D8 ÜLKELERİNDE KÜRESELLEŞMENİN İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PARKS-KMENTA TAHMİNCİSİ

Abstract

Çalışmada ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi D8 ülkeleri için 1991-2021 döneminde statik panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada öncelikle modelde yatay kesit bağımlılık testi yapılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ardından ikinci kuşak birinci grup Levin, Lin ve Chu (LLC) panel birim kök testi ile serilerin seviye değerlerinde durağan olduğu gözlenmiş, tesadüfi etkiler modeli tercih edilerek Parks Kmenta tahmincisi ile model tahmin edilmiştir. Sonrasında Dumitrescu ve Hurlin panel nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre ekonomik küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisi, politik küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi vardır. Sosyal küreselleşmenin ise işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur. Bu doğrultuda ekonomik küreselleşme arttıkça işsizlik azalma göstermekte, politik küreselleşme arttıkça işsizlik artış göstermektedir. Kontrol değişkeni kişi başına GSYH’nın işsizliği artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan ekonomik küreselleşme ve işsizlik arasında çift yönlü, işsizlikten politik küreselleşmeye ve sosyal küreselleşmeden işsizliğe doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır.

Keywords

• İşsizlik
• Ekonomik Küreselleşme
• Sosyal Küreselleşme
• Siyasal Küreselleşme.

THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN D8 COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE PARKS-KMENTA ESTIMATOR

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic, social and political globalization on unemployment for the D8 countries over the period 1991-2021 using static panel data analyses. In the study, firstly, cross-sectional dependence test was performed and it was determined that cross-sectional dependence exists in the model. Subsequently, stationarity was tested using the second-generation, first-group Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) panel unit root test, which indicated that the series were stationary at level. A random effects model was preferred, and the parameters were estimated using the Parks–Kmenta estimator. Finally, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test was applied. According to the estimation results, economic globalization has a negative and significant effect on unemployment, while political globalization has a positive and significant effect on unemployment. Social globalization has no significant effect on unemployment. Accordingly, unemployment decreases as economic globalization increases, while unemployment increases as political globalization increases. The control variable, GDP per capita, was found to increase unemployment. On the other hand, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and unemployment, and a unidirectional causal relationship from unemployment to political globalization and from social globalization to unemployment.

Keywords

• Unemployment
• Economic Globalization
• Social Globalization
• Political Globalization.

References

1. Adamu, P., Kaliappan, S. R., Bani, Y. ve Nor, M. N. (2017). Impact of globalization on unemployment in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Governance and sustainability of global business economics, global conference on business and economics research (GCBER) 2017, 14-15 August 2017, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia. www.econ.upm.edu.my
2. Ali, A., Khan, Z. ve Ali, S. (2019). Globalization and macroeconomic instability: Evidence from unemployment in Pakistan. Review of Economics and Development Studies, 5(2), 405-412. https://doi.org/10.26710/reads.v5i2.631
3. Altıner, A., Bozkurt, E. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018). The effect of economic globalization on unemployment in emerging market economies. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 22(Özel Sayı 2), 1763-1783.
4. Awad, A. ve Youssof, I. (2016). The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2016.1151069
5. Baltagi, H. B. (2013). Econonometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley and Sons. Çatalbaş Karpat, G. ve Yarar, Ö. (2015). Türkiye'deki bölgeler arası iç göçü etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile belirlenmesi. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(1), 99-117. https://doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.1.5000113446
6. Bildirici, S. S. ve Aytekin, B. (2016). Küreselleşmenin yerel işgücü piyasalarına etkileri. M. Talas ve S. S. Bildirici (Eds.), Fırsat ve tehditleriyle küreselleşme olgusu (s.19-42). Edge Akademi Yayıncılık. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mustafa-Sit/publication/308651525_KURESELLESME-AZGELISMIS_BOLGE_ILISKISI_SORUNUNA_TURKIYE_ICIN_BIR_COZUM_ONERISI_GIRISIMCILIK_EKOSISTEMINI_DOGRU_KULLANMAK/links/57ea439f08ae113df5235ab4/KUeRESELLESME-AZGELISMIS-BOeLGE-ILISKISI-SORUNUNA-TUeRKIYE-ICIN-BIR-COeZUeM-OeNERISI-GIRISIMCILIK-EKOSISTEMINI-DOGRU-KULLANMAK.pdf#page=19
7. Daly, V., Ullah, F., Rauf, A. ve Kahn, G. Y. (2017). Globalization and unemployment in Pakistan. Economics Discussion Papers, 2, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.77.634.643
8. Dumitrescu, E.I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014

9. Effiong, U, E., Udofia, B. ve Okon, J. I. (2020). Globalization and unemployment: Empirical evidence from West African Sub-Region. SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 7(10), 13-21. https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V7I10P103
10. Erer, D. ve Erer, E. (2014). AB ülkelerinde küreselleşmenin işsizlik üzerine etkileri: Mekansal panel veri analizi. Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(2), 21-36.
11. Gozgor, G. (2017). The impact of globalization on the structural unemployment: An empirical reappraisal. International Economic Journal, 31(4), 471-489. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1408666
12. Harms, P. ve Hefeker, C. (2003). Globalization and unemployment: The role of international diversification. Economics Letters, 78(2), 281-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00229-X
13. Iftitah, M. ve Kusumawardani, D. (2022). Effect of globalization on unemployment in ASEAN. JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan), 7(2), 144-168. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v7i2.31140
14. KOF Swiss Economic Institute. (2024). KOF globalisation index. https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
15. Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
16. Lim, S. ve Burgoon, B. (2020). Globalization and support for unemployment spending in Asia: Do Asian citizens want to embed liberalism?. Socio-Economic Review, 18(2), 519-553. https://doi.org/10.30560/rfm.v2n2p73
17. Martensen, F. (2013). Globalization, unemployment, and product cycles: Short-and long-run effects. Working Paper Series, 16, 1-57.
18. Meidani, A. A. N. ve Zabihi, M. (2012). The dynamic effect of globalization on unemployment rate in Iran: A co-integration analysis. International Business Research, 5(1), 120-126. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v5n1p120
19. Mike, F. ve Kardaşlar, A. (2023). Türkiye ekonomisi için ekonomik küreselleşme sürecinin işsizlik oranları üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi. Uluslararası Sosyoloji ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 5(2), 450-463. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10049611
20. Nikolaevich, E. A. ve Aleksandrovna, S. A. (2017). Main areas of globalization influence on the unemployment structure and dynamics in Russia. The Turkish Online Journal of Design, Art and Communication TOJDAC, (Special Edition), 710-721. http://doi.org/10.7456/1070ASE/072
21. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper, 1229, 1-40.
22. Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
23. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
24. Raji, R. O. (2020). Globalization and technological innovation: Which impact on the rise of unemployment?. Risk and Financial Management, 2(2), 73-89. https://doi.org/10.30560/rfm.v2n2p73
25. Seyidoğlu, H. (2015). Uluslararası iktisat. Güzem Can Yayınları.
26. Shahzad, H., Fareed, G., Qamar, N. ve Khan, M.A.U. (2023). Can economic globalization cure unemployment in Pakistan? An empirical investigation. Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences, 6(2), 167-176. https://doi.org/10.47067/ramss.v6i2.300
27. Siddiqa, A., Hussain, T., Qasim, M. ve Javed, M. I. (2018). The impact of globalization on unemployment and economic growth: Panel data analysis for developing countries. Bulletin of Business and Economics, 7(3), 122-131.
28. Suci, S. C. ve Ramdansyah, A. D. (2019). Economic, social and political openness on unemployment in ASEAN. Journal of Economics and Business, 2(4), 1312-1320. https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1992.02.04.170
29. Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2016). Panel veri ekonometrisi. Beta Yayımcılık.
30. Tatoğlu Yerdelen F. (2017). Panel zaman serileri analizi. Beta Basım.
31. Ukpere, W. I. ve Slabbert, A. D. (2009). A relationship between current globalisation, unemployment, inequality and poverty. International Journal of Social Economics, 36(1/2), 37-46. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290910921172
32. World Bank (2024). World development indicators. https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/home