Nüfus, Yaşam Beklentisi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Yöntemi ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Nüfus artışı bir ülke ekonomisi üzerinde önemli etkiye sahiptir. Nüfus artışı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin önemi hem büyüme teorisyenlerince hem de kalkınma iktisatçıları tarafından kabul edilmektedir. Ancak nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye yönelik literatürde tam bir görüş birliği sağlanamamıştır. Bu konuda üç farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. Bazı araştırmacılar nüfusun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu savunurken diğerleri etkinin olumsuz olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Bazı çalışmalarda ise iki değişken arasında ilişki bulunamamıştır. Bu makalede, nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki yaşam beklentisi, enflasyon ve sermaye oluşumu değişkenleri de dahil ederek Türkiye örneğinden hareketle 1968-2019 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi analizi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, Türkiye’de nüfus kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilerken uzun dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir. Yaşam beklentisi ve sermaye oluşumu büyümeyi kısa ve uzun dönemde pozitif etkilerken enflasyon değişkeni uzun dönemde negatif etkiye sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nüfus
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Yaşam Beklentisi
• Enflasyon
• ARDL

Analysis of the Relationship between Population, Life Expectancy, and Economic Growth with ARDL Method: The Case of Turkey

Öz

Population growth has a significant impact on a country's economy. The importance of the relationship between population growth and economic growth is accepted by both growth theorists and development economists. However, the literature has no consensus on the relationship between population and economic growth. There are three different views on this issue. Some researchers argue that population positively affects economic growth, while others argue that the effect is negative. In some studies, no correlation was found between these two variables. In this article, the long-term and short-term correlation between population and economic growth, including life expectancy, inflation, and capital formation variables, is analyzed with ARDL bounds test analysis using annual data for the period 1968-2019, based on the case of Turkey. According to the research findings, while the population in Turkey affects economic growth negatively in the short term, it has a positive effect in the long term. The life expectancy and capital formation affect economic growth positively in the short and long run but the inflation variable has a negative effect in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Population
• Economic Growth
• Life Expectancy
• Inflation
• ARDL

Kaynakça

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