2010”. International Conference on Applied Economics– ICOAE, 119-123.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger C. W. J. (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”. Econometrica 55: 251-256.
  • Erbaykal E ve Karaca O. (2008). “Is Turkey's Foreign Deficit Sustainable? Cointegration Relationship Between Exports and Imports”. International Research Journal Finance and Economics, 14: 177-181.
  • Hussein, J. (2014). “Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nine MENA Countries”. Applied Econometrics and International Development ,vol. 14-1, pp. 123-132.
  • Husted, S. (1992) “The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 159-166.
  • Irandoust, M. and Ericsson, J. (2004). “Are Imports and Exports Cointegrated? An International Comparison”. Metroeconomica, 55(1), 49-64.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2),169-209.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2005). “Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach”. MPRA Paper, January, 1220, 1-10.
  • Narayan P.K. and Narayan S. (2005). “Is there A Long Relationship Between Exports and Imports? Evidence FromTwo Pacific Island Countries”. EconomicsPapers, vol.12, pp. 152-164.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005). “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. Applied Economics, February, vol. 37, pp.1979- 1990.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004) “Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-Statistic Approach to Cointegration: An Application to The Tourism Demand Model for Fiji” Monash University, Department of Economics Discussion Paper, no:02/04.
  • Polat, Ö. (2011). “Sustainability of The Current AccountDeficit in Turkey”. African Journal of Business Management, January, vol. 5(2), 577-581.
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford UniversityPress.
  • Pesaran, M.H.,Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 2 89-326.
  • Phillips, P. C., and P. Perron. (1988). “Testing for a Uni Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrica, 75, pp. 335-344.
  • Tang, T.C. and Mohammad A.H. (2005). “Are Imports and Exports of OIC Countries Cointegrated? An Ampirical Study”. Labuan Bulletin of International Business and Finance, vol. 3, pp.33-47.
  • Tang, T. C. (2006). Are Imports and Exports in the OIC Member Countries Cointegrated? A Re- examination”. IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, 14 (1), 1-31.
  • Utkulu, U. (1998). “Are The Turkish External Deficits Sustainable? Evidence from the Cointegrating Relationship Between Exports and Imports”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1),119- 132.
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Munise Ilıkkan Özgür This is me

Publication Date November 10, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 19 Issue: 2

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APA Ilıkkan Özgür, M. (2015). Cari İşlemler Açığı ve Sürdürülebilirlik: Türkiye Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 19(2), 351-362.
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