Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde İşsizlik ve Suç İlişkisi: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 34, 465 - 484, 13.09.2019
https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.574808

Öz


İşsizlik, sosyal ve ekonomik maliyet boyutlarından dolayı birçok ekonomi için hayati ve kronik bir sorundur. Ekonomilerin potansiyel üretim seviyelerinin altında üretim yapmasına neden olan işsizlik sorunu, bir takım sosyal sorunlara da yol açabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada işsizliğin suç oranlarını etkileyip etkilemediği araştırılmıştır. İşsizliğin AB-28'deki suç oranlarına etkisi 1993-2016 dönemi için incelenmiş ve veri seti Dünya Bankası ve Eurostat kaynaklarından elde edilmiştir. İşsizlik ve suç arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çok sayıda çalışma var. Ancak, bu çalışma ile hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerden oluşan AB-28'de bu ilişkinin analiz edilmesinin, tüm ekonomiler için işsizlik ve suç oranları arasındaki ilişki hakkında genel bilgi sağlayacağı değerlendirilmektedir. Ek olarak, çalışmanın çağdaş yöntem ve veri setleri ile gerçekleştirilmiş olması, konuyla ilgili güncel analiz bulguları sağlamaktadır.

Bu çalışmada, işsizlik ve suç oranları ile ülkeler arasındaki karşılıklı bağımlılık ilişkisini analiz etmek için AB-28'de ikinci nesil panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiş ve nedensellik ilişkisi Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Westerlund Eşbütünleşme Testi’nin bulguları, işsizlik oranı ile suç oranları arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Aynı zamanda Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçları, nedensellik ilişkisinin işsizlikten suç oranlarına kadar olduğunu ortaya koydu. Panel Dinamik En Küçük Kareler yöntemi ile elde edilen sonuçlar, model katsayıları, işsizlik oranlarındaki artışın suç oranlarını olumlu yönde etkilediğini doğrulamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, işsizliğin azaltılmasıyla mücadeleye yönelik tedbirler, AB-28 ülkelerinde olduğu gibi, suç oranlarında da bir düşüş sağlayabilir, bu aynı zamanda suç oranlarının düşürülmesiyle toplumların daha güvenli ve daha refah olacağını da doğrular.

Kaynakça

  • Allen, R. (1996), Socioeconomic Conditions and Property Crime: A Comprehensive Review and Test of the Professional Literature, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 55(3), pp. 293–308.Altindag, D.T. (2012), Crime and Unemployment: Evidence from Europe, International Review of Law and Economics, 32(1), pp. 145-157.Arvanities, T.M. and DeFina, R.H. (2006), Business Cycles and Street Crime, Criminology, 44(1), pp. 139-164.Ata, A.Y. (2011), The Relationship between Wages, Unemployment and Crime: Cross- Sectional Analysis, Labour and Society, 2011(4), pp. 113-134. Baltagi, H.B. (2010), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, New York: John Wiley&Sons. Ltd.Becker G.S. (1968), Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach, Journal of Political Economy, 76, pp. 1169–1217.Bisschop, P. (2014), Did The Recent Unemployment Boom in the Netherlands Affect Crime Rates? Evidence from a 2005-2012 Panel Data Analysis, SEO-Discussion Paper, 78, pp. 1-30.Blomquist, J. and Westerlund, J. (2014), A Non-Stationary Panel Data Investigation of the Unemployment–Crime Relationship, Social Science Research, 44, pp. 114-125.Box, S. (1987), Recession, Crime and Punishment, London: Macmillan Press.Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980), The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), pp. 239- 253.Carmichael, F. and Ward, R. (2001), Male Unemployment and Crime in England and Wales, Economic Letters, 73(1), pp. 111–15.Cerro, A. M. and Meloni, O. (2000), Determinants of the Crime Rate in Argentina During The ‘90s, Estudios de Economia, 27(2), pp. 297–311.Cloward, R. and Ohlin, L. (1960), Delinquency and Opportunity, New York: Free Press.Comertler, N. and Kar, M. (2007), Economic and Social Determinants of the Crime Rate in Turkey: CrossSection Analysis, Journal of Ankara University Social Sciences Faculty, 62(2), pp. 37-57.Dursun, S., Aytaç, S. and Topbaş, F. (2011), The Effects of Unemployment and Income on Crime: A Panel Data Analysis on Turkey, Annales de la Faculté de Droit d’Istanbul, 43(60), pp. 125-138.Ehrlich, I. (1973), Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation, Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), pp. 521–565.Entorf, H. and Spengler, H. (2000), Socioeconomic and Economic Factors of Crime in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data of The German States, International Review of Law and Economics, 20(1), pp. 75-106.Fallahi, F. and Rodríguez, G. (2014), Link between Unemployment and Crime in the US: A Markov-Switching Approach, Social Science Research, 45, pp. 33–45.Ha, O.K. and Andresen M.A. (2017), Unemployment and the Specialization of Criminal Activity: A Neighborhood Analysis, Journal of Criminal Justice, 48, pp. 1-8.Hale, C. and Sabbagh, D. (1991), Testing The Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales, Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 28(4), pp. 400- 417.Hsiao, C. (2007), Panel Data Analysis Advantage and Challenges, TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Statistics and Operations Research, 16(1), pp. 1-22.Kao, C. and Chiang, M. (2001), On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Laliotis, I. (2016), Crime and Unemployment in Greece: Evidence Before and During the Crisis, Economics and Business Letters, 5(1), pp. 10-16.Levitt, S. (2001), Alternative Strategies For Identifying The Link Between Unemployment And Crime, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17(4), pp. 377–390.Luiz J. M., (2001), Temporal Association, the Dynamics of Crime, and Their Economic Determinants: A Time Series Econometric Model of South Africa, Social Indicators Research, 53(1), pp. 33-61.Maddah, M. (2013), An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Theft Crimes, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), pp. 50-53.Melick, M. D. (2003), The Relationship between Crime and Unemployment, The Park Place Economist, 11(1), pp. 30-36.Merton, R. (1938), Social Structure and Anomie, American Sociological Review, 3(5), pp. 672– 682.Oliver, A. (2002), The Economics of Crime: An Analysis of Crime Rates in America, The Park Place Economist, 10(1), pp. 30-35.Papps, K. and Winkelmann R. (2002), Unemployment and Crime: New Evidence for an Old Question, New Zealand Economic Papers, 34(1), pp. 53-71.Pazarlıoglu M.V. and Turgutlu T. (2007), Income, Unemployment and Crime: A Study on Turkey, Finance, Politics and Economic Reviews, 44(513), pp. 63-70.Pesaran, M.H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.Pesaran, M.H. (2007), A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp. 265-312.Pesaran, M. and Yamagata, T. (2008), Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), pp. 50-93.Phillips J. and Land, K.C. (2012), The Link between Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: An Analysis at the County, State, And National Levels, Social Science Research, 41(3), pp. 681–694.Raphael S. and Winter-Ebmer R. (2001), Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime, Journal of Law and Economics, 44(1), pp. 259-283.Scorcu, A. and Cellini, R. (1998), Economic Activity and Crime in The Long Run: An Empirical Investigation on Aggregate Data from Italy, 1951–1994, International Review of Law and Economics, 18(3), pp. 279-292.Swamy, P.A. (1970), Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38(2), pp. 311-323.Tas, N., Dogan, A. and Onder, E. (2014), Identifying the Effect of Unemployment, Divorce Rate and Non-Performing Loan on Crime: A Regional Data Analysis in Turkey, Nigde University IIBF Journal, 7(1), pp. 13-35.Westerlund, J. (2007), Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), pp. 709-748.Yamak, N. and Topbas, F. (2005), Causality Relationship Between Crime and Unemployment, 14th Statistical Research Symposium Proceedings, Ankara, Turkey, 5–6 May, Zuzana, J. and Popli, G. (2015), Examining the Link between Crime and Unemployment: A Time-Series Analysis for Canada, Applied Economics, 47(37), pp. 4007-4019.

Unemployment and Crime Nexus in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 34, 465 - 484, 13.09.2019
https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.574808

Öz

Unemployment
is crucial and a chronic problem for many economies due to the its social and
economic cost dimensions. The problem of unemployment, which causes economies
to produce below their potential level of production, can also lead to a number
of social problems. In this study, it was investigated whether unemployment had
any effect on crime rates. The effect of unemployment on crime rates in EU-28
was examined for the period 1993-2016 and dataset were obtained from World Bank
and Eurostat sources. There are numerous studies examining the relationship
between unemployment and crime. However, with this study, it is evaluated that
analyzing this relationship on EU-28 that consists of both developed and
developing countries will provide general information on the relationship
between unemployment and crime rates for all economies. In addition, the fact
that the study was conducted with contemporary methods and datasets provides
up-to-date analysis findings on the subject.

 





In
this study, second generation panel cointegration and causality tests were
applied on EU-28 in order to analyse the relationship between unemployment and
crime rates, and reciprocal dependence between countries. The cointegration
relationship was examined by Westerlund cointegration test and causality
relationship was evaluated by Panel Granger Causality Test. The Westerlund
Cointegration Test’s findings show that there is a long-term relationship
between unemployment and crime rates. At the same time, Panel Granger Causality
Test results revealed that the causality relationship is from unemployment to
crime rates. The results obtained by Panel Dynamic Least Squares method, model
coefficients confirm that increase in unemployment rates positively affect crime
rates. According to the results, the measures to combating of unemployment
reduction can also provides a reduction in crime rates, as in the case of EU-28
countries, this also confirms that by reducing crime rates, societies will be
safer and more prosperious.

Kaynakça

  • Allen, R. (1996), Socioeconomic Conditions and Property Crime: A Comprehensive Review and Test of the Professional Literature, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 55(3), pp. 293–308.Altindag, D.T. (2012), Crime and Unemployment: Evidence from Europe, International Review of Law and Economics, 32(1), pp. 145-157.Arvanities, T.M. and DeFina, R.H. (2006), Business Cycles and Street Crime, Criminology, 44(1), pp. 139-164.Ata, A.Y. (2011), The Relationship between Wages, Unemployment and Crime: Cross- Sectional Analysis, Labour and Society, 2011(4), pp. 113-134. Baltagi, H.B. (2010), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, New York: John Wiley&Sons. Ltd.Becker G.S. (1968), Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach, Journal of Political Economy, 76, pp. 1169–1217.Bisschop, P. (2014), Did The Recent Unemployment Boom in the Netherlands Affect Crime Rates? Evidence from a 2005-2012 Panel Data Analysis, SEO-Discussion Paper, 78, pp. 1-30.Blomquist, J. and Westerlund, J. (2014), A Non-Stationary Panel Data Investigation of the Unemployment–Crime Relationship, Social Science Research, 44, pp. 114-125.Box, S. (1987), Recession, Crime and Punishment, London: Macmillan Press.Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980), The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), pp. 239- 253.Carmichael, F. and Ward, R. (2001), Male Unemployment and Crime in England and Wales, Economic Letters, 73(1), pp. 111–15.Cerro, A. M. and Meloni, O. (2000), Determinants of the Crime Rate in Argentina During The ‘90s, Estudios de Economia, 27(2), pp. 297–311.Cloward, R. and Ohlin, L. (1960), Delinquency and Opportunity, New York: Free Press.Comertler, N. and Kar, M. (2007), Economic and Social Determinants of the Crime Rate in Turkey: CrossSection Analysis, Journal of Ankara University Social Sciences Faculty, 62(2), pp. 37-57.Dursun, S., Aytaç, S. and Topbaş, F. (2011), The Effects of Unemployment and Income on Crime: A Panel Data Analysis on Turkey, Annales de la Faculté de Droit d’Istanbul, 43(60), pp. 125-138.Ehrlich, I. (1973), Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation, Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), pp. 521–565.Entorf, H. and Spengler, H. (2000), Socioeconomic and Economic Factors of Crime in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data of The German States, International Review of Law and Economics, 20(1), pp. 75-106.Fallahi, F. and Rodríguez, G. (2014), Link between Unemployment and Crime in the US: A Markov-Switching Approach, Social Science Research, 45, pp. 33–45.Ha, O.K. and Andresen M.A. (2017), Unemployment and the Specialization of Criminal Activity: A Neighborhood Analysis, Journal of Criminal Justice, 48, pp. 1-8.Hale, C. and Sabbagh, D. (1991), Testing The Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data from England and Wales, Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 28(4), pp. 400- 417.Hsiao, C. (2007), Panel Data Analysis Advantage and Challenges, TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Statistics and Operations Research, 16(1), pp. 1-22.Kao, C. and Chiang, M. (2001), On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Laliotis, I. (2016), Crime and Unemployment in Greece: Evidence Before and During the Crisis, Economics and Business Letters, 5(1), pp. 10-16.Levitt, S. (2001), Alternative Strategies For Identifying The Link Between Unemployment And Crime, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17(4), pp. 377–390.Luiz J. M., (2001), Temporal Association, the Dynamics of Crime, and Their Economic Determinants: A Time Series Econometric Model of South Africa, Social Indicators Research, 53(1), pp. 33-61.Maddah, M. (2013), An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Theft Crimes, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), pp. 50-53.Melick, M. D. (2003), The Relationship between Crime and Unemployment, The Park Place Economist, 11(1), pp. 30-36.Merton, R. (1938), Social Structure and Anomie, American Sociological Review, 3(5), pp. 672– 682.Oliver, A. (2002), The Economics of Crime: An Analysis of Crime Rates in America, The Park Place Economist, 10(1), pp. 30-35.Papps, K. and Winkelmann R. (2002), Unemployment and Crime: New Evidence for an Old Question, New Zealand Economic Papers, 34(1), pp. 53-71.Pazarlıoglu M.V. and Turgutlu T. (2007), Income, Unemployment and Crime: A Study on Turkey, Finance, Politics and Economic Reviews, 44(513), pp. 63-70.Pesaran, M.H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.Pesaran, M.H. (2007), A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp. 265-312.Pesaran, M. and Yamagata, T. (2008), Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), pp. 50-93.Phillips J. and Land, K.C. (2012), The Link between Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: An Analysis at the County, State, And National Levels, Social Science Research, 41(3), pp. 681–694.Raphael S. and Winter-Ebmer R. (2001), Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime, Journal of Law and Economics, 44(1), pp. 259-283.Scorcu, A. and Cellini, R. (1998), Economic Activity and Crime in The Long Run: An Empirical Investigation on Aggregate Data from Italy, 1951–1994, International Review of Law and Economics, 18(3), pp. 279-292.Swamy, P.A. (1970), Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38(2), pp. 311-323.Tas, N., Dogan, A. and Onder, E. (2014), Identifying the Effect of Unemployment, Divorce Rate and Non-Performing Loan on Crime: A Regional Data Analysis in Turkey, Nigde University IIBF Journal, 7(1), pp. 13-35.Westerlund, J. (2007), Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), pp. 709-748.Yamak, N. and Topbas, F. (2005), Causality Relationship Between Crime and Unemployment, 14th Statistical Research Symposium Proceedings, Ankara, Turkey, 5–6 May, Zuzana, J. and Popli, G. (2015), Examining the Link between Crime and Unemployment: A Time-Series Analysis for Canada, Applied Economics, 47(37), pp. 4007-4019.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Fatih Ayhan 0000-0002-7447-5506

Nurbanu Bursa Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-3747-5870

Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Eylül 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 10 Haziran 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 34

Kaynak Göster

APA Ayhan, F., & Bursa, N. (2019). Unemployment and Crime Nexus in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 17(34), 465-484. https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.574808

Sayın Araştırmacı;

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergimiz Mart 2024 sayısı için öngörülen kontenjanın dolması nedeniyle gönderilecek yeni makaleler Mart sayısı kapsamına alınmayacaktır. 2024'te yayınlanacak olan diğer sayılar için makale kabulümüz devam etmektedir. Bu hususa dikkat ederek yeni makale gönderimi yapmanızı rica ederiz.

Yönetim Bilimler Dergisi Özel Sayı Çağrısı
Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi 2024 yılının Eylül ayında “Endüstri 4.0 ve Dijitalleşmenin Sosyal Bilimlerde Yansımaları” başlıklı bir özel sayı yayınlayacaktır.
Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Biga İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi tarafından 5-6 Temmuz 2024 tarihlerinde çevrimiçi olarak düzenlenecek olan 4. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Konferansı’nda sunum gerçekleştiren yazarların dergi için ücret yatırmasına gerek olmayıp, dekont yerine Konferans Katılım Belgesini sisteme yüklemeleri yeterli olacaktır.
Gönderilen makalelerin derginin yazım kurallarına uygun olması ve DergiPark sistemi üzerinden sisteme yüklenmesi gerekmektedir. Özel sayı ana başlığı ile ilgisiz makaleler değerlendirmeye alınmayacaktır. Makalelerin Özel Sayı seçilerek sisteme yüklenmesi gerekmektedir. Özel sayı için gönderilmemiş makalelerin bu sayıya eklenmesi mümkün olmayacaktır.
Özel Sayı Çalışma Takvimi
Gönderim Başlangıcı: 15 Nisan 2024
Son Gönderim Tarihi: 15 Temmuz 2024
Özel Sayı Yayınlanma Tarihi: Eylül 2024

Dergimize göndereceğiniz çalışmalar linkte yer alan taslak dikkate alınarak hazırlanmalıdır. Çalışmanızı aktaracağınız taslak dergi yazım kurallarına göre düzenlenmiştir. Bu yüzden biçimlendirmeyi ve ana başlıkları değiştirmeden çalışmanızı bu taslağa aktarmanız gerekmektedir.
İngilizce Makale Şablonu için tıklayınız...

Saygılarımızla,