Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde İşsizlik ve Suç İlişkisi: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 34, 465 - 484, 13.09.2019

Fatih Ayhan , Nurbanu Bursa

https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.574808

Cited By: 4

Öz

İşsizlik, sosyal ve ekonomik maliyet boyutlarından dolayı birçok ekonomi için hayati ve kronik bir sorundur. Ekonomilerin potansiyel üretim seviyelerinin altında üretim yapmasına neden olan işsizlik sorunu, bir takım sosyal sorunlara da yol açabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada işsizliğin suç oranlarını etkileyip etkilemediği araştırılmıştır. İşsizliğin AB-28'deki suç oranlarına etkisi 1993-2016 dönemi için incelenmiş ve veri seti Dünya Bankası ve Eurostat kaynaklarından elde edilmiştir. İşsizlik ve suç arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çok sayıda çalışma var. Ancak, bu çalışma ile hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerden oluşan AB-28'de bu ilişkinin analiz edilmesinin, tüm ekonomiler için işsizlik ve suç oranları arasındaki ilişki hakkında genel bilgi sağlayacağı değerlendirilmektedir. Ek olarak, çalışmanın çağdaş yöntem ve veri setleri ile gerçekleştirilmiş olması, konuyla ilgili güncel analiz bulguları sağlamaktadır.

Bu çalışmada, işsizlik ve suç oranları ile ülkeler arasındaki karşılıklı bağımlılık ilişkisini analiz etmek için AB-28'de ikinci nesil panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiş ve nedensellik ilişkisi Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Westerlund Eşbütünleşme Testi’nin bulguları, işsizlik oranı ile suç oranları arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçları, nedensellik ilişkisinin işsizlikten suç oranlarına kadar olduğunu ortaya koydu. Panel Dinamik En Küçük Kareler yöntemi ile elde edilen sonuçlar, model katsayıları, işsizlik oranlarındaki artışın suç oranlarını olumlu yönde etkilediğini doğrulamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, işsizliğin azaltılmasıyla mücadeleye yönelik tedbirler, AB-28 ülkelerinde olduğu gibi, suç oranlarında da bir düşüş sağlayabilir, bu aynı zamanda suç oranlarının düşürülmesiyle toplumların daha güvenli ve daha refah olacağını da doğrular.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizlik, Suç, Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Avrupa Birliği

Unemployment and Crime Nexus in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Öz

Unemployment
is crucial and a chronic problem for many economies due to the its social and
economic cost dimensions. The problem of unemployment, which causes economies
to produce below their potential level of production, can also lead to a number
of social problems. In this study, it was investigated whether unemployment had
any effect on crime rates. The effect of unemployment on crime rates in EU-28
was examined for the period 1993-2016 and dataset were obtained from World Bank
and Eurostat sources. There are numerous studies examining the relationship
between unemployment and crime. However, with this study, it is evaluated that
analyzing this relationship on EU-28 that consists of both developed and
developing countries will provide general information on the relationship
between unemployment and crime rates for all economies. In addition, the fact
that the study was conducted with contemporary methods and datasets provides
up-to-date analysis findings on the subject.

 

In
this study, second generation panel cointegration and causality tests were
applied on EU-28 in order to analyse the relationship between unemployment and
crime rates, and reciprocal dependence between countries. The cointegration
relationship was examined by Westerlund cointegration test and causality
relationship was evaluated by Panel Granger Causality Test. The Westerlund
Cointegration Test’s findings show that there is a long-term relationship
between unemployment and crime rates. At the same time, Panel Granger Causality
Test results revealed that the causality relationship is from unemployment to
crime rates. The results obtained by Panel Dynamic Least Squares method, model
coefficients confirm that increase in unemployment rates positively affect crime
rates. According to the results, the measures to combating of unemployment
reduction can also provides a reduction in crime rates, as in the case of EU-28
countries, this also confirms that by reducing crime rates, societies will be
safer and more prosperious.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unemployment, Crime, Panel Cointegration Analysis, Panel Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

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