Analysis of Factors Influencing Individuals' Probability of Smoking in Turkey: A Random-Effects Ordered Probit Model

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to understand the relationship between the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of families or family members and the likelihood of smoking. Material and Method: In this analysis, data from the 2019 Turkey Health Survey (THS) conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) were utilized, encompassing information from 8,166 households and 17,000 individuals. Initially, the determinants affecting the smoking behavior of families or individuals were identified. Subsequently, these factors' marginal effects were computed and explicated utilizing a random-effects ordered probit model. Results: The research identified that family members or families with lower education levels, males, those engaged in physically demanding occupations, and individuals with medium to high incomes are more inclined towards smoking. Daily walking practice carries a positive impact on limiting smoking habits, with a tendency to reduce the likelihood of consuming one or more packs of cigarettes by 2.83 points. Conclusion: Decision-makers can collaborate with all stakeholders to create a specialized tobacco control strategy that targets all individuals, regardless of their economic levels, educational backgrounds, geographic regions, and socioeconomic statuses.

Keywords

• Cohort
• households
• individuals
• ordered probit model
• random-effects
• smoking

Türkiye'de Bireylerin Sigara Tüketim Olasılığını Belirleyen Faktörlerin Analizi: Rasgele-Etki Sıralı Probit Modeli

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma, ailelerin veya aile bireylerinin sosyo-demografik ve ekonomik özellikleri ile sigara tüketme olasılığı arasındaki ilişkiyi anlamayı amaçlamıştır. Materyal ve Yöntem: Analizde, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından oluşturulan 2019 Türkiye Sağlık Araştırmasından (TSA) elde edilen 8166 hane ve 17000 bireyin verisi kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle ailelerin veya bireylerin sigara içmelerini etkileyen faktörler belirlenmiş, daha sonra bu faktörlerin marjinal etkileri rasgele-etki sıralı probit modeli kullanılarak hesaplanmış ve yorumlanmıştır. Araştırma Bulguları: Araştırmada aile üyeleri veya ailelerden, düşük eğitime sahip olanların, erkeklerin, fiziksel güç gerektiren mesleklerde çalışanların ile orta ve yüksek gelire sahip olanların sigara tüketimine daha fazla yatkın oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Günlük yürüyüş pratiği, sigara tüketimini sınırlamaya yönelik olumlu bir etki taşımakla birlikte, günde bir veya daha fazla paket sigara tüketme olasılığını 2.83 puan düşürme eğilimi sergilemektedir. Sonuç: Karar vericiler, tüm paydaşlarla işbirliği içinde, ekonomik seviyeleri, eğitim düzeyleri, coğrafi bölgeler ve sosyoekonomik durumları fark etmeksizin tüm bireyleri hedefleyen özel bir sigara kontrolü stratejisi oluşturabilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hane halkı
• birey
• kohort
• rasgele-etki sıralı probit modeli
• sigara içmek

References

1. Aksoy, A., Bilgic. A., Yen, S. T., & Urak, F. (2019). Determinants of Household Alcohol and Tobacco Expenditures in Turkey. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 40, 609–622.
2. Alkan, Ö., & Abar, H. (2020). Determination of factors influencing tobacco consumption in Turkey using categorical data analyses1. Archives of environmental & occupational health, 75(1), 27-35.
3. Ali, A., & Bilgic. A. (2016). Factors in fluencing on cigarette consumption in Turkey: A double-hurdle censored model with pooled data. In Paper presented at the 12th National Agricultural Economics Meeting, Isparta, Turkey.
4. Auriacombe, M., Moriceau, S., Serre, F., Denis, C., Micoulaud-Franchi, J. A., de Sevin, E., ... & Philip, P. (2018). Development and validation of a virtual agent to screen tobacco and alcohol use disorders. Drug and alcohol dependence, 193, 1-6.
5. Azagba, S., Manzione, L., Shan, L., & King, J. (2020). Trends in Smoking Behaviors Among US Adolescent Cigarette Smokers. Pediatrics, 145(3), e20193047.
6. Baygutalp, F., Baygutalp, N.K., Urak, F., & Bilgic, A. (2023). Determining the Relationship Between Distinct Obesity Prevalence Groups and Risk Factors By Panel Random-Effect Ordered Probit Model in Turkey. International Journal of PharmATA, 3(2), 41-49.
7. Bentley, R., Baker, E., Martino, E., Li, Y., & Mason, K. (2021). Alcohol and tobacco consumption: What is the role of economic security? Society for the Study of Addiction, 116, 1882–1891.
8. Berlin, I., Thomas, D., Le Faou, A.L., & Cornuz, J. (2020). COVID-19 and smoking. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 22(9), 1650-1652.

9. Bilgic, A., Florkowski, W. J., & Akbay, C. (2010). Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models. Empirical Economics, 39, 733-765.
10. Bilgic, A., & Yen, S. T. (2015). Household alcohol and tobacco expenditures in Turkey: a sample‐selection system approach. Contemporary Economic Policy, 33(3), 571-585.
11. da Costa e Silva, V. L. (2019). Foreword by the Secretariat of the WHO Framework Conventi on on Tobacco Control. Tobacco Control, 28, 79-80.
12. Demir, N., Bilgic, A., Demir, O., & Aksoy, A. (2020). Health-related factors on tobacco consumption in Turkey. Ciência Rural, 50.
13. Fakili, F., Taylan, M., Dogru, S., & Al-Haithamy, S. (2023). Prevalence of smoking among medical students and associated factors in Turkey. Journal of Substance Use, 1-7.
14. Fauzi, R., & Pongpanich, S. (2022). The effect of price on cigarette consumption among youth in Indonesia: Implications for tobacco tax policy. World Medical & Health Policy, 14(4), 665-678.
15. Fernando, H. N., Wimaladasa, I. T. P., Sathkoralage, A. N., Ariyadasa, A. N., Udeni, C., Galgamuwa, L. S., ... & Kumarasinghe, N. (2019). Socioeconomic factors associated with tobacco smoking among adult males in Sri Lanka. BMC public health, 19(1), 1-8.
16. Goodchild, M., Nargis, N., & d'Espaignet, E. T. (2018). Global economic cost of smoking-attributable diseases. Tobacco control, 27(1), 58-64.
17. Kasteridis, P., & Yen, S. T. (2014). Occasional smoking and body weight among adults. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 36(3), 479-503.
18. Kuru Sönmez, Ö., Yakut, E., & Çankal, A. (2022). Factors affecting smoking: the case of students of a university in Turkey. Journal of Substance Use, 1-7.
19. Küçük, N., Urak, F., Bilgic, A., Florkowski, W. J., Kiani, A.K., & Özdemir, F. N. (2023). Fruit and vegetable consumption across population segments: evidence from a national household survey. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 42(1), 1-20.
20. Nemati, S., Rafei, A., Freedman, N. D., Fotouhi, A., Asgary, F., & Zendehdel, K. (2017). Cigarette and water-pipe use in Iran: Geographical distribution and time trends among the adult population; a pooled analysis of national STEPS surveys, 2006–2009. Archives of Iranian Medicine, 20(5), 295–301.
21. Ng, M., Freeman, M. K., Fleming, T. D., Robinson, M., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Thomson, B., ... & Gakidou, E. (2014). Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012. Jama, 311(2), 183-192.
22. Pachanee, C. A., Lim, L., Bain, C., Wibulpolprasert, S., Seubsman, S. A., & Sleigh, A. (2011). Smoking behavior among 84 315 open-university students in Thailand. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 23(4), 544–554.
23. Paleti, R., & Bhat, C. R. (2013). The composite marginal likelihood (CML) estimation of panel ordered-response models. Journal of Choice Modelling, 7, 24-43.
24. Panahi, R., Ramezankhani, A., Tavousi, M., Koosehloo, A., &Niknami, S. (2022). Relationship of health literacy with knowledge and attitude toward the harms of cigarette smoking among university students. Journal of Education and Community Health, 3(4), 38–44.
25. Perera, K. M. N., Guruge, G. D., & Jayawardana, P. L. (2017). Household Expenditure on Tobacco Consumption in a Poverty-Stricken Rural District in Sri Lanka. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 29(2), 140-148.
26. Reitsma, M. B., Fullman, N., Ng, M., Salama, J. S., Abajobir, A., Abate, K. H., ... & Patton, G. C. (2017). Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet, 389(10082), 1885-1906.
27. Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2020). Causes of Death. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death.
28. Safari-Faramani, R., Yahyavi Dizaj, J., Amini, S., Parvari, A., Irandost, K., Arefi, Z., & Kazem-Karyani, A. (2023). Prevalence and intensity of cigarette smoking in Iranian households: measurement of socioeconomic inequality. Journal of Substance Use, 1-12.
29. Urak, F. (2023). Research on Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Drinks and 100% Fruit Juice. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(4), 901-921.
30. Wamamili, B., Wallace-Bell, M., Richardson, A., Grace, R. C., & Coope, P. (2021). Associations of history of mental illness with smoking and vaping among university students aged 18–24 years in New Zealand: Results of a 2018 national cross-sectional survey. Addictive Behaviors, 112.
31. World Health Organization., (WHO) 2019e. Tobacco, 26 July 2019. Fact Sheet Detail. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco
32. World Health Organization., (WHO) 2020b. Tobacco, Health Topics, Overview. https://www.who.int/health-topics/tobacco
33. Xu, X., Bishop, E. E., Kennedy, S. M., Simpson, S. A., & Pechacek, T. F. (2015). Annual healthcare spending attributable to cigarette smoking: an update. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 48(3), 326-333.